Week 14 wrap up

I really thought I had posted a wrap up for week 13.  Anyway, all of the conference title games are set, and the conferences without title games are setting up for big showdowns next week.

ACC
Atlantic winner - Florida State
Coastal winner - Duke

The Wheel of Destiny has stopped spinning.  Now, let's wrap our heads around the thought that Duke will be in a primetime game on ABC next weekend.

SEC
West winner - Auburn
East winner - Missouri

The Tigers will win the SEC.  And major kudos to Auburn for the thrilling way they beat Alabama.

B1G
Leaders winner - Ohio State
Legends winner - Michigan State

Pac-12
North winner - Stanford
South winner - Arizona State

Big 12
This conference likes to upset itself the week before Thanksgiving.  I need to remember that next year.  In fact, last week, they almost set up scenarios of ACC proportions.

Last week, there were 16 possible outcomes based on four games that controlled the conference.  Oklahoma State won 12 of those; Baylor and Texas each got two.  Now there's only three outcomes.  Either Oklahoma State wins against Oklahoma, or they lose and the Baylor/Texas winner takes the conference.

All three teams in contention are 7-1 in conference.

Oklahoma (6-2) is out.  Last week, it looked like they had the record to force a 3 or 4 way tie, but they didn't own enough tiebreakers.  Now, they're out based solely on record.  We already know that the Baylor/Texas winner will end up at 8-1, which means anyone with more than one conference loss is eliminated.

American
Still don't care that much, I think UCF is most likely to win.  They either need to win their final game, or have Louisville beat Cincinnati.  Not sure what would happen if those games go the other way.

Just for fun, let's see what the average ranking of each conference championship is.

SEC:  4
(3) Auburn vs. (5) Missouri

B1G:  6
(2) Ohio State vs. (10) Michigan State

Pac-12:  9
(7) Stanford vs. (11) Arizona State

ACC:  10.5
(1) Florida State vs. (20) Duke

At least all of them have two ranked teams.

ACC Wheel of Destiny: Final Spin 2013

It all comes down to today, and we're down to three scenarios.

Since Miami beat Pitt yesterday, Georgia Tech is out.

If Duke wins, they're in.  If they lose, then all eyes turn to the VT/UVA game.

If VT wins, they're in.  Otherwise, Miami goes.

Duke @ UNC on ESPN2 at noon, VT @ UVA on ESPNU at 3:30.  Let the drama commence.

BCS Predictions: Thanksgiving edition

I might have gotten a few things wrong last week.  Here are the updated predictions.

National title:  Alabama (SEC champ, #1) vs. Florida State (ACC champ, #2)
We could still get an upset with these two, but that would open an even bigger debate of who should take over.

Rose Bowl:  Ohio State (B1G champ) vs. Arizona State (Pac-12 champ)
I kind of like Michigan State better in the B1G, but I can't quite bring myself to pull the trigger on them yet.  Meanwhile, Arizona State is in a grudge match against Stanford, and most likely it will be on their turf.  They want it more.

Orange Bowl:  Clemson (ACC, at-large) vs. Michigan State (B1G, at-large)
If Michigan State upsets Ohio State in the B1G title game, then they could swap bowl spots.  Also, if the Orange Bowl just goes down the rankings and picks the highest ranked eligible team, that spot could go to Baylor.  Baylor doesn't have to worry about a conference championship game, so they could remain ranked higher if MSU loses the B1G title game.

Sugar Bowl:  Missouri (SEC, at-large) vs. UCF (American champ)
In this scenario, Missouri wins the SEC East but loses to Alabama in the title game.  While I think Louisville is the most attractive team in the American conference, I no longer feel confident that they will catch the necessary breaks to win the conference.  UCF also has a closer fanbase more likely to travel.

Fiesta Bowl:  Oklahoma State (Big 12 champ) vs. Northern Illinois (non-AQ)
NIU has jumped Fresno as the highest ranked non-AQ, but I don't think they will be attractive to anyone, and will therefore fall to whoever picks last.  I also don't see Oklahoma State losing to Oklahoma, so all of the other Big 12 scenarios don't really matter.

Under the Radar Games: Week 14

Obviously, this weekend's meant for rivalries and the high-impact matchups.  Nevertheless, here are five games that might be worth checking in on, even if conference championshps and BCS bids aren't necessarily on the line (or, at least, directly on the line).

1. Texas Tech at Texas.  The Longhorns have made Thanksgiving evening theirs, and this time around, it's the Red Raiders that come to town for the Turkey Day clash.  Even though Oklahoma State can clinch the Big 12's BCS spot with a win over the Sooners next Saturday, Texas or Baylor can still pull off a conference co-championship by winning out.  Baylor hosts Texas in the finale at Floyd Casey Stadium next Saturday, which could be a matchup for a split championship with the Cowboys (or an outright Big 12 title and Fiesta Bowl bid should the Sooners win the Bedlam game).

