In addition to highlighting under-the-radar games each week, I'll take a few looks at the landscape of the BCS Picture as we head into the final set of BCS games. It's still early, with a few weeks to go before the BCS Standings are first released. Even so, based on the first few weeks of play, I'll go ahead and share my initial thoughts on the first stretch of this final race.
BCS Championship Picture
With 17 teams still undefeated after Week 6, there are so many things that can happen between now and the first weekend of December. Each Power Conference still has at least two teams amongst the unbeatens, and even the lower-ranked ones like Missouri and Texas Tech could hypothetically work their way into the picture if they could run the table. Even Louisville has a shot, though the mightily week schedule might be too much to overcome.
Due to the extra week in the calendar, the season's progressing a little bit slower than before. But in a few weeks, we should be down to roughly half a dozen unbeatens to consider for the annual Halloween "Odd Man Out" debate.
A few one-loss teams remain in the Top 10. Given how early it is, it's hard to say just which teams will even be in contention amongst undefeated teams, much less one-loss teams. I'll go into more detail next time I do one of these posts (probably right around Halloween).
BCS Non-AQ Berth
We're down to two unbeaten non-AQ teams: Northern Illinois and Fresno State. Practically speaking, it's probably Unbeaten or Bust this time around. And just like Utah vs Boise in 2008, and Boise vs TCU in 2009 and 2010, I'm looking forward to one last non-AQ battle for the polls - and just seeing if both can remain undefeated long enough for the battle to matter.
Furthermore, only a handful of teams with a single loss remain from this group, further reducing the likelihood that NIU or Fresno would sustain a "good" loss that would keep them in BCS range. I would guess that if someone could do it with one loss, and it is a longshot as far as I can tell, it would be East Carolina. With a respectable loss early to Virginia Tech, a 12-1 Pirates squad might be able to make their way into the BCS with 2 other wins over ACC teams and competent opponents in Marshall and the C-USA Championship Game.
BCS At-Large Picture
Given how early it is, and with so many undefeated and one-loss teams, so many possibilities still exist. Notre Dame could hypothetically run the table and finish high at 10-2, though I predict they stumble again. In addition, each Power Conference is alive and well so far.
Next time, I'll dive into specifics on how each conference can find itself with 2 BCS bids for this final go-round.
Monday, October 7, 2013
Sunday, October 6, 2013
ACC Wheel of Destiny: After Week 6
Everyone has started conference play, and lines have already been drawn.
Sorry, Maryland, but it looks like you were pretenders this year, and FSU handed you your first going away present with a 63-0 blowout.
Here are this week's scenarios. They all assume the team wins out, and do not account for any multi-way ties (it's still too early to worry about three way ties). All records listed only refer to conference records. "Additional loss" refers to a loss in addition to the one that the mentioned team would hand out while winning out.
Atlantic
Clemson and FSU (both 3-0) are still undefeated.
Maryland (0-1) and Boston College (1-1) each need FSU to lose two games.
Syracuse (0-1) needs 2 Clemson losses.
Wake Forest (1-2) needs 3 Clemson losses, 2 BC losses, and an additional loss by FSU.
NC State (0-2) needs 3 Clemson losses, a Wake Forest loss, an additional loss by FSU.
Coastal
Virginia Tech (2-0) and Miami (1-0) are still undefeated.
Pitt has one loss, but from the other division, so they still control their destiny.
UVA (0-1) needs a Pitt loss.
Georgia Tech (2-2) needs 3 losses by both VT and Miami.
UNC (0-2) needs 3 VT losses and a GT loss, plus an additional loss by Miami.
Duke (0-2) needs 2 Pitt losses, a GT loss, and an additional loss each by VT and Miami.
We're bringing back our magic number, which is the number of losses to guarantee elimination. It is determined by taking the number of conference games left by the leader of the division, subtracting their wins, and adding one.
Atlantic: 6 (the 3-0 teams have 5 games left, so their worst record would be 3-5)
Coastal: 7
As you can see, we've still got a lot more football to play to solidify anything.
We're finally at the point of the season where bowl eligibility can be obtained. No one in the ACC has gotten to that point yet, because the undefeated teams have all had a bye.
One win away: Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Miami
Two wins away: Maryland
No one has denied themselves a bowl, but UNC looks to be trying real hard.
The Road to the ACC Championship appears to run through these games:
October 12:
Pitt @ Virginia Tech
Boston College @ Clemson
October 19:
Florida State @ Clemson
November 9:
Virginia Tech @ Miami
November 29:
Miami @ Pitt
Sorry, Maryland, but it looks like you were pretenders this year, and FSU handed you your first going away present with a 63-0 blowout.
