Starting to eliminate some teams from conference races, but I think next week will be where we can really begin to shake off the teams at the bottom of the standings. It's still too early to be worried about too many tiebreaker scenarios.
The one downside to all of the power conferences eliminating divisions and expanding to the point where each team avoids more teams than they play is that it's next to impossible to say that any team truly controls their own destiny. Even the undefeated teams. Look at the Big Ten with three such teams. If Oregon, Indiana, and Penn State all win out, one of them will be left out of the conference championship game, and it will have very little to do with how they performed on the field.
Remember, everything here is conference record only.
ACC
Clemson (5-0)
W: NC State, Stanford, FSU, Wake Forest, uva
Miami (4-0)
W: VT, Cal, Louisville, FSU
SMU (4-0)
W: FSU, Louisville, Stanford, Duke
Pitt (3-0)
W: UNC, Cal, Syracuse
Virginia Tech (3-1)
W: Stanford, BC, GT
L: Miami
Louisville (3-2)
W: GT, uva, BC
L: SMU, Miami
GT (3-3)
W: FSU, Duke, UNC
L: Syracuse, Louisville, VT
Syracuse (2-2)
W: GT, NC State
L: Stanford, Pitt
Duke (2-2)
W: UNC, FSU
L: GT, SMU
Wake Forest (2-2)
W: NC State, Stanford
L: uva, Clemson
uva (2-3)
W: WF, BC
L: Louisville, Clemson, UNC
BC (1-3)
W: FSU
L: uva, VT, Louisville
NC State (1-3)
W: Cal
L: Clemson, WF, Syracuse
UNC (1-3)
W: uva
L: Duke, Pitt, GT
Any of the three loss teams will be eliminated from contention for the #1 seed with a loss OR Clemson win. They will be fully eliminated with a win by SMU or Miami combined either with a loss OR Clemson win.
Out of contention for #1 seed:
Stanford (1-4)
W: Syracuse
L: Clemson, VT, SMU, WF
Cal (0-4)
L: FSU, Miami, Pitt, NC State
Stanford will be fully eliminated with a loss OR wins by either Miami or SMU.
Cal will be eliminated with wins by Miami or SMU. (They're on a bye next week.)
Out of contention:
FSU (1-6)
While FSU was most likely eliminated prior to this week due to tiebreakers that weren't worth investigating while still in October, their loss to Miami guaranteed that they will not be able to secure enough conference wins to achieve the #2 seed.
We came one play away from SMU falling out of the undefeated ranks. As it stands, we will see someone drop next week as SMU plays Pitt. An SMU victory would keep the possibility of a three way undefeated tie alive, while a Pitt victory would guarantee a maximum of two undefeated teams (as they will later play Clemson).
VT is the only team with a single conference loss. At this point, they are only concerned about the undefeated teams. They play Clemson in November, so they can pick up a head to head tiebreaker there. It looks like the easiest path for the #2 seed would be Pitt beating SMU and then losing to Clemson.
SEC
Texas A&M (5-0)
W: Florida, Arkansas, Missouri, Miss St, LSU
Georgia (4-1)
W: Kentucky, Auburn, Miss St, Texas
L: Alabama
LSU (3-1)
W: SC, Ole Miss, Arkansas
L: Texas A&M
Tennessee (3-1)
W: Oklahoma, Florida, Alabama
L: Arkansas
Texas (3-1)
W: Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt
L: Georgia
Arkansas (3-2)
W: Auburn, Tennessee, Mississippi State
L: Texas A&M, LSU
Alabama (3-2)
W: Georgia, SC, Missouri
L: Vandy, Tennessee
Vanderbilt (2-2)
W: Alabama, Kentucky
L: Missouri, Texas
Missouri (2-2)
W: Vandy, Auburn
L: Texas A&M, Alabama
Florida (2-2)
W: Mississippi State, Kentucky
L: Texas A&M, Tennessee
Ole Miss (2-2)
W: SC, Oklahoma
L: Kentucky, LSU
South Carolina (2-3)
W: Kentucky, Oklahoma
L: LSU, Ole Miss, Alabama
SC will be eliminated from contention from the #1 seed if they lose (to Texas A&M). A loss combined with a Georgia win will fully eliminate them.
