New Year's Six projections - week 12

With the latest CFP rankings out, let's project the New Year's Six.

One aspect of other projections that drives me crazy is when there are two teams in the top 4 (or close to it) that have to play each other in the final weeks of the season (or a conference championship game).  While Ohio State and Michigan are #2 and #3 right now, we all know that both won't remain in the top 4 in two weeks.

The final edition of the 4-team CFP and NY6 will be the same rotation as the first one with the Rose and Sugar Bowls hosting the semi-finals.

The Fiesta Bowl is the most likely at-large bowl to host the Group of 5 participant.  In the previous 9 years of the NY6, the Fiesta Bowl has only featured the G5 team twice, while the Peach Bowl has featured the team 3 times.  The Cotton Bowl has featured the G5 team four times, but one of those was when the G5 team was in the semi-final.

Sugar Bowl:  1 Georgia vs. 5 Washington
Rose Bowl:  2/3 Ohio State/Michigan winner vs. 4 Florida State

Orange Bowl:  10 Louisville (projected ACC replacement) vs. 2/3 Ohio State/Michigan loser
(ACC Champ vs. highest ranked SEC/B1G/ND not in the semi-finals)

At-large participants:
6 Oregon
7 Texas
8 Alabama
9 Missouri
11 Oregon State
24 Tulane (G5)

My predictions from that pool of teams would be like this:

Peach Bowl:  8 Alabama vs. 11 Oregon State
Cotton Bowl:  7 Texas vs. 9 Missouri
Fiesta Bowl:  6 Oregon vs. 24 Tulane

Interestingly enough, it wouldn't take much to get the same top 4 teams as we had in the first CFP year - Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, and Ohio State.

If those four teams made it, I think the most likely rankings would be 1 Ohio State, 2 Florida State, 3 Oregon, 4 Alabama.  In which case, we would see the complete opposite seeding as 2014, but also flip flop the bowls.