Here are this week's scenarios. They all assume the team wins out, and do not account for any multi-way ties (it's still too early to worry about three way ties). All records listed only refer to conference records. "Additional loss" refers to a loss in addition to the one that the mentioned team would hand out while winning out.
Atlantic
Clemson and FSU (both 3-0) are still undefeated.
Maryland (0-1) and Boston College (1-1) each need FSU to lose two games.
Syracuse (0-1) needs 2 Clemson losses.
Wake Forest (1-2) needs 3 Clemson losses, 2 BC losses, and an additional loss by FSU.
NC State (0-2) needs 3 Clemson losses, a Wake Forest loss, an additional loss by FSU.
Coastal
Virginia Tech (2-0) and Miami (1-0) are still undefeated.
Pitt has one loss, but from the other division, so they still control their destiny.
UVA (0-1) needs a Pitt loss.
Georgia Tech (2-2) needs 3 losses by both VT and Miami.
UNC (0-2) needs 3 VT losses and a GT loss, plus an additional loss by Miami.
Duke (0-2) needs 2 Pitt losses, a GT loss, and an additional loss each by VT and Miami.
We're bringing back our magic number, which is the number of losses to guarantee elimination. It is determined by taking the number of conference games left by the leader of the division, subtracting their wins, and adding one.
Atlantic: 6 (the 3-0 teams have 5 games left, so their worst record would be 3-5)
Coastal: 7
As you can see, we've still got a lot more football to play to solidify anything.
We're finally at the point of the season where bowl eligibility can be obtained. No one in the ACC has gotten to that point yet, because the undefeated teams have all had a bye.
One win away: Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Miami
Two wins away: Maryland
No one has denied themselves a bowl, but UNC looks to be trying real hard.
The Road to the ACC Championship appears to run through these games:
October 12:
Pitt @ Virginia Tech
Boston College @ Clemson
October 19:
Florida State @ Clemson
November 9:
Virginia Tech @ Miami
November 29:
Miami @ Pitt
Monday, September 30, 2013
Under the Radar Games: Week 6
With only three matchups of ranked teams, quite a bit of games could be considered "under the radar" this week. Still, I'll take this over the mess that was Week 4 and all those 70-point blowouts. Plus, as Chip mentioned, conference play is under way - leading to a little more "unpredictability" in terms of matchups and results.
My "under the radar" matchups for this week are as follows:
1. Clemson at Syracuse. Some might not consider this "under the radar" at all, given Clemson's lofty #3 ranking, Syracuse's first ACC conference game, and the Orange's recent upsets of eventual conference champs Louisville and West Virginia. But with the three ranked matchups (MD-FSU, Washington-Stanford, Ohio State at Northwestern in the "Musburger/Herbstreit Bowl") on ESPN networks, Notre Dame - Arizona State on NBC, TCU-Oklahoma on FOX, and Georgia-Tennessee on CBS, I feel this one could be unwisely overlooked.
2. West Virginia at Baylor. What a rebound for the Mountaineers, upsetting Oklahoma State just a week after getting massively shut out by Maryland! It seems their offense and defense have switched places from 2012. And Baylor certainly has looked the part in the early part of 2013, putting up over 200 points in only 3 games and giving up only a handful! With 2 bye weeks now behind the Bears, it's up to Art Briles and his crew to get rolling in conference play. The results of this game will paint a better picture of how the Big 12's contenders really shake out.
3. Fresno State at Idaho. It seems I always have a Fresno State game in this list, even if the opponent is no good. And last week's game at Hawaii nearly saw a 30+ point Fresno collapse against the winless Rainbow Warriors! This game provides a HUGE opportunity to compare this year's last 2 undefeated non-AQ teams. Northern Illinois played at Idaho a couple weeks ago, but needed a strong comeback effort to pull off the win. The Bulldogs can help distinguish itself from the Huskies this week by defeating the Vandals in a convincing fashion. And while Fresno and NIU may both very well be within BCS Range (Top 12, or Top 16 and higher than an AQ Champ) if they go undefeated, only the higher of the two within that range is guaranteed a BCS Bowl.