Out of contention for #1 seed:
Oklahoma (1-4)
W: Auburn
L: Tennessee, Texas, SC, Ole Miss
Auburn (1-4)
W: Kentucky
L: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Georgia, Missouri
Oklahoma plays OOC next week, so they can only be eliminated based on other teams winning - most notably Georgia.
Auburn will be fully eliminated with a loss OR Georgia win.
Out of contention:
Kentucky (1-5)
Mississippi State (0-5)
Texas A&M is the only team undefeated in conference play. Now there's a bit of a logjam of 1 loss teams. We already have Georgia over Texas, and Georgia will play Tennessee in a couple of weeks. In addition, A&M ends the season against Texas, so they could be in the mix. Still room for a little bit of chaos, but it's probably easiest to deal with tiebreakers when there's a loss in the mix.
Big Ten
Oregon (5-0)
W: UCLA, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Illinois
Indiana (5-0)
W: UCLA, Maryland, Northwestern, Nebraska, Washington
Penn State (4-0)
W: Illinois, UCLA, USC, Wisconsin
Ohio State (3-1)
W: Michigan State, Iowa, Nebraska
L: Oregon
Illinois (3-2)
W: Nebraska, Purdue, Michigan
L: Penn State, Oregon
Wisconsin (3-2)
W: Purdue, Rutgers, Northwestern
L: USC, Penn State
Michigan (3-2)
W: USC, Minnesota, Michigan State
L: Washington, Illinois
Iowa (3-2)
W: Minnesota, Washington, Northwestern
L: Ohio State, Michigan State
Minnesota (3-2)
W: USC, UCLA, Maryland
L: Iowa, Michigan
Nebraska (2-3)
W: Purdue, Rutgers
L: Illinois, Indiana, OSU
Michigan State (2-3)
W: Maryland, Iowa
L: Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan
Washington (2-3)
W: Northwestern, Michigan
L: Rutgers, Iowa, Indiana
USC (2-4)
W: Wisconsin, Rutgers
L: Michigan, Minnesota, PSU, Maryland
Northwestern (1-4)
W: Maryland
L: Washington, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa
Maryland (1-4)
W: USC
L: Michigan State, Indiana, Northwestern, Minnesota
Rutgers (1-4)
W: Washington
L: Nebraska, Wisconsin, UCLA, USC
UCLA (1-4)
W: Rutgers
L: Indiana, Oregon, Penn State, Minnesota.
Purdue (0-4)
L: Nebraska, Wisconsin, Illinois, Oregon
Indiana, Penn State, and Oregon can all end the season undefeated, as they do not play each other at all.
Any of the 4-loss teams will be eliminated with a loss OR wins by Oregon and Indiana. They will be eliminated from contention for the #1 seed with just a win by Oregon or Indiana.
Big 12
BYU (5-0)
W: Kansas State, Baylor, Arizona, Oklahoma State, UCF
Iowa State (4-0)
W: Houston, Baylor, WVU, UCF
Kansas State (4-1)
W: Oklahoma State, Colorado, WVU, Kansas
L: BYU
Colorado (4-1)
W: Baylor, UCF, Arizona, Cincinnati
L: Kansas State
TCU (3-2)
W: Kansas, Utah, Texas Tech
L: UCF, Houston
Texas Tech (3-2)
W: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Arizona
L: Baylor, TCU
Cincinnati (3-2)
W: Houston, UCF, Arizona State
L: Texas Tech, Colorado
WVU (3-2)
W: Kansas, Oklahoma State, Arizona
L: Iowa State, Kansas State
Arizona State (2-2)
W: Kansas, Utah
L: Texas Tech, Cincy
Houston (2-3)
W: TCU, Utah
L: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas
Baylor (2-3)
W: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State
L: Colorado, BYU, Iowa State
Arizona (1-4)
W: Utah
L: Texas Tech, BYU, Colorado, WVU
Utah (1-4)
W: Oklahoma State
L: Arizona, Arizona State, TCU, Houston
Kansas (1-4)
W: Houston
L: WVU, TCU, Arizona State, Kansas State
Out of contention for #1 seed:
UCF (1-4)
W: TCU
L: Colorado, Cincy, Iowa State, BYU
Oklahoma State (0-5)
L: Utah, Kansas State, WVU, BYU, Baylor
If Iowa State or Kansas State win next week, that will guarantee at least two teams with a minimum of 5 wins. That will automatically eliminate any team with 5 or more losses.
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