As usual, let's take a look at the ACC.
Currently, the first criteria is conference record, and then it goes to head-to-head.
In this scenario, the divisional record would be first, followed by head-to-head, and then conference record.
The first conference championship game was in 2005. Back in those days, Pitt, Syracuse, and Louisville had not yet joined, and Maryland was still a member. There were only 12 teams, 6 in each division. Therefore, each team played 5 divisional games, and 3 cross-divisional games.
2005
actual matchup: Florida State vs. Virginia Tech| Atlantic | Divisional | Conference. | Overall |
| Boston College | 4-1 | 5-3 | 8-3 |
| Florida State | 3-2 | 5-3 | 7-4 |
| Clemson | 3-2 | 4-4 | 7-4 |
| Wake Forest | 2-3 | 3-5 | 4-7 |
| NC State | 2-3 | 3-5 | 6-5 |
| Maryland | 1-4 | 3-5 | 5-6 |
Boston College would have taken the Atlantic on best record, even though they lost to FSU.
| Coastal | Divisional | Conference. | Overall |
| Virginia Tech | 4-1 | 7-1 | 10-1 |
| Miami | 4-1 | 6-2 | 9-2 |
| Georgia Tech | 3-2 | 5-3 | 7-4 |
| North Carolina | 2-3 | 4-4 | 5-6 |
| UVA | 2-3 | 3-5 | 6-5 |
| Duke | 0-5 | 0-8 | 1-10 |
Miami would actually take the Coastal by virtue of the head-to-head against VT.
2005 hypothetical matchup: Boston College vs. Miami.
2006
This was the first 12 game regular season.actual matchup: Wake Forest vs. Georgia Tech
| Atlantic | Divisional | Conference. | Overall |
| Wake Forest | 4-1 | 6-2 | 10-2 |
| Boston College | 3-2 | 5-3 | 9-3 |
| Maryland | 3-2 | 5-3 | 8-4 |
| Clemson | 3-2 | 5-3 | 8-4 |
| NC State | 2-3 | 2-6 | 3-6 |
| Florida State | 0-5 | 3-5 | 6-6 |
Wake Forest has the best record across the board.
| Coastal | Divisional | Conference. | Overall |
| Georgia Tech | 5-0 | 7-1 | 9-3 |
| Virginia Tech | 4-1 | 6-2 | 10-2 |
| UVA | 3-2 | 4-4 | 5-7 |
| Miami | 2-3 | 3-5 | 6-6 |
| North Carolina | 1-4 | 2-6 | 3-9 |
| Duke | 0-5 | 0-8 | 0-12 |
Georgia Tech had the best divisional and conference records.
2006 hypothetical matchup: Wake Forest vs. Georgia Tech.
2007
actual matchup: Boston College vs. Virginia Tech| Atlantic | Divisional | Conference. | Overall |
| Clemson | 4-1 | 5-3 | 9-3 |
| Boston College | 3-2 | 6-2 | 10-2 |
| Wake Forest | 3-2 | 5-3 | 8-4 |
| Florida State | 3-2 | 4-4 | 7-5 |
| Maryland | 2-3 | 3-5 | 6-6 |
| NC State | 0-5 | 3-5 | 5-7 |
Clemson would win with best divisional record, even though they lost to Boston College.
In the Coastal, Virginia Tech went 7-1 in conference, with the only loss coming to Boston College. Therefore, they swept the division.
2007 hypothetical matchup: Clemson vs. Virginia Tech.
Spoiler warning -- for the next four years, it's going to be boring, because the outcomes are the same.
2008
actual matchup: Boston College vs. Virginia TechIn both divisions, there was only one team with a 4-1 divisional record.
2008 hypothetical matchup: Boston College vs. Virginia Tech.
2009
actual matchup: Clemson vs. Georgia TechIn the Atlantic, Clemson and Boston College both finished with a 4-1 divisional record, but Clemson won the head-to-head. In the Coastal, Georgia Tech had the best record at 4-1.
2009 hypothetical matchup: Clemson vs. Georgia Tech.
2010
actual matchup: Florida State vs. Virginia TechVirginia Tech swept all of their conference games. Florida State went 6-2 in conference, with a 4-1 divisional record. They were the only Atlantic team to only lose 1 division game.