4. Arkansas at Florida. This game has implications on a few levels. Within the game itself, Arkansas and Florida are in great need of this win. For the Razorbacks, a rebound after two straight losses in respectable efforts against Rutgers and even Texas A&M would surely go far in demonstrating the program's growth. For the Gators, a win would signify that Florida can indeed compete against just more than the bottom-level SEC teams. Also of significance is how each team can impact the greater picture; Florida represents Miami's signature win and could help the Hurricanes in a Strength-of-Schedule debate further down the road, while Arkansas represents a solid win for Rutgers and the American Conference (and, by extension, Fresno State and its BCS-Busting aspirations).
5. Texas at Iowa State. I almost didn't put this one down, thinking "surely Iowa State isn't going to threaten a resilient Longhorns team." But just how resilient are these Longhorn players? After the sudden firings at USC and UConn this week, I think we'll get a chance to see just how "in it" Texas is with Mack Brown - especially with Oklahoma right around the corner. If the Longhorns are truly with their coach, and play focused, then my initial thought should be proven correct with a decisive Texas win that would put them 2-0 in the Big 12.
My "under the radar" matchups for this week are as follows:
1. Clemson at Syracuse. Some might not consider this "under the radar" at all, given Clemson's lofty #3 ranking, Syracuse's first ACC conference game, and the Orange's recent upsets of eventual conference champs Louisville and West Virginia. But with the three ranked matchups (MD-FSU, Washington-Stanford, Ohio State at Northwestern in the "Musburger/Herbstreit Bowl") on ESPN networks, Notre Dame - Arizona State on NBC, TCU-Oklahoma on FOX, and Georgia-Tennessee on CBS, I feel this one could be unwisely overlooked.
2. West Virginia at Baylor. What a rebound for the Mountaineers, upsetting Oklahoma State just a week after getting massively shut out by Maryland! It seems their offense and defense have switched places from 2012. And Baylor certainly has looked the part in the early part of 2013, putting up over 200 points in only 3 games and giving up only a handful! With 2 bye weeks now behind the Bears, it's up to Art Briles and his crew to get rolling in conference play. The results of this game will paint a better picture of how the Big 12's contenders really shake out.
3. Fresno State at Idaho. It seems I always have a Fresno State game in this list, even if the opponent is no good. And last week's game at Hawaii nearly saw a 30+ point Fresno collapse against the winless Rainbow Warriors! This game provides a HUGE opportunity to compare this year's last 2 undefeated non-AQ teams. Northern Illinois played at Idaho a couple weeks ago, but needed a strong comeback effort to pull off the win. The Bulldogs can help distinguish itself from the Huskies this week by defeating the Vandals in a convincing fashion. And while Fresno and NIU may both very well be within BCS Range (Top 12, or Top 16 and higher than an AQ Champ) if they go undefeated, only the higher of the two within that range is guaranteed a BCS Bowl.
4. Arkansas at Florida. This game has implications on a few levels. Within the game itself, Arkansas and Florida are in great need of this win. For the Razorbacks, a rebound after two straight losses in respectable efforts against Rutgers and even Texas A&M would surely go far in demonstrating the program's growth. For the Gators, a win would signify that Florida can indeed compete against just more than the bottom-level SEC teams. Also of significance is how each team can impact the greater picture; Florida represents Miami's signature win and could help the Hurricanes in a Strength-of-Schedule debate further down the road, while Arkansas represents a solid win for Rutgers and the American Conference (and, by extension, Fresno State and its BCS-Busting aspirations).
5. Texas at Iowa State. I almost didn't put this one down, thinking "surely Iowa State isn't going to threaten a resilient Longhorns team." But just how resilient are these Longhorn players? After the sudden firings at USC and UConn this week, I think we'll get a chance to see just how "in it" Texas is with Mack Brown - especially with Oklahoma right around the corner. If the Longhorns are truly with their coach, and play focused, then my initial thought should be proven correct with a decisive Texas win that would put them 2-0 in the Big 12.
Sunday, September 29, 2013
Games to Watch: Week 6
Big weekend, as conference play is fully underway and conference races start to form. However, we don't have a lot of flashy matchups that generate interest outside of the conference, but become important down the road.
At least it's October, and that means that Homecomings start happening around the country!
Nothing of note on Thursday or Friday, unless Tony finds one under the radar.
Normally, I try to focus on the games that I would be flipping around if I were able to just sit on the couch and watch football all day. Since I know I'll be in Blacksburg and probably only watching the Tech game, this week's list is largely following the ACC divisional races.
Saturday
11:30 AM
Air Force at Navy, CBS. This one is often overlooked in favor of the big Army-Navy game in December, but this one usually determines who wins the Commander-in-Chief trophy.
