Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Week 8 wrap up

Sorry, Miami, you are still not back.

And Ohio State lost.  Well, that's what I get for deciding to switch to the game on ESPN after baseball because I figured it would be on longer.

Apparently, a lot of teams got gifted with a bye, or nonconference game this week.

Oh, and the magic number is coming back.  As I explain every year, that's determined by taking the team with the most wins in the division and adding the remaining number of games to their loss column, then adding one.  Any team that has the magic number or higher in the loss column is automatically out.  We have a few teams dangerously close to that number.  There's probably a few teams that are pretty much eliminated from contention, but I would have to work through a lot of tiebreakers to be 100% sure.  Since that's usually a waste of time, I'll hold off until announcing them being out until I am sure.

Now, on to the conference races...


ACC Wheel of Destiny
Atlantic
Magic number:  5

Controls destiny:
Clemson (4-0) has tiebreakers over Louisville, BC, and NC State.

Needs help:
Louisville (4-1) needs two Clemson losses.  They have tiebreakers over FSU, NC State, and Syracuse.
FSU (2-2) needs 2 Louisville losses, plus an extra loss from Clemson.  They have a tiebreaker over Wake Forest.
NC State (1-2) needs three Clemson losses and two Louisville losses.  They have a tiebreaker over Wake Forest.
Wake Forest (2-2) needs one NC State loss, one FSU loss, and an extra Clemson loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Syracuse.
Syracuse (2-2) needs two Louisville losses, a Wake Forest loss, and two extra Clemson losses.  They have a tiebreaker over BC.

Just start winning:
Boston College (0-4) lost to Clemson and Syracuse, and both cross-divisional games.  They are officially out of contention with either a loss OR a win by either Clemson or Louisville.

Coastal
Magic number: 5

Controls destiny:
Virginia Tech (3-1) has tiebreakers over UNC and Miami.

Needs help:
UNC (4-1) needs a VT loss, but has tiebreakers over Pitt and UVA.
Pitt (2-1) needs a UNC loss, but has tiebreakers over GT and UVA.
UVA (1-2) needs 2 Pitt losses and 2 UNC losses, but has a tiebreaker over Duke.
Miami (1-3) needs two UNC losses and two VT losses, plus an extra Pitt loss. They have a tiebreaker over GT.

Just start winning:
Georgia Tech (1-3) lost to Miami and Pitt.
Duke (0-3) lost to UVA.  For the record, that phrase should never have to be uttered.  Shame, Duke (and Central Michigan, as well).

Bowl eligible:  Clemson, Louisville, UNC
One win away:  Florida State, Wake Forest, Pitt, VT
Two wins away:  NC State, Miami, GT, Syracuse

Atlantic vs. Coastal:  Atlantic 5-3.
Atlantic wins: Wake Forest over Duke, Clemson over GT, FSU over Miami, Louisville over Duke, Syracuse over VT.
Coastal wins: Georgia Tech over BC, Virginia Tech over BC, UNC over FSU.


SEC
East
Magic number:  6

Controls destiny:
Florida (3-1) has tiebreakers over Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt.  They lost to Tennessee.

Needs help:
Tennessee (2-2) needs a Florida loss.  They have tiebreakers over Florida and Georgia.
Kentucky (3-2) needs two Florida losses.  They have tiebreakers over SC and Vanderbilt.
Georgia (2-3) needs two Tennessee losses and an extra loss by Florida, but has tiebreakers over Missouri and South Carolina.

Just start winning:
South Carolina (1-4) has a tiebreaker over Vanderbilt, but lost to Georgia and Kentucky.
Vanderbilt (1-3) has a tiebreaker over Georgia, but lost to SC and Florida.
Missouri (0-3) lost to Georgia and Florida.

West
Magic number:  4

Controls destiny:
Alabama (5-0) has tiebreakers over Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Arkansas.

Needs help:
Texas A&M (4-1) needs two Alabama losses.  They have tiebreakers over Auburn and Arkansas.
Auburn (3-1) needs a Texas A&M loss, but has tiebreakers over LSU, Arkansas, and Mississippi State.
LSU (3-1) needs an Auburn loss, but has tiebreakers over Mississippi State and Ole Miss.

Just start winning:
Arkansas (1-3) lost to Alabama, Auburn, and Texas A&M, but has a tiebreaker over Ole Miss.
Ole Miss (1-3) lost to Alabama, Arkansas, and LSU.
Mississippi State (1-3) lost to LSU and Auburn.