2. Iowa at Nebraska.  Hawkeye fans were feeling frustration at the beginning of the year, while the Cornhusker faithful were feeling hopeful of a division or conference crown.  Well, the Big Ten Legends isn't on the line here, but these two programs seem to be trending in opposite directions.  Can Iowa knock off Nebraska, accomplish a 4-game improvement from a year ago, and send Nebraska into bowl seasons with questions to consider?  This could also give a little BCS computer boost to Northern Illinois, who beat Iowa back in Week 1, who continues to need the computer love to offset Fresno's human poll edge over the Huskies.

3. South Florida at Central Florida.  Yes, the Bulls are terrible this season and should be a complete mismatch with the BCS-seeking UCF Knights.  However, the ESPN Black Friday night game has brought us some surprises over the years - none more memorable than the 2010 stunner of Nevada over Boise State.  Now, that Nevada team (who had Colin Kaepernick and finished 13-1) was a lot better than this USF team.  But with the institutional rivalry between these two schools (Orlando vs Tampa, large student bodies, former Big East vs Conference USA), I'll be interested to see just how this winds up.  This is the kind of loss that could turn into 2 for UCF and allow Louisville or Cincy right back into the BCS race!

4. Penn State at Wisconsin.  Last year, a winning record for the Nittany Lions was initially unfathomable (particularly after losing to a mediocre Ohio and awful UVA to start off 2012).  But, they pulled off a spectacular 8-4 with an impressive win against Wisconsin in the finale.  This time around, the game is in Madison, and the Badgers have their sights set on their 4th straight BCS Bowl (though Ohio State and Michigan State may have something to say about that).  In order to have any shot, it's a must-win for Wisconsin.  For Bill O'Brien and Penn State, it's their season finale once again, and they'd love nothing more than to close out at 7-5 and secure a winning record once again.

5. Boston College at Syracuse.  A win against Syracuse would complete a fantastic BC turnaround from 2-10 to 8-4...props to Steve Addazio!  Also, some folks are tabbing BC's Andre Williams as a serious Heisman candidate; a quality performance could wrap up Andre's invitation to New York.  A win for the Orange, however, would secure them bowl eligibility once again, and it would let the ACC be the first conference to have 11 bowl-eligible teams!

Chaos Theory #2

What if Auburn beats Alabama?

First thought is that we would get FSU vs. Ohio State in the title game.  Alabama at 11-1 would probably get picked by the Orange Bowl as an at-large, because who wouldn't jump at the chance to pick Alabama for their bowl game?  (Hmm...if we combine this with Chaos Theory #1, though...looks like Chaos Theory #3.)

The SEC title game would be 11-1 Auburn vs. 11-1 Missouri, or 10-2/9-3 South Carolina.

Now, what if FSU or Ohio State loses as well?  That would open up a spot in the national championship game.  Auburn and Missouri are currently #4 and #5.  If Auburn beats Alabama, I'm sure they would move to #3, and Missouri would be either #4 or #5, depending on how the BCS feels about Alabama.  That would almost certainly guarantee the SEC winner to be #3, waiting in the wings for FSU or Ohio State to lose.  (Unless South Carolina wins the East, and somehow wins the conference, but I don't see them pulling both of those off.)

Games to Watch: Week 14

It's Thanksgiving, and rivalry week, and all of the conference races are coming to a head.  Do you really need reasons to watch games?

On Thursday, if you're not into NFL action, ESPN has Ole Miss at Mississippi State, while Fox Sports 1 has Texas Tech at Texas.

Friday
2:30 PM
Arkansas at LSU, CBS.  Always a fun one, and this is like a 3:30 Saturday game on CBS.

3:30 PM
Miami at Pitt, ABC.  ACC Coastal Wheel of Destiny, part 1.  As we enter this weekend, there are four teams with a chance of winning the ACC Coastal, and three games key to the division title.  At least one team will be eliminated after each game.  If Miami loses this one, then Georgia Tech stays alive.

Saturday
Noon
Duke at North Carolina, ESPN2.  ACC Coastal Wheel of Destiny, part 2.  I wonder if ESPN is betting on Duke losing this game.  If Duke wins, they win the Coastal.  If they lose, we have to keep watching for Virginia Tech to make the final determination.

Florida State at Florida, ESPN.  Probably a much more lopsided matchup than anyone could have predicted.

Ohio State at Michigan, ABC.  This is one of the biggest rivalry week games every year.

3:30 PM
Alabama at Auburn, CBS.  Winner goes to the SEC Championship.