Noon
Maryland at Florida State, ESPN. The ACC Atlantic has four teams that control their destiny, and these are two of them, primarily due to Maryland not playing any ACC games up to this point. After a couple of strong starts followed by major sizzles the last few seasons, Maryland looks to be improved this year, even achieving a ranking. FSU hasn't missed a step while breaking in a new QB, who could be one of the hottest underclassmen in the country.
12:30 PM
North Carolina at Virginia Tech, ACC Network. VT's Homecoming, so I'll be in Lane Stadium for this one. Hopefully, VT builds on their momentum from the big Thursday night win at Georgia Tech. The defense is top notch, and the offense seems to be making steps. This is also big for UNC, who is looking to stay in contention. Getting a second conference loss can seriously hurt that.
3:30 PM
Georgia Tech at Miami, ESPNU. GT is looking to rebound from their first loss, while Miami is looking for a strong start to their conference schedule. This game will play a big role in the ACC Coastal race.
Clemson at Syracuse, ABC/ESPN2. Poor Syracuse has to play their first ACC conference game against the team favored to win the entire conference. Between this and the Maryland/FSU matchup, we should start seeing some separation in the ACC Atlantic.
8 PM
Ohio State at Northwestern, ABC. Another test for Ohio State to see if they're the real deal.
At least it's October, and that means that Homecomings start happening around the country!
Nothing of note on Thursday or Friday, unless Tony finds one under the radar.
Normally, I try to focus on the games that I would be flipping around if I were able to just sit on the couch and watch football all day. Since I know I'll be in Blacksburg and probably only watching the Tech game, this week's list is largely following the ACC divisional races.
Saturday
11:30 AM
Air Force at Navy, CBS. This one is often overlooked in favor of the big Army-Navy game in December, but this one usually determines who wins the Commander-in-Chief trophy.
Noon
Maryland at Florida State, ESPN. The ACC Atlantic has four teams that control their destiny, and these are two of them, primarily due to Maryland not playing any ACC games up to this point. After a couple of strong starts followed by major sizzles the last few seasons, Maryland looks to be improved this year, even achieving a ranking. FSU hasn't missed a step while breaking in a new QB, who could be one of the hottest underclassmen in the country.
12:30 PM
North Carolina at Virginia Tech, ACC Network. VT's Homecoming, so I'll be in Lane Stadium for this one. Hopefully, VT builds on their momentum from the big Thursday night win at Georgia Tech. The defense is top notch, and the offense seems to be making steps. This is also big for UNC, who is looking to stay in contention. Getting a second conference loss can seriously hurt that.
3:30 PM
Georgia Tech at Miami, ESPNU. GT is looking to rebound from their first loss, while Miami is looking for a strong start to their conference schedule. This game will play a big role in the ACC Coastal race.
Clemson at Syracuse, ABC/ESPN2. Poor Syracuse has to play their first ACC conference game against the team favored to win the entire conference. Between this and the Maryland/FSU matchup, we should start seeing some separation in the ACC Atlantic.
8 PM
Ohio State at Northwestern, ABC. Another test for Ohio State to see if they're the real deal.
Saturday, September 28, 2013
ACC Wheel of Destiny: Heading into Week 6
By the end of week 6, all of the ACC teams will have started conference play. However, we already have an interesting set of scenarios.
No team has been officially eliminated yet, but a couple have dug really deep holes. Below are the scenarios for each team to win their division. These are the quickest and easiest scenarios, which basically relies on each team to win out their remaining ACC games. There is a possibility some of the teams near the bottom have easier paths, but that would require multi-team ties. It's too early in the season to worry about a 3 way tie between 2-loss teams.
Any records mentioned below only refer to conference records. Any losses mentioned as needed below are in addition to however that team already has, if any.
Atlantic
Clemson and FSU are sitting at the top undefeated. Maryland and Syracuse have not started conference play. If any of those four teams win out, they take the division.
Boston College (1-1) needs to win out and have FSU lose two games.
NC State (0-1) needs to win out and have Clemson lose two games.
Wake Forest is in the biggest hole with 2 losses. In addition to winning out, they need 3 Clemson losses, 2 BC losses, and a loss each by FSU, Maryland, and Syracuse. For those last three losses, it is in addition to the hypothetical loss WF would be handing each of them while winning out.
Coastal
Virginia Tech (1-0) is the only team in the division that has started conference play and not lost.
Miami has not started conference play.
Pitt's (2-1) only loss comes from FSU. So, if they win out, they still have 1 loss, but would win all of the head-to-head tiebreakers.
Georgia Tech (2-1) needs 2 VT losses.
