Monday, January 27, 2014

College Football Playoffs explained

Like any football system, the College Football Playoff can seem complicated, so we're here to simplify things.  Keep in mind that the CFP system is only currently set up for 12 years, at which point it will be renewed or expanded.

Does anyone else see the irony that the name "Bowl Championship Series" actually would have been more appropriate with this new system than what it replaced?

The Players:  Power Conferences and the "Group of 5"
Where there were six BCS conferences, we only have five power conferences guaranteed to make appearances in the six CFP bowls:
-ACC
-Big Ten
-Big 12
-Pac-12
-SEC

The "Group of 5" includes:
-American Athletic Conference (formerly Big East)
-Conference USA
-MAC
-Mountain West
-Sun Belt

"Group of 5" or G5 refers to the conferences formerly labled as "mid-major" or "non-AQ" (as in they were not automatic qualifiers for the BCS).  The highest ranked champion out of this group will be guaranteed a spot in one of the spotlight bowls, unless they qualify for a playoff appearance.

The Setting:  Bowl Games
Six bowls are part of the College Football Playoff rotation.  Two will be the semi-finals, and the other four will be spotlight games showing off the other conference champions and highly ranked teams, similar to the BCS system.  These bowls were all originally planned to all be played on two days around New Years, thus the title of "New Year's Six".  Originally, the two semi-final games were scheduled to both be played on the same day, either New Year's Eve or New Year's Day, and the other four would fill in around them.  After some pushback in the second year of the CFP and lower ratings, the New Year's Six started getting spread out.

Currently, the Rose and Sugar Bowls will always be played on January 1, except for years where that is a Sunday, and thus they will be played on January 2.  When those two bowls are not semi-finals, the semi-finals will be played on the last Saturday or federally observed holiday of the calendar year.  For example, the 2021 semi-finals will be played on Friday, December 31, as that day is observed as a federal holiday.

The bowl games that are not semi-finals will be slotted into the schedule where they can fit.  Usually, one will be played in the early afternoon of January 1 prior to the Rose Bowl, and the other might be the early afternoon prior to the semi-finals, or in primetime on a nearby night.

The Championship Game is usually played on the first Monday after January 2, but sometimes is pushed a week later.

In the years that the bowl in question does not host a semi-final game, they will host the following teams:
Rose Bowl - Big Ten vs. Pac-12 champs
Sugar Bowl - SEC vs. Big 12 champs
Orange Bowl - ACC Champ vs. a pool of SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame (explained below)
Cotton, Fiesta, Peach Bowls - at-large teams, including the "Group of 5" qualifier

In years where one of those bowls is a semi-final game, the teams that would have appeared will be moved to another bowl.  That setup is similar to how the BCS worked prior to the addition of the fifth game.

The Peach Bowl has regained its proper name after being the Chick-fil-a Bowl for the 8 years prior to the formation of the CFP.

Semi-final Rotation
Each bowl will host a playoff semi-final every three years, as part of a paired rotation.

Year 1:  Rose and Sugar
Year 2:  Orange and Cotton
Year 3:  Fiesta and Peach

Championship Rotation
The CFP championship game will be shopped out to the highest bidder, similar to how the NFL rotates the Super Bowl location.  A semi-final bowl cannot host the national championship, but other New Year's Six bowl sites can.  A full list of championship locations can be found at Wikipedia.  Through the first decade of the CFP, the only semi-final site to not host a national championship is the Rose Bowl.

Seeding
The semi-finals will work as #1 vs. #4, and #2 vs. #3.  The committee will seed the teams so the top two seeds will not play in a "road" environment.

For example, I suspect that means that if an ACC team is in the top two, they would play in the Sugar, Orange, or Peach Bowl, while a Pac-12 team would be more likely to be in the Rose, Cotton, or Fiesta Bowls.  If an SEC team is in the top two, they would play in either the Sugar or Peach Bowls in years 1 and 3.  In year 2, it could depend on which team is playing, as an SEC East team would be closer to the Orange Bowl, but an SEC West team would be closer to the Cotton Bowl.

The Orange Bowl
While the other bowls are fairly straightforward in their selection of teams, the Orange Bowl is a little more complicated.

Basically, they put the ACC champ against the highest ranked team out of the SEC, Big Ten, or Notre Dame after the semi-finals have been set, and the Rose and Sugar Bowls have picked their teams.

We've put together a more detailed example here.

Now, there are still a few other rules and qualifiers that have to be implemented.

