Looking forward to 2015: B1G

Tony and I collaborated to bring you this look at the 2015 season for the B1G.  Since VT plays two teams from this conference, I thought I had a decent enough head start.  I tried to just look down each's teams schedules and find a game that popped out, but for some teams, it was harder with limited knowledge of their standing in the conference.

East
Indiana - It could be a battle for the bottom of the division against Rutgers, as both teams figure to contend for bowl eligibility.  This mid-season matchup could be the one that makes or breaks that goal. The Hoosiers have been lauded for their offense, and it will take winning the mid-tier games like this in order to truly grow as a program. 

Rutgers at Indiana, October 17.

Maryland - The Big Ten team formerly of the ACC will go to play a Big 12 team, formerly of the Big East.  It looks like it'll be two middle of the road teams in either conference, but it's a decent out of conference scheduling attempt.

Maryland at West Virginia, September 26.

Michigan - Big Blue has a decent nonconference schedule, and a brand new head coach.  But there's too much uncertainty to know if we'll be getting a Michigan team that returns to form.  So, we'll take the cop-out and say Ohio State.  Harbaugh vs Meyer, Round 1.  And with the Buckeyes coming off a potentially huge matchup against the Spartans, this edition of "The Game" could become a classic in the making.

Michigan at Ohio State, November 28.

Michigan State - They get a rematch in week 2 against the team that knocked them out of national title contention.  A battle of all green!

Oregon at Michigan State, September 12.

Ohio State - As a Hokie fan, this one's easy.

Ohio State at Virginia Tech, September 7.

Penn State - While Ohio State could be a huge game nationally, it'll be the game against Rutgers that shows just how far Penn State has come since their squeaker of a win last year.  Winning's one thing; can the Nittany Lions win impressively?

Penn State at Rutgers, September 19.

Rutgers - Ditto.  This should be a great revenge game, after coming oh-so-close last year.  It's early, too, which could help Rutgers in pulling the upset. Another close game could really help fuel this border state series into the makings of a rivalry.

Penn State at Rutgers, September 19.

West
Illinois - The Illini made strides last year, until ultimately falling in their bowl game to Louisiana Tech from C-USA.  This matchup with UNC is the nonconference game that will tell Illinois just where they stand in 2015, and should go a long way in determining the "ACC-Big Ten Football Challenge" winner.

Illinois at UNC, September 19.

Iowa - The last 2 times Iowa and Pitt have played, Iowa overcame multi-score defecits to pull off the win.  I would love to see Pitt turn it around, especially with Pat Narduzzi around (who had done briliantly on defense against Iowa the last couple times as Michigan State's DC) .

Pitt at Iowa, September 19.

Minnesota - The Gophers are usually the forgotten team of the B1G.  But they do manage to cause a bit of a splash by hosting TCU on the first Thursday of the season.

TCU at Minnesota, September 3.

Nebraska - The Cornhuskers have a nice week three non-conference matchup against the U.  While it might lack the luster that such a meeting would have provided even ten years ago, it is nice to see a home and home series between two Power 5 teams.

Nebraska at Miami, September 19.

Northwestern - It was a toss up between Stanford and Duke, but Tony thinks that Duke and NW are more evenly matched, and will need a win more from this game.

Northwestern at Duke, September 19.

Purdue - The only reason this team has any bright spot on this schedule is that they're playing our home team.  Go Hokies.

Virginia Tech at Purdue, September 19.

Wisconsin - The team that Ohio State beat to get to the CFP faces off against the team that lost to them in the first round.  This will be the prime primetime game on the first Saturday.

Wisconsin vs. Alabama at AT&T Stadium, September 5.

2015 Look-Ahead: Back to a Bowl (Power 5 Edition)

When predicting bowl matchups, I’ve seen instances where the teams from the previous year were simply copied, pasted, and shuffled to be consistent with preseason rankings. And often with rational explanations. But looking through some recent history, I cannot agree with an approach that simple. 

 

What if? An 8 team CFP

Now that we have a Playoff in college football, what is left for fans to lament?

Well, the big issue now is the number of teams in the CFP.  The next logical expansion would be 6 or 8 teams.  The only difference in the two scenarios is that the #1 and #2 teams would get a bye in round one.  Of course, the caveat is that maybe the rankings would be slightly different if the committee was seeding for 8.

