New Year's Six projections: Week 12

This is one of the more difficult weeks to do NY6 projections.  As you know, at this blog, we don't automatically place the current top four teams in the CFP if we know that they have to face off at some point during the season.

2022 Week 12 Wrap-Up

The best part about only having one week left of the regular season is that it really makes for clean "what if" scenarios.

What if the Pac-12 had divisions? Week 12 wrap up

Over in the real world, one participant of the Pac-12 championship game has already been clinched, with two or three teams still vying for the other spot.  How does it look in the original version of 2022 with divisions?

New Year's Six projections: Week 11

Peach and Fiesta Bowls are the semi-finals this year, limiting the at-large positions.

Projected semi-finals:
#1 Georgia vs. #5 Tennessee
winner of #2 Ohio State/#3 Michigan vs. #4 TCU

There's no sense projecting any semi-final that will pit OSU against Michigan again.

Rose Bowl:  loser of #2 Ohio State/#3 Michigan vs. #7 USC
Since the winner of OSU/Michigan is projected to eventually win the conference, the Rose Bowl will be looking at the highest ranked Big Ten team remaining.  While the Pac-12 still has quite a bit of settling to do in the next week, USC is the highest ranked team at this point.

Sugar Bowl: #6 LSU vs. #19 Kansas State
Both of the normal participants (SEC and Big 12 champs) are projected to be in the CFP, so we just go with the next highest ranked team from each conference.  (Or third in the SEC's case, as Tennessee is projected into a semi-final.)

Orange Bowl:  winner of #9 Clemson/#13 UNC vs. #8 Alabama
Hedging the bets here, as the ACCCG is a matchup of the two highest ranked teams in the conference, and the winner will go here, barring any craziness in the last two weeks that could catapult the winner into the CFP.  On the other side of the matchup, we go with the highest ranked team out of the Big Ten, SEC, and Notre Dame that isn't already committed to the CFP, Rose Bowl, or Sugar Bowl.

Cotton Bowl:  #17 UCF vs. #10 Utah
I haven't looked at the G5 races close enough to see if UCF can actually win their conference, but they are currently the highest ranked G5 team.  Meanwhile, Utah is the highest ranked team not already committed to a bowl.

I don't expect any of these matchups to actually happen, though.

What if the Pac-12 had divisions? Week 11 wrap up.

Continuing our look at the alternate reality where the Pac-12 has divisions and seeing if that race is any clearer than what we've got going on in the real world.

2022 Week 11 Wrap-up

Two entire championship games are set, and we have a winner-take-all division matchup set.  But somehow, one division has managed to completely tie itself into a knot?

What if the Pac-12 had divisions? Week 10 wrap up

Continuing our look at the alternate reality where the Pac-12 has divisions and seeing if that race is any clearer than what we've got going on in the real world.

2022 Week 10 Wrap Up

We have our first championship game participant clenched!  And wait...did Alabama just get knocked out of the playoff?

10th-Week Look-In, 2022 Season

 I last did one of these after Week 5; this next one is BEFORE the bulk of Week 10 (technically "during", as the midweek MACtion has already been played).

We now have CFP Rankings to look at, which officially gets us into the race to the finish!

What if the Pac-12 still had divisions? 2022 Week 9 Wrap Up

Since the Pac-12 scrapped their divisions this year but kept the schedule, we can track how the season would have gone with divisions and see if we ultimately end up with a different Pac-12 championship.