2010 hypothetical matchup: Florida State vs. Virginia Tech.
2011
actual matchup: Clemson vs. Virginia TechVirginia Tech's only loss that season was to Clemson, meaning they swept the Coastal. Clemson was 6-2 in conference, 4-1 in division. Wake Forest was the only other team with a 4-1 division record (5-3 in conference), but lost the head-to-head against Clemson.
2011 hypothetical matchup: Clemson vs. Virginia Tech.
2012
actual matchup: Florida State vs.I'm not going to look at this particular year, because of sanctions that actually kept the top two Coastal teams out of contention. The Atlantic was clear cut, as FSU and Clemson both only had one conference/divisional loss, and were the only teams in the division with such a record. Since FSU beat Clemson head-to-head, they were divisional champs.
Starting in 2013, the ACC expanded to 14 teams (and then replaced Maryland with Louisville the following season), which changed the conference schedule to 6 divisional and 2 cross-divisional games. Also, starting in 2013, the Atlantic champion was undefeated through the regular season, so it doesn't matter which metric we use.
2013
actual matchup: Florida State vs. Duke| Coastal | Divisional | Conference. | Overall |
| Virginia Tech | 5-1 | 5-3 | 8-4 |
| Georgia Tech | 4-2 | 5-3 | 7-5 |
| Duke | 4-2 | 6-2 | 10-2 |
| Miami | 4-2 | 5-3 | 9-3 |
| North Carolina | 2-4 | 4-4 | 6-6 |
| Pitt | 2-4 | 3-5 | 6-6 |
| UVA | 0-6 | 0-8 | 2-10 |
While Virginia Tech couldn't do much against the Atlantic, they had the best divisional record.
2013 hypothetical matchup: Florida State vs. Virginia Tech.
2014
actual matchup: Florida State vs. Georgia Tech| Coastal | Divisional | Conference. | Overall |
| North Carolina | 4-2 | 4-4 | 6-6 |
| Georgia Tech | 4-2 | 6-2 | 10-2 |
| Virginia Tech | 3-3 | 3-5 | 6-6 |
| Duke | 3-3 | 5-3 | 9-3 |
| Miami | 3-3 | 3-5 | 6-6 |
| Pitt | 2-4 | 4-4 | 6-6 |
| UVA | 2-4 | 3-5 | 5-7 |
UNC beat GT on the head-to-head, and would have advance to the championship game.
2014 hypothetical matchup: Florida State vs. North Carolina.
2015
actual matchup: Clemson vs. North CarolinaBoth teams came into the ACCCG with an 8-0 conference record, so they earned the spot on every metric.
2015 hypothetical matchup: Clemson vs. North Carolina.
So, we have ten seasons worth of data (since I'm avoiding 2012).
| Actual appearance | Hypothetical appearances | Difference | |
| Florida State | 4 | 3 | -1 |
| Wake Forest | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Boston College | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Clemson | 3 | 4 | +1 |
| Virginia Tech | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Georgia Tech | 3 | 2 | -1 |
| Duke | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| North Carolina | 1 | 2 | +1 |
| Miami | 0 | 1 | +1 |
Wake Forest, Boston College, and Virginia Tech still would have made the same number of appearances. Although, BC and VT would have been in different games.
The biggest winner is probably Miami, who actually would have made an appearance. Clemson and UNC also gain extra appearances.
The biggest loser is Duke, who never would have made an appearance. FSU and GT also lost appearances with this metric.
And for NC State, Maryland/Louisville, UVA, Pitt, and Syracuse, the different metric would not have mattered.
For what it's worth, in 2012, each of the three Coastal teams had a 5-3 record, a 3-2 Coastal record, and 1-1 vs each other. So while we can't say for sure, it's quite possible the same result would have happened (UNC on NCAA sanctions, Miami with a chance to self-impose, and 6-6 GT in the game by default).
ReplyDeleteGreat exercise, one I've pondered myself. Care if I follow up with one for the SEC? I've heard some of their coaches advocate for division record, so I suspect we'll have some neat quirks there.
SEC? Go for it!
ReplyDeleteI think the divisional record metric would be better appreciated now than in the 12 team league. Back then, it would have been a really big swing if someone swept their division, but did poorly in the other games. At least now, sweeping your division will guarantee a bowl.