UVA (0-1) needs a Pitt loss.
UNC (0-1) needs a GT loss.
Duke (0-2) needs 2 Pitt losses, 2 GT losses, and a loss each by VT and Miami (in both cases, in addition to the loss Duke would need to hand them).
Short version:
Clemson, FSU, Maryland, and Syracuse control their destiny in the Atlantic.
Virginia Tech, Miami, and Pitt control their destiny in the Coastal.
Wake Forest and Duke are just about screwed.
Everyone else has a little bit of a chance.
Each week, I will present a list of key ACC games that will shape the road to the conference championship. As the season goes on, games will be added, and I'm sure some will be removed as circumstances change.
The Road to the ACC Championship begins in earnest on October 5:
Georgia Tech @ Miami
Maryland @ Florida State
Clemson @ Syracuse
North Carolina @ Virginia Tech
At this point, we'll see some separation in the conference race, especially as the final 3 teams start their conference schedule.
October 12:
Pitt @ Virginia Tech
Boston College @ Clemson
October 19:
Florida State @ Clemson
November 9:
Virginia Tech @ Miami
November 14:
Georgia Tech @ Clemson
November 29:
Miami @ Pitt
It'll be fun to see which team gets eliminated from contention first. It will probably still take a few more weeks to officially eliminate anybody, as we saw last year. GT should have been done after their third conference game, but they were helped out by sanctions on two other teams.
And the wheel keeps turning...
No team has been officially eliminated yet, but a couple have dug really deep holes. Below are the scenarios for each team to win their division. These are the quickest and easiest scenarios, which basically relies on each team to win out their remaining ACC games. There is a possibility some of the teams near the bottom have easier paths, but that would require multi-team ties. It's too early in the season to worry about a 3 way tie between 2-loss teams.
Any records mentioned below only refer to conference records. Any losses mentioned as needed below are in addition to however that team already has, if any.
Atlantic
Clemson and FSU are sitting at the top undefeated. Maryland and Syracuse have not started conference play. If any of those four teams win out, they take the division.
Boston College (1-1) needs to win out and have FSU lose two games.
NC State (0-1) needs to win out and have Clemson lose two games.
Wake Forest is in the biggest hole with 2 losses. In addition to winning out, they need 3 Clemson losses, 2 BC losses, and a loss each by FSU, Maryland, and Syracuse. For those last three losses, it is in addition to the hypothetical loss WF would be handing each of them while winning out.
Coastal
Virginia Tech (1-0) is the only team in the division that has started conference play and not lost.
Miami has not started conference play.
Pitt's (2-1) only loss comes from FSU. So, if they win out, they still have 1 loss, but would win all of the head-to-head tiebreakers.
Georgia Tech (2-1) needs 2 VT losses.
UVA (0-1) needs a Pitt loss.
UNC (0-1) needs a GT loss.
Duke (0-2) needs 2 Pitt losses, 2 GT losses, and a loss each by VT and Miami (in both cases, in addition to the loss Duke would need to hand them).
Short version:
Clemson, FSU, Maryland, and Syracuse control their destiny in the Atlantic.
Virginia Tech, Miami, and Pitt control their destiny in the Coastal.
Wake Forest and Duke are just about screwed.
Everyone else has a little bit of a chance.
Each week, I will present a list of key ACC games that will shape the road to the conference championship. As the season goes on, games will be added, and I'm sure some will be removed as circumstances change.
The Road to the ACC Championship begins in earnest on October 5:
Georgia Tech @ Miami
Maryland @ Florida State
Clemson @ Syracuse
North Carolina @ Virginia Tech
At this point, we'll see some separation in the conference race, especially as the final 3 teams start their conference schedule.
October 12:
Pitt @ Virginia Tech
Boston College @ Clemson
October 19:
Florida State @ Clemson
November 9:
Virginia Tech @ Miami
November 14:
Georgia Tech @ Clemson
November 29:
Miami @ Pitt
It'll be fun to see which team gets eliminated from contention first. It will probably still take a few more weeks to officially eliminate anybody, as we saw last year. GT should have been done after their third conference game, but they were helped out by sanctions on two other teams.
And the wheel keeps turning...
Tuesday, September 24, 2013
Under the Radar Games: Week 5
Last week, Chip was the one who went to a live game, a triple overtime Hokie win over Marshall. Virginia Tech is now 2-0 in overtime games in Lane Stadium, and he happened to be present at both (the other being the 2012 opener against Georgia Tech, which I also attended).
