And guess what, we actually have scenarios! I don't know if the games have fallen just right this year, or I just haven't had the fortitude to plot out too many scenarios (like the epic 17 scenarios for the ACC a couple years ago).
Teams listed as "on the edge" in regards to a bowl game are 5-6, and their bowl hopes live and die on their final game. We are not counting 5-7 as a bowl possibility.
ACC Wheel of Destiny
Atlantic Division Champion: Clemson (7-1)
Clemson won the division by beating every other team in the division.
Out of contention:
Louisville (7-1), Boston College (1-6), FSU (5-3), NC State (2-5), Syracuse (2-5), Wake Forest (3-4)
Coastal
This divisional race will be settled after Thanksgiving. UNC plays on Black Friday (and can settle the division with a loss), and VT plays on Saturday.Coastal
Controls destiny:
Virginia Tech (5-2) has the tiebreaker over UNC. They can clinch with a win (against UVA) OR a UNC loss (to NC State)
Needs help:
UNC (5-2) can clinch with a win (against NC State) AND a VT loss (to UVA).
Out of contention:
Pitt (4-3), Miami (4-3), UVA (1-6), Georgia Tech (4-4), Duke (1-6)
Bowl eligible: Clemson, Louisville, UNC, VT, Wake Forest, Florida State, Pitt, GT, Miami
On the edge: Boston College, NC State
No bowl: UVA, Syracuse, Duke
Atlantic vs. Coastal: Atlantic 7-4.
Atlantic wins: Wake Forest over Duke, Clemson over GT, FSU over Miami, Louisville over Duke, Syracuse over VT, Louisville over UVA, Wake Forest over UVA.
Coastal wins: Georgia Tech over BC, Virginia Tech over BC, UNC over FSU, Pitt over Clemson.
SEC Championship: Florida (6-2, East) vs. Alabama (7-0, West)
Both teams won their divisions outright by winning more conference games than anyone else.
Bowl eligible: Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, Texas A&M, Alabama, Florida, Auburn, Tennessee, Arkansas, LSU
On the edge: Vanderbilt, Ole Miss
No bowl: Missouri, Mississippi State
B1G
East
The B1G East comes down to Michigan State at Penn State and Michigan at Ohio State on Saturday. All three contenders are 7-1 in conference. Michigan beat Penn State, and Penn State beat Ohio State.
Scenario #1: Michigan and Penn State win.
Records: Michigan (8-1), Penn State (8-1), Ohio State (7-2)
Outcome: Michigan wins on head-to-head over Penn State.
Scenario #2: Michigan wins, Penn State loses.
Records: Michigan (8-1), Penn State (7-2), Ohio State (7-2)
Outcome: Michigan wins with best record.
Scenario #3: Ohio State and Penn State win.
Records: Michigan (7-2), Penn State (8-1), Ohio State (8-1)
Outcome: Penn State wins on head-to-head over Ohio State.
Scenario #4: Ohio State wins, Penn State loses.
Records: Michigan (7-2), Penn State (7-2), Ohio State (8-1)
Outcome: Ohio State wins on best record.
Michigan can clinch the division with a win.
Penn State can clinch the division with a win AND a Michigan loss.
Ohio State can clinch the division with a win AND a Penn State loss.
Out of contention:
Indiana (3-5), Maryland (2-6), Michigan State (1-7), Rutgers (0-8)
West
The top four teams in the standings all play each other next week. Nebraska (6-2) travels to Iowa (5-3) on Friday, while Wisconsin (6-2) hosts Minnesota (5-3) on Saturday.
Wisconsin has tiebreakers over Iowa and Nebraska.
Nebraska has a tiebreaker over Minnesota.
Iowa has a tiebreaker over Minnesota.
Therefore, there are four possible scenarios that can play out.
Scenario #1: Nebraska and Wisconsin win
Records: Nebraska (7-2), Wisconsin (7-2), Iowa (5-4), Minnesota (5-4)
Outcome: Wisconsin would win on head-to-head over Nebraska.
Scenario #2: Nebraska and Minnesota win.
Records: Nebraska (7-2), Wisconsin (6-3), Iowa (5-4), Minnesota (6-3)
Outcome: Nebraska wins on best record.
Scenario #3: Iowa and Wisconsin win.
Records: Nebraska (6-3), Wisconsin (7-2), Iowa (6-3), Minnesota (5-4)
Outcome: Wisconsin wins on best record.
Scenario #4: Iowa and Minnesota win.
Records: Nebraska (6-3), Wisconsin (6-3), Iowa (6-3), Minnesota (6-3)
Records within group: Nebraska (1-2), Wisconsin (2-1), Iowa (2-1), Minnesota (1-2)
Outcome: Wisconsin would win on head-to-head over Iowa.
So, Iowa and Minnesota are out.
Wisconsin can clinch the division with a win OR a Nebraska loss.
Nebraska can clinch the division with a win AND a Wisconsin loss.
The division can only be decided on Friday if Nebraska loses.
Out of contention:
Iowa (5-3), Minnesota (5-3), Northwestern (4-4), Purdue (1-7), Illinois (2-6)
Bowl eligible: Michigan, Ohio State, Nebraska, Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa
On the edge: Maryland, Indiana, Northwestern
No bowl: Rutgers, Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois
Pac-12
North
This division will be determined on Friday during the Apple Cup: Washington (7-1) at Washington State (7-1). The winner will have the best record in the division.
Out of contention:
Stanford (6-3), Cal (2-6), Oregon State (1-6), Oregon (2-6)
South
Controls destiny:
Colorado (7-1) clinches the division with a win.
Needs help:
USC (7-2) is done with conference play. They clinch the division with a Colorado loss by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker.
Utah (5-3), UCLA (2-5), Arizona (0-7), Arizona State (2-5)
Bowl eligible: Washington, Washington State, Stanford, USC, Utah, Colorado
On the edge: Arizona State
No bowl: Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona, UCLA, California
Big 12
Since they don't have a conference title game, the Big 12 schedules some games for the first weekend of December. As it happens, one of the games is Oklahoma State (7-1) at Oklahoma (8-0), which will be a de facto championship game, as the winner will win the conference.
Out of contention:
West Virginia (5-2), Texas Tech (2-6), Kansas (1-7), Iowa State (2-6), Texas (3-5), Kansas State (4-3), TCU (3-4), Baylor (3-4)
Bowl eligible: Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State
One win away (5-5): TCU
On the edge (5-6): Texas
No bowl: Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech
Independents
Bowl eligible: BYU, Army
No bowl: Massachusetts, Notre Dame (Hokie Nation says "You're welcome, America.")
No comments:
Post a Comment