As we enter November, the landscape of this season is taking shape. But we're also at the point of the season where there are a number of teams that are likely eliminated, but the math required to figure out every possible situation is just too much work. (Especially when said team will probably lose another game and make it moot soon enough.)
Apparently I had a lot of wrong numbers in the week 9 post. Not sure how that happened, but this week should have everything fixed.
ACC Wheel of Destiny: Week 10
Atlantic
Magic number: 4
Controls destiny:
-Florida State (5-0) has tiebreakers over Clemson, NC State, Wake Forest, Syracuse, and Louisville. They can clinch with two wins, or one win and a Clemson loss.
Needs help:
-Clemson (5-1) needs two FSU losses. They have tiebreakers over Louisville, BC, NC State, and Syracuse.
-Boston College (3-2) needs two Clemson losses and an extra FSU loss. They have tiebreakers over NC State and Wake Forest.
Out of contention:
-Louisville (4-3) - even if the Cardinals win their final conference game, and end at 5-3, they can't outright lead the division, since FSU and Clemson are both already sitting at 5 wins. They would have no chance at a tiebreaker due to head-to-head.
-Syracuse (1-4), NC State (1-4), and Wake Forest (0-4) have all hit the magic number.
There is a slight possibility of a four way tie at 5-3 with FSU, Clemson, Louisville, and BC. In that scenario, Louisville would beat BC, but BC would beat FSU. FSU and Clemson would be 2-1 in the group, with Louisville and BC at 1-2. FSU would win based on head-to-head against Clemson.
Coastal
Magic number: 5
Controls destiny:
-Duke (3-1) has tiebreakers over GT, UVA, and Pitt. They lost to Miami.
Needs help:
-Georgia Tech (4-2) needs 2 Duke losses. They have tiebreakers over VT, Miami, Pitt, and UVA. They are done with divisional play as their remaining two conference games are with Atlantic teams.
-Miami (3-2) needs a GT loss and a Duke loss. They have tiebreakers over Duke, VT, and UNC.
-UNC (2-3) needs 2 Miami losses and a GT loss. They have tiebreakers over GT and UVA, but also lost to VT.
-UVA (2-3) needs 3 Duke losses, 2 GT losses, and a UNC loss. They have a tiebreaker over Pitt.
-Pitt (2-3) needs 3 Duke losses, 2 GT losses, and a UVA loss. They have a tiebreaker over VT.
Likely out:
-Virginia Tech (1-4) might already be out, but there are too many variables to figure out to see how tiebreakers would shake out.
And the link we'll be needing quite a bit in a few weeks: ACC Tiebreakers
Bowl eligible: Florida State, Duke, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Boston College, Miami
One win away: NC State
Two wins away: Virginia Tech, UVA, Pitt, UNC
One loss away from no bowl: Wake Forest, Syracuse
SEC Roller Coaster: Week 10
East
Magic number: 5
Controls destiny:
-Missouri (4-1) has tiebreakers over South Carolina, Florida, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky. They lost to Georgia.
Needs help:
-Georgia (4-2) needs a Missouri loss. They have tiebreakers over Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Missouri. They lost to South Carolina and Florida.
-Florida (3-3) needs Missouri to lose out and a Georgia loss. They have tiebreakers over Kentucky, Tennessee, and Georgia. They lost to Missouri.
Facing elimination:
-Kentucky (2-4) has tiebreakers over Vanderbilt and South Carolina. They lost to Florida and Missouri.
-Tennessee (1-4) has a tiebreaker over South Carolina, but lost to Georgia and Florida.
A loss or a win by Missouri or Georgia would eliminate either team.
Out of contention:
-Vanderbilt (0-5) and South Carolina (2-5) have hit the magic number.
West
Magic number: 4
Controls destiny:
-Mississippi State (5-0) owns tiebreakers against LSU, Texas A&M, Auburn, and Arkansas.
-Alabama (4-1) has a tiebreaker over Arkansas and Texas A&M. They lost to Ole Miss.
Needs help:
-Auburn (4-1) needs 2 Mississippi State losses, but has tiebreakers over Arkansas, LSU, and Ole Miss.
-Ole Miss (4-2) owns a tiebreaker over Alabama and Texas A&M. They lost to LSU and Auburn.
-LSU (3-2) needs 3 Mississippi State losses and two Auburn losses.
Facing elimination:
-Texas A&M (2-3) has a tiebreaker over Arkansas, but lost to Mississippi St, Ole Miss, and Alabama. They might already be eliminated, but there's still too many variables to calculate easily. Needless to say, one loss or a Mississippi State win will eliminate them.
Out of contention:
-Arkansas (0-5) hit the magic number.