This time around, I'll be the one hitting the road. For the 2nd straight year, I'll be at the VT-GT game, this time in Atlanta at historic Bobby Dodd Stadium. And although Chip already mentioned it in his Games list, I've got it down as a "national" under-the-radar game of the week.
1. Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech. As a Hokie, my interest in the game is obvious. It's no secret that major steps are needed in the Hokie offense if they want to go toe-to-toe with the Yellow Jackets. The defense remains stellar, however, and should do its part in making this yet another ACC Classic. For Georgia Tech, a win here would mark the 3rd straight conference win, all over Coastal opponents, make a great case for them to get ranked, and give them a sense of confidence heading into a serious showdown with Miami the following Saturday.
2. Fresno State at Hawaii. After netting solid, albeit nail-biting, wins over Rutgers and Boise State so far this season, Fresno State is looking like it will be a legitimate contender in the game of BCS Busting. And Hawaii's pretty bad, so one may see this as a walk-over for the Bulldogs. But...watch out. Fresno has a history of beating some significant teams, and then finding a way to lost to inferior conference competition. This weekend begins the run - can Fresno beat the teams they're supposed to, starting this weekend over in the islands of Hawaii, and find their way to the BCS?
3. Northern Illinois at Purdue. After nearly losing to an FCS team last Saturday, and Idaho before that, Northern Illinois is NOT going to win favor over Fresno in this year's race to bust the BCS (assuming both continue undefeated), but as long as they do remain unbeaten, two road wins against Big Ten teams will still look impressive once all is said and done. Purdue has what it takes to rebound and deliver the killing blow to the MAC's busting hopes - and for two reasons. First, their game against Notre Dame showed that they're on the rise, even if it is a slow and gradual one that misses a bowl game. Second, Darrell Hazel, head coach of Purdue, was last year's Kent State coach, who got knocked out of BCS contention in its triple overtime loss against NIU (albeit with a different head Huskie).
4. South Carolina at UCF. The Gamecocks have looked good so far, but not quite as "in it" as they were a year ago. They travel to Orlando to take on a UCF team that is poised to make a statement - particularly after knocking off Penn State. South Carolina and the SEC need this one to keep one of its title contenders alive in the national race, while the American could greatly use this win to at least help the cause of UCF or Louisville, should either go 12-0, toward any realistic national title consideration.
5. Arizona at Washington. A PAC-12 North vs South battle, between two undefeated teams. The Huskies have the benefit of a strong game against Boise State, while the Wildcats seem to be looking for some respect. As much credit as the North gets with Oregon and Stanford running the show, it's easy to overlook some talent on the other side. UCLA is my personal favorite in the South, but Arizona looks to be one of those "tricky" teams that could give the rest of the conference a run for its money.
This time around, I'll be the one hitting the road. For the 2nd straight year, I'll be at the VT-GT game, this time in Atlanta at historic Bobby Dodd Stadium. And although Chip already mentioned it in his Games list, I've got it down as a "national" under-the-radar game of the week.
1. Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech. As a Hokie, my interest in the game is obvious. It's no secret that major steps are needed in the Hokie offense if they want to go toe-to-toe with the Yellow Jackets. The defense remains stellar, however, and should do its part in making this yet another ACC Classic. For Georgia Tech, a win here would mark the 3rd straight conference win, all over Coastal opponents, make a great case for them to get ranked, and give them a sense of confidence heading into a serious showdown with Miami the following Saturday.
2. Fresno State at Hawaii. After netting solid, albeit nail-biting, wins over Rutgers and Boise State so far this season, Fresno State is looking like it will be a legitimate contender in the game of BCS Busting. And Hawaii's pretty bad, so one may see this as a walk-over for the Bulldogs. But...watch out. Fresno has a history of beating some significant teams, and then finding a way to lost to inferior conference competition. This weekend begins the run - can Fresno beat the teams they're supposed to, starting this weekend over in the islands of Hawaii, and find their way to the BCS?
3. Northern Illinois at Purdue. After nearly losing to an FCS team last Saturday, and Idaho before that, Northern Illinois is NOT going to win favor over Fresno in this year's race to bust the BCS (assuming both continue undefeated), but as long as they do remain unbeaten, two road wins against Big Ten teams will still look impressive once all is said and done. Purdue has what it takes to rebound and deliver the killing blow to the MAC's busting hopes - and for two reasons. First, their game against Notre Dame showed that they're on the rise, even if it is a slow and gradual one that misses a bowl game. Second, Darrell Hazel, head coach of Purdue, was last year's Kent State coach, who got knocked out of BCS contention in its triple overtime loss against NIU (albeit with a different head Huskie).