Round One
#1 Alabama (SEC, 12-1) vs. #8 Michigan State (B1G, 10-2)
#2 Oregon (Pac-12, 12-1) vs. #7 Mississippi State (SEC, 10-2)
#3 Florida State (ACC, 13-0) vs. #6 TCU (Big 12, 11-1)
#4 Ohio State (B1G, 12-1) vs. #5 Baylor (Big 12, 11-1)

That gives us 2 teams each from the SEC, Big 12, and B1G; with one team each from the Pac-12 and ACC.

Round Two
Alabama/Michigan State vs. Ohio State/Baylor
Oregon/Mississippi State vs. Florida State/TCU

Maybe the Playoff would have ended the same way.  At the very least, we would have had four more games to watch.

Looking forward to 2015: ACC

We're in the part of the offseason where everyone is making lists, including "the 10 biggest games of the season".  Instead of following that trend, we're looking at the one game from each team that we're most looking forward to.  Now, some of these could be due to potential title implications, and some could just be due to intriguing matchups or locations.

First up, the Atlantic Coast Conference.  I'm trying my best to not just pick the VT game for every team, but in some cases, it really is the most intriguing game on a schedule (to me).

Coastal
Duke - This one is a toss up between the two Techs.  While Duke plays GT earlier in the season as the conference opener, I'm going to lean towards the VT matchup in October.  Duke should go 3-1 at worst in non-conference games, and GT is always a toss up because of their own system.  I think the Duke at VT game will let us know what kind of shot Duke has at contending for the division title.

Duke at Virginia Tech, October 24.

Georgia Tech - While I'm interested to see if GT can repeat against in-state rival Georgia, I really want to see Bud Foster's defense wipe that smug look off of Coach Chinball's face.

Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, November 12.

Miami - The U has a nice week three non-conference matchup against Nebraska.  While it might lack the luster that such a meeting would have provided even ten years ago, it is nice to see a home and home series between two Power 5 teams.

Nebraska at Miami, September 19.

UNC - The season opener against South Carolina is the biggest marquee game that the Tar Heels have this year.  At best, I think UNC will be a minor annoyance to the contenders of the Coastal, being right on the edge of contention until November.

North Carolina vs South Carolina in Charlotte, September 3.

Pitt - As a Hokie fan, I can't stand Pitt.  They've been a thorn in our side for far too long, and there's really only two games on their schedule that stand out to me:  VT and Notre Dame.  As a VT fan, I'm leaning towards that game, since I know I'll actually be making an attempt to watch it.

Pitt at Virginia Tech, October 3.

UVA - As much as this team sucks, they really do try when it comes to scheduling.  Unfortunately for them, they got overconfident and just cannot survive the murderer's row of non-conference games that they have set up in recent years.  The ACC deal with Notre Dame isn't helping them this year either.  Their matchup with Boise State might have been interesting about three years ago.  They do have a season opening rematch against UCLA, which was a closer game last year than it had any right being.  While I should probably put the season finale on the list, I will admit to checking out the UCLA game to get a feel for this year's team.

UVA at UCLA, September 5.

Virginia Tech - This one is the easiest on the list.  The Labor Day opener against Ohio State is easily the biggest ticket in Lane Stadium in at least a decade.  The only matchups that come close are the 2003 and 2005 contests with Miami.

Ohio State at Virginia Tech, September 7.

Atlantic
Boston College - They play a game in a baseball stadium this year.  That sounds like fun.

Boston College vs. Notre Dame at Fenway Park, November 21.

Clemson - It's the game that has broken the Tigers' season the last two or three years, but this year could turn the tide.  An added bonus is that it's later in the season, so it might keep the Atlantic interesting a little longer.

Florida State at Clemson, November 7.

Florida State - The Seminoles have a few interesting quirks in their schedule.  Their week 2 game against USF kicks off at 11:30 am on ESPN (shortening Gameday).  Later on in the season, they scheduled NC State for homecoming in November.  Really?  A late homecoming against the one divisional team that gives you the most fits?  NC State may or may not be good in any given season, or any given game.  But the one constant is that they do not play by the script, and do not make for a good homecoming opponent.  If you're going to wait until November for homecoming, why not just wait an extra week when you play Chattanooga as your cupcake before the rival finale?  Still, I think I'm going with the Louisville game, as it could be a passing of the torch in the Atlantic.

Louisville at Florida State, October 17.

Louisville - I'm going with easily the best non-conference game on their schedule.

Louisville vs. Auburn at the Georgia Dome, September 5.

NC State - Like I said in the FSU writeup, NC State is a pain in the ass for the ACC.  They always seem to play FSU a lot closer than paper would indicate.  And this year, FSU decided to make the Wolfpack the homecoming foe?  With FSU on a possible decline, this could make for an interesting late season game.

NC State at Florida State, November 14.

