Thursday, October 29, 2015

Updating the season predictions

We're at the end of the second month of the college football season, and I'm doing my first look back/look ahead, see what I got wrong post.

It's always difficult to do this at the end of September, with so many non-conference games.  Even waiting a couple of weeks for the midpoint can be difficult.  Even now it's the best time, since it's almost too far in.

Anyway, it's safe to say that I missed a lot back in August.


original B1G prediction:  Ohio State over Wisconsin

I still think Ohio State will take the East, but Michigan is more than just a wildcard.  It's pretty much going to come down to the triumvirate of Ohio State/Michigan/Michigan State.  MSU already has a win over Michigan, but OSU still has to play both Michigan schools.

Meanwhile, in the west, Iowa is running away with everything.

new prediction:  Ohio State over Iowa

original Pac-12 prediction:  USC over Oregon

I missed this one.  Oregon is not that good this year, and Stanford has rebounded from a horrible week 1 loss to take over the North.  Utah is currently leading the south, but is one game away from everyone else joining in the chorus of "why not us?"

new prediction:  Stanford over Utah

original Big 12 prediction:  TCU

I'm still onboard with what I said in August.  "There are three teams to watch in the Big 12 -- TCU, Baylor, and Oklahoma."  Oklahoma State is also in the mix, but their 4-0 record is courtesy of the bottom feeders of the conference.

same prediction:  TCU

original SEC prediction:  Georgia over LSU

Georgia slipped, and could get overtaken by Florida.  So, I'll go with the winner of this weekend's game for the East.

LSU is literally running all over the West.  Ole Miss helped by knocking Alabama down, so hopefully they keep winning to keep that tiebreaker alive.  Although, LSU still has to play both of those teams.  If they lose to Alabama, but beat Ole Miss, then Alabama jumps back into the driver's seat.

new prediction:  LSU over Georgia

original ACC prediction:  Virginia Tech over Clemson

I messed up.  I didn't think the Hokies were going to crap the bed.  Clemson is going to win the Atlantic, and going to play the winner of the Pitt/Duke/UNC triangle.   I had said that UNC looked like they were going to be that team hovering around 3rd or 4th place that wouldn't be mathematically eliminated until very late.  Well, that spot is actually held by VT.

new ACC prediction:  Clemson over Pitt

Original CFP prediction:  Ohio State, TCU, USC, and Georgia.

Questions asked in August:
--Will the committee feel bad about leaving the Big 12 out last year?
Yet to be determined.

--Is Notre Dame going to shoot up the polls and force two conferences to sit out?
Still a possibility.

--If Ohio State and Virginia Tech both win out after Labor Day, could that lead to a potential rematch in the CFP?
No.  At this point, we want VT to win out after (and including) Halloween to get to a bowl.

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