4. South Carolina at UCF. The Gamecocks have looked good so far, but not quite as "in it" as they were a year ago. They travel to Orlando to take on a UCF team that is poised to make a statement - particularly after knocking off Penn State. South Carolina and the SEC need this one to keep one of its title contenders alive in the national race, while the American could greatly use this win to at least help the cause of UCF or Louisville, should either go 12-0, toward any realistic national title consideration.
5. Arizona at Washington. A PAC-12 North vs South battle, between two undefeated teams. The Huskies have the benefit of a strong game against Boise State, while the Wildcats seem to be looking for some respect. As much credit as the North gets with Oregon and Stanford running the show, it's easy to overlook some talent on the other side. UCLA is my personal favorite in the South, but Arizona looks to be one of those "tricky" teams that could give the rest of the conference a run for its money.
ACC Wheel of Destiny: Week 5
Both divisions are still wide open, but some teams are already in a hole.
Any records mentioned in this post only refer to conference records.
Atlantic:
FSU, Clemson, and BC are undefeated in conference play.
Maryland and Syracuse haven't started conference games.
Wake Forest and NC State each have one loss, both to division foes.
Controls destiny: FSU, Clemson, BC, Maryland, Syracuse
Needs 2 losses from another team: WF, NC State.
Coastal:
GT has the undefeated lead.
Pitt is 1-1, with the loss coming from the other division.
Miami, VT, and UVA haven't started conference play.
UNC has lost 1 game, and Duke has lost two. Both lost to GT.
Controls destiny: GT, Miami, VT, UVA, Pitt
Needs 2 losses from another team: UNC
Needs 3 losses from another team: Duke
No one is officially out at this point, since the ACC is known for wild and crazy finishes. At least there are no sanctions this year. Although it looks like Duke is pretty much screwed. Pitt has the shakiest control of their destiny. Because their loss is from the other division, they can still run the table on the Coastal side and win all of the tiebreakers.
Week 5 has four conference matchups, which should cause some separation on both sides.
Any records mentioned in this post only refer to conference records.
Atlantic:
FSU, Clemson, and BC are undefeated in conference play.
Maryland and Syracuse haven't started conference games.
Wake Forest and NC State each have one loss, both to division foes.
Controls destiny: FSU, Clemson, BC, Maryland, Syracuse
Needs 2 losses from another team: WF, NC State.
Coastal:
GT has the undefeated lead.
Pitt is 1-1, with the loss coming from the other division.
Miami, VT, and UVA haven't started conference play.
UNC has lost 1 game, and Duke has lost two. Both lost to GT.
Controls destiny: GT, Miami, VT, UVA, Pitt
Needs 2 losses from another team: UNC
Needs 3 losses from another team: Duke
No one is officially out at this point, since the ACC is known for wild and crazy finishes. At least there are no sanctions this year. Although it looks like Duke is pretty much screwed. Pitt has the shakiest control of their destiny. Because their loss is from the other division, they can still run the table on the Coastal side and win all of the tiebreakers.
Week 5 has four conference matchups, which should cause some separation on both sides.
Games to Watch: Week 5
Okay, so we're finally through the first four weeks, which means most teams are fully into their conference schedules. We shouldn't have any more weeks of multiple 70 point beatdowns.
Thursday
7:30 PM
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, ESPN. This game has always mattered for the ACC Coastal. Until last year, the winner won the division. This is the only VT game on Thursday nights this year, and it's away. Unfortunately, it's also five days after a 3OT marathon against Marshall. I don't know why ESPN and the ACC didn't extend these teams the courtesy of a bye before their Thursday game as they have done in years past...especially when there are two byes built into this season.
Saturday
Noon
Oklahoma State at West Virginia, ESPN. I had a hard time picking this game, because WVU seems so uneven this year. But a lot of familiar faces have left the Big 12, so the entire conference could be up for grabs.
12:30 PM
Virginia at Pitt, ACC Network. Another spin of the ACC Wheel of Destiny. Last week, Pitt edged out Duke by 3 in a game that was allergic to defense.
3:30 PM
LSU at Georgia, CBS. This game is pivotal for the SEC, and possibly national championship.
Oklahoma at Notre Dame, NBC. ND has been scheduling a lot of ranked teams close to them in the polls, and it could go either way.
6:30 PM
Ole Miss at Alabama, ESPN. Alabama's second conference game, and second game against a ranked team. This could be fun.
