Sunday, October 20, 2024

2024 Week 8 Wrap-Up

Helmet stickers to the Texas fans.  Is throwing trash onto the field a good idea?  Probably not, but apparently it's the only way to hold the officials accountable for bad calls.

Remember, everything here is conference record only.

We're looking at the potential undefeated teams in the conferences to determine if there could be any potential chaos at the end of the season with more than 2 undefeated teams when it comes time to select the participants for the conference championship games.

And we're finally getting to a point in the season where we can start mathematically eliminating teams from contention.

ACC
Clemson (5-0)
   W:  NC State, Stanford, FSU, Wake Forest, uva
Miami (3-0)
   W:  VT, Cal, Louisville
SMU (3-0)
   W:  FSU, Louisville, Stanford
Pitt (2-0)
   W:  UNC, Cal
Virginia Tech (2-1)
   W:  Stanford, BC
   L:  Miami

Syracuse (2-1)
   W:  GT, NC State
   L:  Stanford

Duke (2-1)
   W:  UNC, FSU
   L:  GT

Louisville (2-2)
   W:  GT, uva
   L:  SMU, Miami

GT (2-2)
   W:  FSU, Duke
   L:  Syracuse, Louisville

uva (2-2)
   W:  WF, BC
   L:  Louisville, Clemson

BC (1-2)
   W:  FSU
   L:  uva, VT

Wake Forest (1-2)
   W:  NC State
   L:  uva, Clemson
Stanford (1-3)
   W:  Syracuse
   L:  Clemson, VT, SMU

NC State (1-3)
   W:  Cal
   L:  Clemson, WF, Syracuse
FSU (1-5)
   W:  Cal
   L:  GT, BC, SMU, Clemson, Duke
UNC (0-2)
   L:  Duke, Pitt
Cal (0-4)
   L:  FSU, Miami, Pitt, NC State

Nothing changed in the conference undefeated ranks, so there is still the possibility of a Miami/Clemson/SMU tie at the end.

Really feeling for Cal.  Four conference losses by a combined total of 9 points -- with only four of those points coming from the last three games.

FSU has definitely been eliminated from contention for the #1 seed in the ACC championship game.  They are most likely eliminated from contention completely, but that would rely on tiebreakers.  They will definitely be out of contention with a loss (to Miami) OR a win by SMU.

Taking a moment to come back to my usual VT-centric view of college football, just to see what is still available to the Hokies.  They still have Clemson, Syracuse, and Duke on their schedule.  Wins against Syracuse and Duke would knock those teams out of the 1-loss tier, while a win against Clemson would provide a head-to-head tiebreaker.  That leaves Miami, SMU, and Pitt as concerns.  Ideally, VT needs all of those teams to lose a game, but would feel more comfortable if they all lose two games each.

SEC
Texas A&M (4-0)
   W:  Florida, Arkansas, Missouri, Miss St
LSU (3-0)
   W:  SC, Ole Miss, Arkansas
Georgia (4-1)
   W:  Kentucky, Auburn, Miss St, Texas
   L:  Alabama
Tennessee (3-1)
   W:  Oklahoma, Florida, Alabama
   L:  Arkansas

Texas (2-1)
   W:  Mississippi State, Oklahoma
   L:  Georgia

Vanderbilt (2-1)
   W:  Alabama, Kentucky
   L:  Missouri
Missouri (2-1)
   W:  Vandy, Auburn
   L:  Texas A&M

Arkansas (2-2)
   W:  Auburn, Tennessee
   L:  Texas A&M, LSU

Alabama (2-2)
   W:  Georgia, SC
   L:  Vandy, Tennessee

Florida (2-2)
   W:  Mississippi State, Kentucky
   L:  Texas A&M, Tennessee
Ole Miss (1-2)
   W:  SC
   L:  Kentucky, LSU
South Carolina (2-3)
   W:  Kentucky, Oklahoma
   L:  LSU, Ole Miss, Alabama

Oklahoma (1-3)
   W:  Auburn
   L:  Tennessee, Texas, SC

Kentucky (1-4)
   W:  Ole Miss
   L:  SC, Georgia, Vanderbilt, Florida
Mississippi State (0-4)
   L:  Florida, Texas, Georgia, Texas A&M
Auburn (0-4)
   L:  Arkansas, Oklahoma, Georgia, Missouri

The last two undefeated teams in conference play will not play each other, so no chaos there.  But the SEC should start thinking about the chaos that could exist among the 1-loss teams.