Bowl eligible: Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Missouri, Texas A&M
One win away: Kentucky
Two wins away: Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee
One loss away from not bowling: Vanderbilt, Arkansas
B1G: Week 10
East
Magic number: 4
Based on records, the magic number should be 5, but we know that the Ohio State/Michigan State winner will have at least 5 wins.
Controls destiny:
-Ohio State (4-0) has tiebreakers over Maryland, Rutgers, and Penn State.
-Michigan State (4-0) has tiebreakers over Indiana and Michigan.
Needs help:
-Maryland (3-2) needs 3 Ohio State losses and extra losses from Michigan State, but has a tiebreaker over Indiana and Penn State.
Just start winning:
-Michigan (2-3) has tiebreakers against Penn State and Indiana. They lost to Rutgers and Michigan State.
Out of contention:
-Penn State (1-4), Rutgers (1-4), and Indiana (0-4) have hit the magic number.
West
Magic number: 5
Controls destiny:
-Nebraska (4-1) has tiebreakers over Illinois, Northwestern, and Purdue.
-Minnesota (3-1) has tiebreakers over Northwestern and Purdue. They lost to Illinois.
-Iowa (3-1) has tiebreakers over Purdue and Northwestern.
-Wisconsin (3-1) has a tiebreaker over Illinois, but lost to Northwestern.
Needs help:
-Northwestern (2-3) needs 2 Minnesota losses, 2 Nebraska losses, 2 Iowa losses, and 2 Wisconsin losses.
Facing elimination:
-Purdue (1-4) lost to Minnesota Iowa, and Nebraska, but beat Illinois.
-Illinois (1-4) lost to Nebraska, Purdue, and Wisconsin.
A loss or Nebraska win will eliminate either team.
Bowl eligible: Michigan State, Nebraska, Minnesota, Ohio State, Maryland, Iowa, Wisconsin
One win away: Rutgers
Two wins away: Penn State, Illinois
One loss from no bowl: Purdue
Pac-12: Week 10
North
Magic number: 5
Controls destiny:
-Oregon (5-1) has tiebreakers over Washington State, Washington, Cal, and Stanford.
Needs help:
-Stanford (3-3) needs 3 Oregon losses. They have tiebreakers over Washington, Washington State, and Oregon State.
-Washington (2-3) needs 3 Oregon losses and a Stanford loss. They have a tiebreaker over Cal.
Facing elimination:
-Oregon State (1-4) needs 2 Stanford losses.
-California (3-4) lost to Washington and Oregon. They have a tiebreaker over Washington State and Oregon State.
A loss or Oregon win would eliminate either team.
Out of contention:
-Washington State (1-5) hit the magic number.
South
Magic number: 5
Controls destiny:
-Arizona State (5-1) has tiebreakers over Colorado, USC, and Utah. They lost to UCLA.
Needs help:
-Utah (3-2) needs 2 Arizona State losses. They have tiebreakers over UCLA and USC.
-UCLA (4-2) needs a Utah loss. They have tiebreakers over Arizona State and Arizona.
-USC (5-2) needs 2 Arizona State losses and a Utah loss. They have tiebreakers over Colorado and Arizona.
-Arizona (3-2) needs a loss from USC and UCLA.
Out of contention:
-Colorado (0-6) hit the magic number.
Bowl eligible: Oregon, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, UCLA, USC
One win away: Washington*, Stanford, California
Two wins away: Oregon State
No bowl: Washington State, Colorado
*Washington has 6 wins, but played 2 FCS teams, only one of which can count towards bowl eligibility.
Big 12 Roulette: Week 10
Magic number: 5
Controls destiny:
-Kansas State (5-0) has tiebreakers over Iowa State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas, and Oklahoma State.
-Baylor (4-1) has tiebreakers over Iowa State, Texas, TCU, and Kansas. They lost to West Virginia.
Needs help:
-TCU (4-1) needs a Baylor loss. They have tiebreakers over Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and West Virginia.
-Oklahoma State (3-1) needs 2 K-State losses. They have tiebreakers over Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Kansas.
-Oklahoma (3-2) needs 2 TCU losses and an extra K-State loss. They have tiebreakers over West Virginia, Texas, and Iowa State.
-West Virginia (3-2) needs 2 TCU losses and an Oklahoma loss. They have tiebreakers over Kansas, Texas Tech, and Baylor.
-Texas (3-3) has a tiebreakers over Kansas, Iowa State, and Texas Tech, but lost to Baylor, Oklahoma, and Kansas State.
Out of contention:
-Texas Tech (1-5), Kansas (0-5), and Iowa State (0-5) have clinched losing conference records.
Bowl eligible: Kansas State, TCU, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma
One win away: Oklahoma State
Two wins away: Texas
One loss away from no bowl: Texas Tech, Kansas, Iowa State
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