8 PM
Wisconsin at Ohio State, ABC. Ohio State is in an interesting position. They looked a bit shaky in the first couple of weeks, and then their backup quarterback has been blowing it up the last two weeks. Might there be a controversy?
Thursday
7:30 PM
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, ESPN. This game has always mattered for the ACC Coastal. Until last year, the winner won the division. This is the only VT game on Thursday nights this year, and it's away. Unfortunately, it's also five days after a 3OT marathon against Marshall. I don't know why ESPN and the ACC didn't extend these teams the courtesy of a bye before their Thursday game as they have done in years past...especially when there are two byes built into this season.
Saturday
Noon
Oklahoma State at West Virginia, ESPN. I had a hard time picking this game, because WVU seems so uneven this year. But a lot of familiar faces have left the Big 12, so the entire conference could be up for grabs.
12:30 PM
Virginia at Pitt, ACC Network. Another spin of the ACC Wheel of Destiny. Last week, Pitt edged out Duke by 3 in a game that was allergic to defense.
3:30 PM
LSU at Georgia, CBS. This game is pivotal for the SEC, and possibly national championship.
Oklahoma at Notre Dame, NBC. ND has been scheduling a lot of ranked teams close to them in the polls, and it could go either way.
6:30 PM
Ole Miss at Alabama, ESPN. Alabama's second conference game, and second game against a ranked team. This could be fun.
8 PM
Wisconsin at Ohio State, ABC. Ohio State is in an interesting position. They looked a bit shaky in the first couple of weeks, and then their backup quarterback has been blowing it up the last two weeks. Might there be a controversy?
Tuesday, September 17, 2013
Under the Radar Games: Week 4
Without too many high-profile games this week, it could be an interesting one for teams that might be looking ahead to bigger things. Add a couple "prove it" games, and I think this could be a great weekend yet. I have a few on tap for this week...enjoy!
1. Boise State at Fresno State. A key Mountain West matchup on Friday night, when anything can happen. The mid-2000s saw this as a fierce rivalry, but it's been rather one-sided in Boise's favor since they began BCS-busting back in '06. Fresno has a very real shot at being this year's BCS Buster, and this game will be key in the Bulldogs' chances.
2. Arkansas at Rutgers. Two teams that have something to prove. Even though Rutgers lost narrowly to Fresno State on opening night, they did beat the Razorbacks last year in Arkansas. I think the winner of this non-conference game should get a good bit of confidence heading into conference play.
3. SMU at Texas A&M. After such a wild game with Alabama, one that ended in a loss, I have to wonder where the Aggies go from here. Perhaps they'll be motivated, knowing that they hung 42 on the near-unanimous #1 team in the land and their "legendary" defense. But on the other hand, I can see the potential for a bit of a hangover, against an SMU team that will surely be motivated for them.
4. Utah at BYU. BYU's big win against Texas is looking just a bit dimmer, after Ole Miss accomplished a similar beatdown of the Longhorns just one week later. But after dropping a few in a row to their bitter rivals from Salt Lake City, the Cougars are looking to get back on track against a rebuilding Utah team. With the game in Provo, BYU could be looking for its second big win of this young season.
5. Purdue at Wisconsin. Wisconsin figures to vent some serious frustration after last week's controversial loss at Arizona State. But, if they instead opt for the hangover, then they could find themselves in trouble against a Purdue team that kept it a bit too close for Notre Dame. Remember Wisconsin's talented 2011 team...after a heartbreaking last-second loss to Michigan State, they turned around and lost to Ohio State the following week (an Ohio State that finished 6-7). Hopefully this Badger team can learn from that mini-disaster from 2 years ago.
Pac-12 officials have standards?
From a Yahoo! Sports article:
''This was an unusual situation to end the game,'' Pac-12 Commissioner Larry Scott said in a statement on Monday. ''After a thorough review, we have determined that the officials fell short of the high standard in which Pac-12 games should be managed. We will continue to work with all our officials to ensure this type of situation never occurs again.''
What high standard? Pac-12 refs have shown time and time again that they can't properly officiate a game. Just ask Danny Coale in the 2012 Sugar Bowl.
''This was an unusual situation to end the game,'' Pac-12 Commissioner Larry Scott said in a statement on Monday. ''After a thorough review, we have determined that the officials fell short of the high standard in which Pac-12 games should be managed. We will continue to work with all our officials to ensure this type of situation never occurs again.''
What high standard? Pac-12 refs have shown time and time again that they can't properly officiate a game. Just ask Danny Coale in the 2012 Sugar Bowl.
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