Since there are two teams that have already achieved 4 wins (Texas A&M and Georgia), we can say that 4-4 is the threshold for the worst possible record in the SEC championship game.  There is the possibility for teams to be eliminated from contention next week.

Eliminated from #1 seed contention with Texas A&M win:
Kentucky, Mississippi State, Auburn

Eliminated from contention with a loss:
Kentucky, Mississippi State, Auburn

Eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss AND Texas A&M win:
South Carolina, Oklahoma

Big Ten
Indiana (4-0)
   W:  UCLA, Maryland, Northwestern, Nebraska
Oregon (4-0)
   W:  UCLA, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue
Penn State (3-0)
   W:  Illinois, UCLA, USC
Illinois (3-1)
   W:  Nebraska, Purdue, Michigan
   L:  Penn State

Wisconsin (3-1)
   W:  Purdue, Rutgers, Northwestern
   L:  USC

Ohio State (2-1)
   W:  Michigan State, Iowa
   L:  Oregon

Michigan (2-2)
   W:  USC, Minnesota
   L:  Washington, Illinois
Nebraska (2-2)
   W:  Purdue, Rutgers
   L:  Illinois, Indiana
Michigan State (2-2)
   W:  Maryland, Iowa
   L:  Ohio State, Oregon
Iowa (2-2)
   W:  Minnesota, Washington
   L:  Ohio State, Michigan State
Washington (2-2)
   W:  Northwestern, Michigan
   L:  Rutgers, Iowa
Minnesota (2-2)
   W:  USC, UCLA
   L:  Iowa, Michigan
Northwestern (1-3)
   W:  Maryland
   L:  Washington, Indiana, Wisconsin
Maryland (1-3)
   W:  USC
   L:  Michigan State, Indiana, Northwestern

Rutgers (1-3)
   W:  Washington
   L:  Nebraska, Wisconsin, UCLA
USC (1-4)
   W:  Wisconsin
   L:  Michigan, Minnesota, PSU, Maryland
UCLA (1-4)
   W:  Rutgers
   L:  Indiana, Oregon, Penn State, Minnesota.
Purdue (0-4)
   L:  Nebraska, Wisconsin, Illinois, Oregon

Indiana, Penn State, and Oregon can all end the season undefeated, as they do not play each other at all.

USC can be eliminated with a loss AND wins by Indiana and Oregon.  (UCLA and Purdue are on a bye next week, otherwise they would face the same situation.)

Big 12
BYU (4-0)
   W:  Kansas State, Baylor, Arizona, Oklahoma State
Iowa State (4-0)
   W:  Houston, Baylor, WVU, UCF
Kansas State (3-1)
   W:  Oklahoma State, Colorado, WVU
   L:  BYU
Texas Tech (3-1)
   W:  Arizona State, Cincinnati, Arizona
   L:  Baylor

Cincinnati (3-1)
   W:  Houston, UCF, Arizona State
   L:  Texas Tech

Colorado (2-1)
   W:  Baylor, UCF, Arizona
   L:  Kansas State

WVU (2-2)
   W:  Kansas, Oklahoma State
   L:  Iowa State, Kansas State

Arizona State (2-2)
   W:  Kansas, Utah
   L:  Texas Tech, Cincy
TCU (2-2)
   W:  Kansas, Utah
   L:  UCF, Houston
UCF (1-3)
   W:  TCU
   L:  Colorado, Cincy, Iowa State
Arizona (1-3)
   W:  Utah
   L:  Texas Tech, BYU, Colorado

Utah (1-3)
   W:  Oklahoma State
   L:  Arizona, Arizona State, TCU

Houston (1-3)
   W:  TCU
   L:  Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas

Baylor (1-3)
   W:  Texas Tech
   L:  Colorado, BYU, Iowa State
Kansas (1-3)
   W:  Houston
   L:  WVU, TCU, Arizona State

Oklahoma State (0-4)
   L:  Utah, Kansas State, WVU, BYU

And just like that, the Big 12 is down to two undefeated teams in BYU and Iowa State who do not play each other.

Oklahoma State will be eliminated from #1 seed contention with a loss AND win by BYU.  If Iowa State wasn't on a bye next week, they could help completely eliminate Oklahoma State.

For those keeping score at home, there are only two conferences where we could see more than 2 undefeated teams in December - the ACC and Big Ten.

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