Rematch rule:  If the highest ranked team would result in a regular season rematch, the Orange Bowl can skip down to the next team on the list.  The team that is skipped over would then be guaranteed a spot in one of the other bowls, if they qualify for a spotlight bowl.  For instance, if Clemson is the ACC team, and South Carolina is the highest ranked team on the list, SC would probably be skipped, since they always play Clemson in the final regular season game.  However, SC will be guaranteed a spot in one of the other spotlight bowls.

SEC/Big Ten Champs:  When the Rose and Sugar Bowls are semi-final games, and the SEC and/or Big Ten champs are displaced, they cannot go to the Orange Bowl.

Citrus Bowl:  When a Big Ten team appears in the Orange Bowl, the ACC then gains access to the Citrus Bowl.

During the 8 non-semifinal years of this first 12 year cycle, Notre Dame can only appear a maximum of twice, while the SEC and Big Ten are both guaranteed a minimum of three appearances each.  I'm sure things could get interesting in the final years of the cycle, when the quotas start coming into play.

While Notre Dame has access to most other ACC bowls, they cannot take the place of the ACC champion in the Orange Bowl.  If they appear in the Orange Bowl, they will be playing against an ACC team.

Group of Five rotation
In order to keep each of the at-large bowls happy, the committee has decided to rotating the Group of Five participant around each year.

Year 1:  Peach Bowl
Year 2:  Fiesta Bowl
Year 3:  Cotton Bowl

The Cotton Bowl destination in year three is a necessity since the two semi-final games are "at-large" bowls.

Selection Process
Instead of polls, the College Football Playoff will be determined by a committee that determines their own rankings.  The committee will release rankings weekly starting in late October.  That committee not only selects the four teams for the playoff, but also the at-large teams available for the rest of the New Year's Six bowls.  There is no limit on how many teams from one conference can participate among the six bowls.

The selection process is slightly different for each year of the rotation.

Year 1
Step 1:  Teams #1-4 are placed in the Rose and Sugar Bowls.
Step 2:  The ACC champion is placed into the Orange Bowl, unless they are in the semi-finals, in which case the Orange Bowl gets the next highest ranked ACC team.
Step 3:  Any champions from the Big Ten, Pac-12, Big 12, and SEC conferences not included in the CFP are placed into the Peach, Cotton, or Fiesta Bowls.
Step 4:  The highest ranked team remaining out of the SEC, Big Ten, or Notre Dame is selected for the Orange Bowl.  (Big Ten and SEC champs are not eligible for this slot.)
Step 5:  The highest ranked Group of 5 champion is placed in the Peach Bowl.
Step 6:  Start at the top of the rankings and work down, placing any team that has not already been selected for a bowl into the Peach, Cotton, and Fiesta Bowls until there are no spots left.

Year 2
Step 1:  Teams #1-4 are placed in the Orange and Cotton Bowls.
Step 2:  The champions of the Big Ten and Pac-12 are placed in the Rose Bowl, unless they are in the semi-finals, in which case the Rose Bowl gets the next highest ranked team from that respective conference.
Step 3:  The champions of the SEC and Big 12 are placed in the Sugar Bowl, unless they are in the semi-finals, in which case the Sugar Bowl gets the next highest ranked team from that respective conference.
Step 4:  If the ACC champion is not in the semi-finals, they are placed into the Peach or Fiesta Bowl.
Step 5:  The highest ranked Group of 5 champion is placed in the Fiesta Bowl.
Step 6:  Start at the top of the rankings and work down, placing any team that has not already been selected for a bowl into a New Year's Six bowl until there are no spots left.

Year 3
Step 1:  Teams #1-4 are placed in the Fiesta and Peach Bowls.
Step 2:  The champions of the Big Ten and Pac-12 are placed in the Rose Bowl, unless they are in the semi-finals, in which case the Rose Bowl gets the next highest ranked team from that respective conference.
Step 3:  The champions of the SEC and Big 12 are placed in the Sugar Bowl, unless they are in the semi-finals, in which case the Sugar Bowl gets the next highest ranked team from that respective conference.
Step 4:  The ACC champion is placed into the Orange Bowl, unless they are in the semi-finals, in which case the Orange Bowl gets the next highest ranked ACC team.
Step 5:  The highest ranked team remaining out of the SEC, Big Ten, or Notre Dame is selected for the Orange Bowl.  (Big Ten and SEC champs are not eligible for this slot.)
Step 6:  The highest ranked Group of 5 champion is placed in the Cotton Bowl.
Step 7:  The highest ranked team not already included in a New Year's Six bowl is placed in the Cotton Bowl.  (Due to the semi-finals being in the "at-large" bowls, there is only one true at-large spot available.)

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