Syracuse - They play LSU?  I wonder when this deal was made.

LSU at Syracuse, September 26.

Wake Forest - Last year, WF's only claim to mediocrity was winning an overtime game that ended regulation in a 0-0 tie.  Since that game isn't being rematched this year, there's no conference game that jumps out.  The only team that is keeping Wake Forest's non-conference slate from the absolute bottom of the dogheap is Notre Dame, but even that was forced upon them by the conference.  The rest of the slate includes Elon (obligatory FCS), and perennial bottom feeders of Army and Indiana.  I can't even pick a game in good conscious here.

In honor of the NFL's new extra point rules...

Now that the defense can score on extra points in the NFL, here's a video of what could be an unintended consequence, courtesy of Oregon, Kansas State, the Fiesta Bowl, and Ron Cherry.

To recap, the scoring team (in this clip, Oregon) lined up for an extra point attempt.  The kick was blocked and recovered by the defense (K-State), who then ran backwards into their own endzone, and then got tackled by the kicking team.  Therefore, the kicking team got 1 point.

College Football Hypotheticals

May 9 marks the midpoint between the 2014 season’s Championship Game and the 2015 season’s kickoff.  And with the offseason in full swing, I thought I’d take a look at some hypotheticals that have been discussed throughout the college football community.

Is Friday the new Thursday?

Lately, I’ve noticed an increase in Friday night games.  Just a few years ago, this was seen as a “mid-major” night, given the nature of Friday night to carry some of the lowest ratings on TV. Thursday nights, however, has been seen since the mid-late 90’s as a College Football equivalent of “Monday Night Football” – a prime non-Saturday game of the week – and has been filled much more often by major conference teams.

Conference Championship Games: Battle of the “Best”?

With the Big 12 Commissioner’s statements about Conference Championship Game (CCG) deregulation, fan discussions have started once again regarding how these championship games ought to be.

What if the ACC had three divisions?

“I think there’s some belief that ACC would play three divisions, have two highest-ranked play in postseason.” --Bob Bowlsby, Big 12 Commissioner and chairman of the new NCAA Football Oversight Committee.

I shouldn't even give this topic a lot of thought, since it's just a theory proposed by the commissioner of another conference.  Especially when said commissioner didn't have the guts to declare a clear cut champion in his conference immediately after implementing the slogan of "One True Champion."

The biggest problem the ACC has faced with their championship game is that usually one division is stronger than the other in any given year.  Most often, the top two teams in the conference are in the same division.  For the last couple of years, it's been Florida State and Clemson.  Before that, it was often Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech.

The other problem that the conference would face would be the game of hot potato that one division (usually the Coastal) likes to play with the divisional championship.

Trying to implement 3 divisions would be tricky, especially in a 14 team conference.  Is the ACC trying to force Notre Dame into full time membership, or are they looking at another school to get to 15?

So, let's see who would have been in the ACC Championship game over the last two seasons with this three division mess.  For the purposes of this exercise, we're going to go with the actual conference records, even though they probably wouldn't be playing the exact same teams.  (And as usual, only conference records matter in these scenarios.)

Let's try a mostly geographic breakdown.

North - BC, Syracuse, Pitt, VT, UVA

North Carolina - UNC, NC State, Duke, WF

South - FSU, Miami, GT, Clemson, Louisville

In 2013, the division champs would be Virginia Tech (5-3), Duke (6-2), and Florida State (8-0).  The top two would give us Duke vs. Florida State, which is what we got.  In both scenarios, Clemson (7-1) gets left out.

In 2014, we would get Pitt (4-4, plus head-to-head over BC), Duke (5-3), and Florida State (8-0).  The top two would again be Duke vs. Florida State.  The real life game was FSU vs. Georgia Tech (6-2).  Once more, Clemson (6-2) gets left out in both scenarios, although it.

However, knowing what we know about the ACC, they would never go for this sort of alignment.  After all, they put Florida State and Miami in opposite divisions expecting them to battle for the conference championship every year.  They want to come up with some alternative to get Florida State playing Clemson for the championship currently.

Basically, FSU, Clemson, and Miami would be in separate divisions, because the ACC wants a combination of those three teams in the title game.

Seminole Division - FSU, NC State, Louisville, Pitt

Hurricane Division - Miami, UNC, BC, VT, UVA

Tiger Division - Clemson, GT, Duke, Wake Forest, Syracuse

(For the record, I don't endorse this as a real divisional plan for the ACC.  I just needed something that divided the teams that made some bit of sense other than geography.)