Virginia Tech at Virginia, ESPNU.  ACC Coastal Wheel of Destiny, part 3.  If Duke loses, then this game will determine the ACC Coastal winner.  A VT win would put them in the title game, but a loss would put either Miami or GT, based on Friday's outcome.  If Duke wins, then we're only looking at this as another Commonwealth Cup matchup.

7 PM
Clemson at South Carolina, ESPN2.  Both are making cases for the BCS.

7:45 PM
Texas A&M at Missouri, ESPN.  Two years ago, a Big 12 matchup.  Now, an SEC tilt that will determine the SEC East champion.  If Missouri wins, they go.  If they lose, they send South Carolina.

Chaos Theory #1

Now that we're down to the last two weeks, it's fun to think of ways for the entire national championship and BCS picture to get completely upended.

Since it's highly unlikely that Florida State will face any competition from Florida, their big chance of getting upset is in the ACC title game.

There are still four teams from the Coastal division with a shot at getting to that game, with potential final records ranging from 8-4 to 10-2.  Only one of those teams is ranked at the moment.

What if Florida State loses the ACC title game?

Assuming that there's no other major upsets, then they definitely lose out on the national title, which would most likely be Alabama vs. Ohio State.

But Florida State could very well miss out on the BCS completely.  Since the Orange Bowl would then take the ACC Champion (either Duke, VT, Miami, or GT in this scenario), they wouldn't pick a second ACC team as the at-large, especially if it would just be a rematch of the ACC title game.

Since the Orange Bowl has first pick of the at-large teams, the Sugar and Fiesta Bowls are stuck with the American and non-AQ teams.  With the Orange Bowl's recent history, they have no incentive to pick either one of those teams.  Although, if the ACC winner is VT, and somehow Louisville wins the American, then maybe the Orange Bowl would bite the bullet and pair those teams together.  It's the best matchup that can be created out of the available teams.  In that case, FSU would be available for the Sugar or Fiesta Bowls.

Perhaps FSU could back into the Rose Bowl if they only fall to #3 or #4?  The 3/4 Rule would take effect, and FSU would have to go to a BCS game.

But even in those two scenarios, a lot has to happen for FSU to get consideration in the BCS.  So, could a 12-1 FSU seriously  miss out on the BCS?

BCS Thoughts: Two Weeks to Go

Rivalry week is upon us, and several games this weekend will have such a direct impact on this year's BCS picture.  Plus, the rivalries in and of themselves just make college football such a fantastic sport!

National Championship Game
Another week, another undefeated gone.  I really thought Baylor had something special, but Oklahoma State showed it was truly the better team in Stillwater.  Now, we're left with Alabama, Florida State, and Ohio State - pretty firmly in that order should they all win out. 

If one of the three stumble, then the other two play for the national title.  If two stumble, things get interesting.  I'm highly interested in the SEC this week, with both the Iron Bowl and the Mizzou-A&M games going a long way to set the one-loss stage. 

I'll get into a serious discussion next week about one-loss teams - and we'll see if Clemson, Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Michigan State can find a way to become a dark horse in the discussion.


Non-AQ Berth
The computers just love Northern Illinois...the Huskies average 7th.  It's good enough to allow them to rank higher than Fresno State, even though the Bulldogs are several spots ahead in the Coaches and Harris polls.

Last week, I was convinced that Fresno was simply too far ahead.  Now, I think it'll really come down to the wire.  And will the computers continue to anchor down the American teams, and allow #16 to be the cutoff (or, will NIU or Fresno hit #12 and make the American a moot point)?


At-Large Berths
I think it's safe to say that the SEC will get one of the At-Large spots in one of two ways: (1) Alabama goes to the Title Game and is replaced in the Sugar by Missouri or Auburn; (2) Alabama loses to Auburn or SC/Missouri and becomes the At-Large.  If Missouri wins against A&M but loses to Alabama, I'll be interested in seeing whether 11-2 Missouri or 10-2 Auburn gets the Sugar Bowl nod.

In the ACC, it all comes down to the Battle for the Palmetto State.  If Clemson can take back its edge and beat the Top 10 Gamecocks, the Tigers could finish as high as #4 - netting an Automatic "3/4 Rule" berth (though the Orange Bowl would surely take a 5 or 6 Clemson team to replace NCG Participant Florida State).  If Clemson happens to lose, particularly if the loss is respectable, there's still a chance the Orange Bowl takes a 10-2 Clemson due to the lack of other "fantastic" options.

Things are looking good for the Big Ten, which should have a whale of a Championship Game.  I personally think Michigan State is good enough to beat Ohio State and finally get back to the Rose Bowl.  If that happens, the Buckeyes should be a shoo-in for the Orange Bowl spot.  Otherwise, it'll be a nail-biter waiting to see whether MSU or Wisconsin gets it.  Like I said last week, I think it'll come down to how the Spartans lose to the Buckeyes.  If they "look" better than the Badgers, I say let the boys in green into the BCS.  If not, give it to the men from Madison.  Of course, all three of these teams had better get past this last regular-season week.

