Anti-Chaos Theory: Divisions Edition

One of the greatest parts of college football is cheering for chaos.  Whether that's to keep more teams alive from a national title race, a conference race, or simply bowl eligibility, the more chaotic, the more fun!  On the flip side, an anti-climactic story can be a major bummer. Which led me to wonder: how possible is it that the book gets written for 2021's FBS Divisions BEFORE the last week of the regular season?

All 10 FBS conference have Conference Championship Games.  So with 10 conferences come 20 spots. Eight of the conferences send their Division Champs to face off, while two (American and Big 12) are a simple "Top 2 goes" format. 

In the 2021 season, heading into the final 2 weeks of the regular season, 3 of those 20 spots have already been clinched:

• SEC East (Georgia) 
• Sun Belt West (Louisiana)
• American 1 of 2 (Houston)

Looking ahead to simplest-case Week 12 scenarios (the regular season's penultimate week), here is where each conference stands:

ACC

• Wake Forest can clinch the Atlantic with a win against Clemson.
• Pitt can clinch the Coastal with a win against UVA.

American

• Cincy can clinch the other spot with a win against SMU.

Big Ten

• Ohio State can clinch the East with a win against Michigan State, AND a Michigan loss to Maryland.
• Wisconsin can clinch the West with a win against Nebraska, AND losses by Iowa (to Illinois) and Minnesota (to Indiana).

Big 12

• Oklahoma State can clinch a spot with a win against Texas Tech.
• Oklahoma can clinch a spot with a win against Iowa State, AND a Baylor loss to Kansas State.

Conference USA

• UTSA can clinch the West with a win against UAB.
• Western Kentucky can clinch the East with a win against FAU, AND a Marshall loss to Charlotte.

MAC

• Northern Illinois can clinch the West with a win against Buffalo
• The East CANNOT be clinched in Week 12, as the two leading teams (Kent State, Miami-OH) are currently tied in the standings and play each other Week 13.

Mountain West

• Utah State can clinch the Mountain with a win against Wyoming, AND a Boise State loss to New Mexico.
• The West CANNOT be clinched in Week 12, as the team that beat current division leader San Diego State (Fresno State) is idle and is within 1 game of SDSU.

PAC-12

• The Oregon (North) - Utah (South) winner WILL clinch its Division.
• Even with a loss, Oregon can still clinch the North with a loss by Oregon State (to Arizona State).
• Even with a loss, Utah can still clinch the South with a loss by Arizona State (to Oregon State).

SEC

• Alabama can clinch the West with a win against Arkansas.

Sun Belt

• Appalachian State can clinch the East with a win against Troy.

By my count, of the remaining 17 spots in Conference Championship Games that can still be clinched, as many as 15 of them can be clinched this coming week.  Only 1 is guaranteed (the Utah-Oregon winner). 

So now the question is: how likely are these to occur?   In order to answer that, I'll group the teams into tiers of simplicity - starting with the simplest.

WIN AND IN (10 teams, up to 9 of these can win, 1 guaranteed to)

Wake

Pitt

Cincy

Oklahoma State

UTSA

Northern Illinois

Oregon/Utah

Alabama

Appalachian State

WIN + 1 OTHER GAME (4 teams)

Ohio State (other game: big upset, Michigan 15-pt. favorite over MD)

Oklahoma (other game: rankings upset, but K-St 2-pt. favorite  over Baylor)

Western Kentucky (other game: big upset, Marshall 15-pt. favorite over Charlotte)

Utah State (other game: huge upset; Boise St. 26-pt. favorite over New Mexico)

WIN + 2 OTHER GAMES (1 team)

Wisconsin (other 2 games: mild upsets; Iowa favored by 10, Minn. favored by 5)

Based on the above tiers, here are my takeaways:

• In the "win and in" group, the only underdogs are Wake (by 5 to Clemson) and Oregon (by 3 to Utah), both on the road.
• Of all 15 teams listed above, 5 would lose control of their destiny heading into Week 13 with a loss: Pitt, UTSA, Ohio State, Utah State, and Wisconsin.
• In either of the "win + other" groups, the likeliest one to hit, based on lines, in Week 12 would be the Oklahoma situation (a win, plus K-St. over Baylor).
• The Utah-Oregon loser can still clinch their Division if their in-division rival from the Arizona St. Oregon St. game also loses! 
• For what it's worth, the Utah-Oregon game plays first (7:30 ET on ABC), with the other game airing in late-night (10:30 ET on ESPN). This means that the first division will be clinched by a win and not a loss!

And to that end, here is what I predict:

• Of the 9 matchups involving "win and in" teams, 7 of the clinches happen by virtue of winning the game.
• NONE of the "win + other" setups produce a clinch.
• The Oregon-Utah loser DOES get the clinch by virtue of their needed OSU-ASU team losing.
• At least TWO of the other P5 conferences have a still-open CCG slot entering the final weekend.
• As such, a total 8 CCG spots will get clinched in Week 12. Add this to the 3 already clinched, and we have a total of 11.
• In turn, this gives us 9 CCG spots to be clinched in the final weekend of the regular season.  Not quite the "every twist and turn" thrill that pure chaos gives us, but at least not a pure stone-etching before the story of the season.