For the record, I like the divisional structure. It's easier to follow, especially in this crazy season.
There's probably a lot of information I'm glossing over or math I'm not completing. There are probably more teams eliminated than I have showing here. I'm pretty sure not all of the "needs" categories are correct, since winning percentages are coming into play in all conferences.
I'm changing up the percentages to show the minimum and maximum winning percentages to better compare the ACC teams. If there are 2 or more teams with a minimum winning percentage higher than a team's maximum percentage, then that team is out of contention.
The ACC has started cancelling games, so winning percentage might come into play. The average number of conference games is at 9.86.
ACC
Notre Dame (7-0) - 70%-100%
W: Duke, FSU, Louisville, Pitt, GT, Clemson, BC
L: none
Clemson (6-1) - 60%-90%
W: Wake Forest, uva, Miami, GT, Syracuse, BC
L: Notre Dame
Miami (6-1) - 60%-90%
W: Louisville, FSU, Pitt, uva, NC State, VT
L: Clemson
UNC (6-2) - 60%-80%
W: Syracuse, BC, VT, NC State, Duke, WF
L: FSU, uva
NC State (5-3) - 50%-70%
W: Wake Forest, Pitt, uva, Duke, FSU
L: Virginia Tech, UNC, Miami
Only in contention for the #2 seed, if at all:
Wake Forest (3-3) - 33%-66% (9 games)
W: uva, VT, Syracuse
L: Clemson, NC State, UNC
ND and the winner of Miami/UNC will have at least 7 wins, meaning any team with more than 3 losses is eliminated.
Out of contention:
Boston College (4-4) - 40%-60%
Pitt (4-4) - 40%-60%
Virginia Tech (4-4) - 40%-60%
Georgia Tech (2-4) - 20%-60%
Virginia (3-4) - 20%-60%
Louisville (2-6) - 20%-40%
Florida State (1-6) - 10%-50%
Duke (1-6) - 11%-33% (9 games)
Syracuse (1-7) - 10-30%
Big 12
Iowa State (6-1)
W: TCU, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Kansas, Baylor, Kansas State
L: Oklahoma State
Oklahoma (5-2)
W: Texas, TCU, Texas Tech, Kansas, Ok State
L: Kansas State, Iowa State
Oklahoma State (4-2)
W: WVU, Kansas, Iowa State, K-State
L: Texas, Oklahoma
Texas (4-2)
W: Texas Tech, Baylor, OK State, WVU
L: TCU, Oklahoma
WVU (4-3)
W: Baylor, Kansas, K-State, TCU
L: Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Texas
Kansas State (4-3)
W: Oklahoma, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas
L: WVU, OK State, Iowa State
TCU (3-4)
W: Texas, Baylor, Texas Tech
L: Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, WVU
Out of contention:
Texas Tech (2-5)
Baylor (1-5)
Kansas (0-6)
The teams in the Big 12 championship game will have to have at least 5 wins (out of 9 games). Iowa State is already there, and at least one of the Oklahoma schools will get to five by virtue of playing each other.
SEC
Since the SEC is keeping their divisions, and only expanded their cross-divisional schedule, I'm keeping the "controls destiny" format, but tweaking it. I'm only listing division teams in the win or loss column, as those are the ones affecting the tiebreakers. The SEC is playing 10 conference games this year, so it will take longer for some teams to clinch or get eliminated.
East
Controls destiny:
Florida (6-1)
W: South Carolina, Missouri, Georgia, Vanderbilt
L: none
Can clinch with a win AND a Missouri loss AND a Georgia loss
Needs help:
Georgia (5-2)
W: Tennessee, Kentucky
L: Florida
Needs: losses by Florida (2)
Missouri (3-3)
W: Kentucky, USCe
L: Tennesssee, Florida
Needs: losses by Florida (3)
Eliminated with a loss AND Florida win.
Out of contention:
Kentucky (3-5)
Tennessee (2-5)
South Carolina (2-6)
Vanderbilt (0-7)
West
Controls destiny:
Alabama (7-0)
W: Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Mississippi State
L: none
Needs help:
Texas A&M (5-1)
W: Mississippi State, Arkansas
L: Alabama
Needs: losses by Alabama (2)
Auburn (5-2)
W: Arkansas, Ole Miss, LSU
L: none
Needs: additional loss by Alabama
LSU (3-3)
W: Arkansas
L: Mississippi State, Auburn
Needs: losses by Auburn (2), additional losses by Texas A&M and Alabama (2)
Eliminated with a loss OR Alabama win.