2013 would have given us Florida State (8-0), Virginia Tech (5-3, plus head-to-head over Miami), and Clemson (7-1).  This would finally give us the FSU vs. Clemson match-up, and would actually be the top two teams in the conference.

2014 would have had Florida State (8-0), either UNC or Boston College (4-4, no head-to-head), and Georgia Tech (6-2, plus head-to-head over Clemson).  Again, we would have gotten the FSU/GT game.

Let's take it further back.  We'll go to 2012 with the non-geographic divisions, but with some tweaking to account for only the 12 team league we had back then.

Seminole Division - FSU, NC State, Maryland, UNC

Hurricane Division - Miami, BC, VT, UVA

Tiger Division - Clemson, GT, Duke, Wake Forest

We would have Florida State (7-1), Miami (5-3), and Clemson (7-1). Again, we get the FSU/Clemson match up that was so desired.  The real life game was FSU vs. GT, partly due to sanctions on Miami and UNC.

Of course, these examples aren't perfect because changing the divisions would change the makeup of the schedule.  Overall, it just looks like needlessly overcomplicating what should be a simple procedure.

What if the ACC abolished divisions?

Now that we finally have a playoff system, one of the more heated debates in college football now is the determination of a conference champion.  While the Big 12 is trying to change the 12 team requirement for a championship game (even though they play 9 conference games and a full round robin schedule), the ACC has floated the idea of doing away with divisions and just picking the "best two teams" in the conference.

A problem that faces the ACC is that most teams in one division rarely ever play a team from the opposite division.  With only 8 conference games, and 7 teams in either division, there is only two non-division spots left on the schedule.  Since the ACC has yet to abolish the permanent crossover rival, there is only one rotating spot in the schedule that allows a Coastal team to face off against an Atlantic foe.  It is literally impossible for a student-athlete in the ACC to face every single team during their eligibility.  (Technically, it could be done with the conference championship game, but it's highly unlikely.)

Obviously, the biggest obstacle to just getting rid of divisions are the rivalry games.  While it's easy to say, just rotate among the other 13 teams, there are some games that need to be played every year.  Therefore, some pairings should be protected.

The simplest scenario would be for each team to have 3 protected rivalries, leaving 5 rotating spots.  This would ensure playing every team in the conference in a home and away series in any given four year span.

We tried working with 2 or 4 protected games, but the math for the rotating spots was starting to get messy.

Below is a chart of teams that we think would work out.  Some matchups were easy to determine (Virginia Tech/UVA, Miami/Florida State, the 3 main North Carolina schools).  A few teams got thrown together because none were left.  And there are a few matchups that are just hypothetical possibilities, often based on geography.  We decided that if all else were equal, a school would prefer to play the closest teams on a yearly basis to conserve their travel budget.

Teams in bold are the ones that we feel would be locks.  All other teams are our own conjecture.

Boston College -- Syracuse, Pitt, Wake Forest
Clemson -- Georgia Tech, Florida State, NC State
Duke -- UNC, Wake Forest, NC State
Florida State -- Miami, Clemson, Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech -- Clemson, UVA, Florida State
Louisville -- Pitt, Miami, Virginia Tech
Miami -- Florida State, Virginia Tech, Louisville
UNC -- Duke, UVA, NC State
NC State -- Duke, Clemson, UNC
Pitt -- Louisville, Boston College, Syracuse
Syracuse -- Boston College, Wake Forest, Pitt
UVA -- Virginia Tech, UNC, Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech -- UVA, Miami, Louisville
Wake Forest -- Syracuse, Duke, Boston College

Since Louisville is so new to the conference (and doesn't even have history with the teams that left the Big East in the first expansion), they were the hardest to pick.  Wake Forest was also difficult, because outside of Duke, they just don't seem to have any preferred rivals.

BC, Syracuse, and Pitt would most likely prefer staying up in the north against each other.

It might seem as a surprise to not protect the Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech rivalry, but honestly, I think Bud Foster would prefer it this way.  As intense as that game gets, I don't think either side would mind dropping down to only half as often.  For VT fans, it would be a welcome trade to get a chance to play Clemson and Florida State on a more regular basis.

Personally, I like the idea of divisions.  There is less ambiguity in the standings.  You know that the two teams in the championship game have played all other 12 teams between the two of them.  Without divisions, it's possible that the top two teams might not have played two or three teams at all.

That being said, I still would like to see the divisions tweaked.  Not a straight geographic split, as that would just give us Old Big East vs. Old ACC, and no one wants that.  Shift a couple of teams around and get rid of the permanent crossover, to allow for 2 rotating spots a year.