An Alabama win would adjust the magic number to 3, which would eliminate all three of the bottom teams.  Or, a loss would automatically eliminate any of the bottom teams.

Bowl eligible:  Texas A&M, Alabama
One win away:  Tennessee, Florida, Auburn, LSU, Arkansas
Two wins away:  Kentucky, Georgia, Vanderbilt


B1G
East
Magic number:  6

Controls destiny:
Michigan (4-0) has tiebreakers over Penn State and Rutgers.

Needs help:
Penn State (3-1) needs two Michigan losses.  They have tiebreakers over Ohio State and Maryland.
Ohio State (3-1) needs a Penn State loss.  They have tiebreakers over Rutgers and Indiana.
Maryland (2-2) needs two Penn State losses, plus an extra loss by Ohio State.  They have a tiebreaker over Michigan State.

Just start winning:
Indiana (1-3) lost to Ohio State, but has a tiebreaker over Michigan State.
Rutgers (0-3) lost to Ohio State and Michigan.
Michigan State (0-4) lost to Indiana and Maryland.  They will be out of contention if they lose their next game (which is against Michigan).

West
Magic number: 6

Controls destiny:
Nebraska (4-0) has tiebreakers over Northwestern, Purdue, and Illinois.

Needs help:
Northwestern (3-1) needs two Nebraska losses.  They have a tiebreaker over Iowa.
Wisconsin (2-2) needs an extra loss by Nebraska.  They have a tiebreaker over Iowa.
Iowa (3-2) needs 2 Northwestern losses plus an extra loss from Nebraska.  They have a tiebreaker over Purdue.

Just start winning:
Minnesota (2-2) lost to Iowa.
Purdue (1-3) lost to Nebraska and Iowa, but has a tiebreaker over Illinois.
Illinois (1-3) lost to Nebraska and Purdue.

Bowl eligible:  Michigan, Ohio State, Nebraska
One win away:  Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Penn State, Maryland
Two wins away: Northwestern
Edge of no bowl:  Rutgers


Pac-12
North
Magic number: 6

Controls destiny:
Washington (4-0) has tiebreakers over Stanford, Oregon State, and Oregon.
Washington State (4-0) has tiebreakers over Oregon and Stanford.

Needs help:
Cal (2-2) has a tiebreaker over Oregon.  They lost to Oregon State.
Stanford (2-3) needs three Washington losses and three Washington State losses.
Oregon State (1-3) needs a Cal loss, plus extra losses by Washington and Washington State.

Just start winning:
Oregon (0-4) lost to Cal, Washington State, and Washington.

South
Controls destiny:
Utah (4-1) has tiebreakers over USC, UCLA, and Arizona.
Colorado (4-1) has a tiebreaker over Arizona State, but lost to USC.

Needs help:
Arizona State (2-3) needs 2 Colorado losses.  They have a tiebreaker over UCLA.
USC (3-2) needs 2 Utah losses and a Colorado loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Colorado.

Just start winning:
UCLA (1-4) lost to Arizona State and Utah.  They have a tiebreaker over Arizona.
Arizona (0-4) lost to Utah and USC.

Bowl eligible:  Washington, Utah, Colorado
One win away:  Washington State, Arizona State
Two wins away:  Stanford, USC, California


Big 12
Magic number:  6

Controls destiny:
Oklahoma (4-0) has tiebreakers over TCU, Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Texas.
Baylor (3-0) has tiebreakers over Oklahoma State, Kansas, and Iowa State.
West Virginia (3-0) has tiebreakers over Kansas State, TCU, and Texas Tech.

Needs help:
Oklahoma State (3-1) needs two Baylor losses.  They have tiebreakers over Texas, Kansas, and Iowa State.
TCU (2-2) needs 3 Oklahoma losses and 3 WVU losses.  They have tiebreakers over Iowa State and Kansas.
Kansas State (2-2) needs 3 WVU losses, plus extra losses from Baylor and Oklahoma.  They have tiebreakers over Texas Tech and Texas.

Just start winning:
Texas Tech (1-3) lost to Oklahoma, WVU, and Kanasa State.  They have a tiebreaker over Kansas.
Texas (1-3) lost to Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Oklahoma.  They beat Iowa State.
Kansas (0-4) lost to Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma State, and TCU.
Iowa State (0-4) lost to TCU, Baylor, Texas, and Oklahoma State.

The winless teams will be eliminated with a loss AND an Oklahoma win.

Bowl eligible:  Baylor, West Virginia
One win away:  Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Two wins away:  Kansas State, TCU
One loss away from no bowl:  Iowa State, Kansas

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