Out of contention:
Arkansas (3-5)
Mississippi State (2-5)
Ole Miss (3-4)
Big Ten
The B1G is playing an 8 game schedule. The following week, everyone will play their counterpart from the opposite division in the same place in the standings. (So, 1 vs. 1, 7 vs. 7, etc.) Since cancelled games will not be rescheduled, any cancelled divisional matchups will be listed as "No Contest" to keep track of for tiebreaking purposes.
Big Ten teams need to play 6 games to be eligible for the title game. However, if the average number of conference games decreases, then a team must remain within two games of the average to be eligible. (Example - if everyone cancels at least one game, the average drops to 7, so a team only needs to play 5 games to be eligible.) The total number of conference games listed below is double the real number, because we're looking at what each individual team plays.
Conference total: 104 (out of 112)
Conference average: 7.42
It's possible that the conference average will round down to 7, so teams only need 5 games to be eligible, but don't hold me to that interpretation.
East
Controls Destiny:
Ohio State (4-0) - total: 7
W: PSU, Rutgers, Indiana
L: none
No contest: Maryland
Needs help:
Indiana (4-1) - total: 8
W: PSU, Rutgers, Michigan, Michigan State
L: Ohio State
Needs: losses by Ohio State (2)
Maryland (2-1) - total: 6
W: PSU
L: none
No contest: Ohio State, Michigan State
Needs: loss by Ohio State
Michigan State (1-3) - total: 7
W: Michigan
L: Rutgers, Indiana
Needs: additional losses by Indiana and Ohio State (2)
No contest: Maryland
Michigan (2-3) - total: 8
W: Rutgers
L: MSU, Indiana
Needs: losses by Indiana (3) and Michigan State, additional losses by Ohio State
Out of contention:
Rutgers (1-4) - total: 8
Penn State (0-5) - total: 8
West
Controls Destiny:
Northwestern (5-0) - total: 8
W: Iowa, Nebraska, Purdue, Wisconsin
L: none
Needs help:
Iowa (3-2) - total: 8
W: Minnesota
L: Purdue, Northwestern
Needs: losses by Purdue and Northwestern (3)
Wisconsin (2-1) - total: 6
W: Illinois
L: Northwestern
No contest: Nebraska, Purdue
Needs: losses by Northwestern (2)
Purdue (2-2) - total: 7
W: Iowa, Illinois
L: Northwestern, Minnesota
No contest: Wisconsin
Needs: losses by Northwestern (3) and Wisconsin
Minnesota (2-3) - total: 8
W: Illinois, Purdue
L: Iowa
Needs: additional losses by Northwestern, Purdue, and Wisconsin
Illinois (2-3) - total: 8
W: Nebraska
L: Wisconsin, Purdue
Needs: losses by Purdue (4), additional losses by Northwestern (2), losses or cancellation by Wisconsin
Eliminated with a loss OR Northwestern win.
Out of contention:
Nebraska (1-3) - total: 7
Nebraska's best possible winning percentage of 57% with a 4-3 record could not overcome Northwestern's worst possible winning percentage of 62.5% with a 5-3 record.
Pac-12
The Pac-12 is only playing 6 conference games this season. Teams need to be within one game of the conference average to be eligible. The Pac-12 has added some games to the schedule to replace multiple cancelled games.
Conference total: 62 (out of 72)
Conference average: 5.16
Assuming that the average rounds down to 5, then teams with only 4 games are still eligible.
North
Controls destiny:
Oregon (3-0) - total: 6
W: Stanford, Wazzu
L: none
Washington (2-0) - total: 5
W: Oregon State
L: none
No contest: Cal
Needs help:
Washington State (1-1) - total: 5
W: Oregon State
L: Oregon
No contest: Stanford
Needs: losses by Oregon (2)
Oregon State (1-2) - total: 6
W: Cal
L: Washington State, Washington
Needs: losses by Washington State (2)
Cal (0-2) - total: 5
W: none
L: Oregon State
No contest: Washington
Stanford (0-2) - total: 5
W: none
L: Oregon
No contest: Washington State
Needs: losses by Oregon (3), additional losses by Cal and Washington
South
USC (3-0) - total: 6
W: Arizona State, Arizona, Utah
L: none
Colorado (2-0) - total: 5
W: UCLA
L: none
No contest: Arizona State
Needs help:
UCLA (1-2) - total: 6
W: none
L: Colorado
No contest: Utah
Needs: losses by Colorado (2)
Arizona State (0-1) - total: 4
W: none
L: USC
No contest: Colorado
Needs: losses by USC (2)
Utah (0-1) - total: 4
W: none
L: USC
No contest: Arizona, UCLA
Needs: USC to lose out, and then some?
Arizona (0-2) - total: 5
W: none
L: USC
No contest: Utah
Needs: losses by USC (2)
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