The PAC-12 and Big 12 have played themselves out of an At-Large, in my opinion.  Either Stanford or Arizona State will go to the Rose Bowl, the loser will have one loss too many, and Oregon has shown it doesn't care if it's not a championship.  Oklahoma State controls its Auto-BCS destiny, but a loss to the Sooners would be one too many.  Baylor, even with just the one loss doesn't have the "name" to get chosen as an at-large.  I suppose one of these teams could get a chance if Clemson loses big, and allvthree leading Big Ten teams all stumble during rivalry week.

Next week will answer a lot of questions, and should set up one final round of what "could" happen before the final reveal in 2 weeks of what "will" happen.

ACC Wheel of Destiny: Week 13 wrap up

After just two games being played this week, we have gone from 17 scenarios down to five.  Meanwhile, all eyes are on three games next week that are key for determining the Coastal champion:  Duke @ UNC, Miami @ Pitt, and VT @ UVA.

Duke is also the only team that can outright win the division.  Everyone else will rely on tiebreakers.

Duke, GT, and UNC are required to be in every tie scenario.  GT has already finished their conference season.  If UNC beats Duke, then both teams would sit at three losses.  However, UNC does not have enough tiebreakers to win the division.

Scenario #1:  Duke finishes 6-2
Setup:  Duke wins
Outcome:  Duke wins Coastal, best record.

Three way ties at 5-3:

Scenario #2:  Duke/GT/UNC
Setup:  Duke, VT, and Miami lose
Outcome:  GT wins, head-to-head.

Four way ties at 5-3:

Scenario #3:  GT/Duke/Miami/UNC
Setup:  Miami wins, VT and Duke lose.
Outcome:  Miami wins Coastal.  Among the four teams, Miami and GT would be 2-1, while Duke and UNC would be 1-2.  Miami then beats GT on direct head-to-head.

Scenario #4:  GT/Duke/VT/UNC
Setup:  Miami and Duke lose, VT wins
Outcome:  VT wins Coastal.  Among the four, VT and GT would be 2-1, Duke and UNC 1-2, VT beats GT on direct head-to-head.

Five way tie at 5-3:

Scenario #5:  GT/Duke/VT/Miami/UNC
Setup:  VT and Miami win, Duke loses.
Outcome:  VT wins Coastal.  Among the five teams, VT would be 3-1.  Duke, GT, and Miami would be 2-2, and UNC would be 1-3.

I was going to make a chart, but with only five scenarios it is really easy.  Here is what each team needs.

Duke:  win.
Virginia Tech:  win + Duke loss.
Miami:  win + Duke loss + VT loss.
GT:  Duke loss + VT loss + Miami loss.

Bowl eligible:  Virginia Tech, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Boston College, UNC, Pitt
Last game determines bowl status: Syracuse
Not bowl eligible:  UVA, NC State, Wake Forest

BCS Predictions pre-Thanksgiving

Here are my slightly too early BCS bowl predictions.

National title:  Alabama (SEC champ) vs. Florida State (ACC champ)
As much I would love to see an upset in the SEC, and see one of the other hopefuls creep up into the top two, I can't logically pick against Alabama until that happens.  Also, can we come up with a bowl name for this game already?

Rose Bowl:  Ohio State (B1G champ) vs. Oregon (Pac-12 champ)
There are still chances for upsets in the conference title games, though, as the leaders of all four divisions look really good.

Orange Bowl:  Clemson (ACC, at-large) vs. Michigan State (B1G, at-large)
I think the Orange Bowl will stick with an ACC team to replace Florida State.  The only two options are an 11-1 Clemson or a 10-3 Duke, and Clemson gets the edge.  Clemson is also an attractive option despite their conference affiliation.  For the at-large opponent, since the Orange Bowl gets the first pick, I think they might just look down the BCS standings and find the highest ranked team that is qualified.  Currently, Stanford is above MSU, but I could see Michigan State jumping them as they keep winning.  Also, geography could play a role.

Sugar Bowl:  Missouri (SEC, at-large) vs. Louisville (American champ)
I'm assuming that Missouri will win out and play in the SEC championship game.  If not, Auburn would be an attractive option as well.  I'm taking a chance that Louisville can win the conference, but they are clearly the most attractive team in the American.  The other big question is if UCF would be more attractive than the non-AQ.

Fiesta Bowl:  Baylor (Big 12 champ) vs. Fresno State (non-AQ)
I'm going with Fresno as the non-AQ at this point since they are currently ranked higher.  I really think that these bowls play a game of hot potato with the American champ and the non-AQ.  It could work out in the Fiesta Bowl's favor, though, as they could have another matchup of undefeated teams not playing in the national title.