2024 Week 6 wrap up

I've gotten a little behind on the wrap-ups, due to actual life events, not game outcomes.  Although, it does look like we have some ACC controversy brewing in the middle of what might turn out to be a crazy season already.  Either we're getting a lot more parity in the sport, or no one really knows what they're talking about.

Who is eligible for Pac-12 expansion?

The Pac-12, currently sitting at 2 members, announced this week that they will be adding four teams from the Mountain West.  They still need to find at least two more members to be eligible to be a conference, so there is more expansion coming.

Oregon State and Washington State will welcome Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, and Colorado State.

It appears that a requirement of the new Pac-12 is that members must be a "State" school.  So, who is eligible to be part of the new Pac-12?

2024 Week 3 wrap-up

The college landscape is changing, and we're already seeing the effects in a very interesting start to the season.  

We're down to just four Power conferences at the moment, until we figure out what happens to the Pac-12 as they reload.  All of the rest of the conferences have officially abandoned divisions, so the conference races are turning into free-for-alls.  Honestly, it's taking a lot of fun out of this blog because the paths to conference championship games are less clear.

2023 Season Lookback

Where did the time go?!?  Postseason already!  In the last year of the 4-team playoff setup, let's go back and see just how right - or how wrong - those predictions were!

2023 Hypothetical 12-team playoff

Here's what the CFP would look like if we had the 12 team system this year.  Although I'm sure there would be much debate over giving Alabama or FSU the first round bye.

2023 - Semifinals:  Rose and Sugar

Top 4	Quarterfinal	First Round
#1 Michigan	Peach	#9 Missouri @ #8 Oregon
#2 Washington	Fiesta	#10 Penn State @ #7 Ohio State
#3 Texas	Cotton	#11 Ole Miss @ #6 Georgia
#4 Alabama	Orange	#12 Liberty @ #5 FSU

Once again, we would see an OSU/PSU rematch, as well as an Ole Miss/Georgia rematch.

Click here for the full recap of 12 team playoff scenarios for the entire BCS/CFP era.

2023 Final Predictions

The games just wrapped up and the committee has 12 hours to figure out where everyone is playing around New Year's.

I hate the argument about "best teams" when it comes to choosing champions.  Those terms do not mean the same.  It's largely impossible to truly determine the best team.

I also don't like the line that the committee gives about each week being a fresh slate, as that seems to run counter to the idea that they are judging an entire season's worth of work.

That being said, here are my final predictions for what we will see in the New Year's Six.

Semifinals:
Rose Bowl - 1 Michigan vs. 4 Texas
Sugar Bowl - 2 Washington vs. 3 Florida State

Orange Bowl - Louisville vs. Georgia
Cotton Bowl - Alabama vs. Oregon
Peach Bowl - Ohio State vs. Missouri
Fiesta Bowl - Liberty vs. Penn State

Other than the Orange Bowl, I have more confidence in the NY6 teams than actual matchups.

Speaking of the Orange Bowl, I don't think an idle 9-3 NC State will jump a 10-3 Louisville just because the latter lost their 13th game.  Some folks are probably thinking that Alabama should be going to the Orange Bowl, due to the highest ranking Big Ten/SEC team not in the semifinals.  Except that the contract specifically states "non-champion".

2023 Chaos Theory

There is a chance that 2023 could end up being the perfect year for a 4 team playoff.  There are currently four undefeated teams - Georgia, Michigan, Washington, and Florida State.  In addition, there are four teams with a single loss - Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, and Alabama.  

It stands to reason that if any of the undefeated teams wins their conference championship game, they are in the CFP.  Past history of the CFP tells us that any of the current 1-loss teams will be eliminated with a loss.  The only way for a 2-loss team to make the CFP is if there are no more than 3 teams at 1 or 0 losses, which is mathematically impossible at this time.

Here are the best possible scenarios I see for any of these top 8 teams to make the final four.

New Year's Six projections - Week 14

I guess this is the last time to do this.   The next set of rankings will come with the full bowl matchups.

Sugar Bowl:  1 Georgia vs. 4 Florida State
Rose Bowl:  2 Michigan vs. 3 Washington

Orange Bowl:  14 Louisville (projected ACC replacement) vs. 6 Ohio State

At-large participants:
5 Oregon
7 Texas
8 Alabama
9 Missouri
10 Penn State
22 Tulane (G5)

Peach Bowl:  8 Alabama vs. 10 Penn State
Cotton Bowl:  7 Texas vs. 9 Missouri
Fiesta Bowl:  6 Oregon vs. 22 Tulane

Really, no difference from last week other than not having to hedge bets on OSU/Michigan, and then rankings being adjusted accordingly based on that (and Louisville's loss).

Maximum chaos theory:  Georgia, Washington, Florida State, and Michigan lose while Texas wins.  That leaves no undefeated teams and 7 teams with a 12-1 record.

2023 Week 13 full wrap up

All of the Power 5 championship games are set.

ACC Championship:  Florida State Seminoles (8-0) vs. Louisville Cardinals (7-1)
Both teams clinched by virtue of having the two best records in conference.  No tiebreakers needed.

(UNC is the only ACC team to not play either championship participant.)

SEC Championship:  Georgia Bulldogs (8-0) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0)
Both teams clinched based on the best record in their divisions.  Every other SEC team has at least two conference losses.

Big Ten Championship:  Michigan Wolverines (9-0) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-2)
Both teams had the best records in their respective division, no tiebreakers required.

Drive for 325:  In order to hit 325 points in 13 games, Iowa will need to score 109 points in the conference championship.  Or, they could average 67 points in the championship game and the bowl game to get to 350 in 14 games.

After 12 games:
Total points / Benchmark: 216 / 300
Points per game:  18

Big 12 Championship:  Texas Longhorns (8-1) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-2)
While Texas had the best record in the conference, Oklahoma State clinched the #2 spot by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker over Oklahoma.  Every other team has at least 3 conference losses.

(Every Big 12 team played at least one of these two championship game teams.)

Pac-12 Championship:  Washington Huskies (9-0) vs. Oregon Ducks (8-1)
These teams had the best records in the conference.  No tiebreakers were needed as everyone else in the conference had at least two losses.  This championship game will be a rematch of the October game that Washington won by 3 points.

(UCLA is the only Pac-12 team to not play either championship participant.)

If the Pac-12 still had the North and South divisions, the championship game would have been Washington vs. Arizona.

2023 Week 13 Black Friday update

Black Friday brought some deals to a few teams heading to conference championships.