Case Study: Power 5 Schedules

With discussions of conference vs. conference and winning percentages, I wanted to take a look at how different teams and different conferences create their schedules.  For example, Alabama has a good record against other Power 5 teams over the last few years, but a closer look at their schedule shows that they haven't played a Power 5 team out-of-conference outside of a neutral site game in at least 6 years.

Sit back, this is a long one with a lot of numbers.

It took 11 weeks this year

Hey, look what the ACC Atlantic did in 11 weeks this year!

What if . . . ACC divisions

It's always a hot topic in a conference that has 14 teams, but only 8 games per year.  So, what are the different ways to restructure the ACC, that could help out on some of the scheduling issues?

Week 8 recap - ACC

Since we still have scores trickling in from other conferences, I'm easing back in with just analysis of the ACC.

It hasn't been quite the season anyone predicted, as we see Duke on top of the Coastal Division.  I'm sure this has happened before, but only in September, when Duke was the only ACC team to play a conference game and win.  But this is late October, basically the end of the month for any team with a bye next week.

Coastal
Duke and Miami control their own destiny.  Even though Miami has one more loss, they have yet to play Duke, and a win would give them the head to head tiebreaker.
Virginia Tech needs to win out and have Duke lose another game.  VT has the head to head tiebreaker.
GT and UVA might still have a chance if everyone else loses, but it's so complicated, we can probably say they're unofficially out.

Atlantic
NC State controls their destiny.
Clemson needs to win out and have FSU lose one more.
FSU and Maryland need to win out and have NC State lose one more.

bowl eligible:  Duke, FSU, Clemson
one win away:  NC State
not eligibile:  UNC
one loss away:  UVA, Boston College

Games to watch that could determine who plays in Charlotte:
-NC State at Clemson, 11/17
-Miami at Duke, 11/24

Update on the Logan Thomas drinking game:
After four weeks of averaging 6 shots, we got 1.5 shots last week, and only 1 shot this week.
We're setting the over/under at 4.25 shots for the Thursday night game against Miami.

Logan Thomas drinking game

If you have watched a Virginia Tech game on television during the last two seasons, you have no doubt heard the commentators repeatedly remind you of the height and weight of quarterback Logan Thomas.  (6'6, 260)

Of course, such repetition leads to a drinking game.  Take a shot every time his height and weight are mentioned.  If only one of those is mentioned, take half a shot.  If you don't value your liver or your life, you can up it to a full shot for either stat.

This season, we are keeping track as best as we can of every mention.  I don't have numbers for the first two Tech games, since I was at the first one, and had to work during the second and did not have access to the game on ESPN3.  These numbers might not be exact, since sometimes they get slipped in casually, or I lose track between long stretches.

Pitt - 5.5 shots
Bowling Green - 7.5 shots

Two things seem to affect the number of mentions:
-The quality of announcers/the tier of broadcast.  (i.e. ESPN3 and ESPNU announcers are more likely to mention it than ESPN announcers)
-How many VT games the announcers have called in the last two or three years.

This could be the start of a new feature here.  The over/under on the LT drinking game.

I'm placing the over/under for the Cincinnati game at 6.5.  Will the announcers go over, under, or exactly at 6.5?

2011 recap: ACC

In the first of a series of 6, we do a quick recap of the 2011 season to remind everyone where these teams are standing going into 2012.

10 days until kickoff....

Countdown to kickoff: What If?

Back in the spring, between conference realignment, playoff debates, and rumors, the possibility was floated that we might be headed towards 16 team superconferences.

How might that play out?
13 days until kickoff....

Conference championships preview

Here's what we can look forward to this weekend in college football.

Pac-12:  UCLA at Oregon

UCLA is only in because USC is still sanctioned.  Otherwise, we'd be getting a rematch of a game that Oregon lost just two weeks ago.  As it stands, UCLA will either go to the Rose Bowl with a win, or no bowl with a loss.  Either way, their coach is fired.

SEC:  LSU vs. Georgia

An undefeated team against a team that started 0-2 and had fans calling for the coach to be fired.  There could be an upset here, but LSU wouldn't care, since they have enough of a stranglehold on the #1 spot in the BCS rankings that they're virtually assured of a trip to New Orleans.  Then again, so is Georgia if they win, but on a different day.

ACC:  Virginia Tech vs. Clemson

A rematch of a home blowout for VT.  They feel they've learned from that and developed as a team.  They also see an outside chance at getting to New Orleans.  Besides, VT is no stranger to ACC title game grudge matches, having revenged losses to Boston College two years in a row.  Clemson has been on a downslide the last few weeks, and has actually managed to hurt the ACC as a whole.  If they had won their last two games, this would have been a matchup of two top six teams, and the Orange Bowl would have been guaranteed a top five team for once.

However, the Orange Bowl can still get a heck of a matchup if West Virginia comes out on top of the Big East, and VT wins this game, and that old rivalry can be renewed once more.

Big Ten:  Michigan State vs. Wisconsin

There are two Big Ten games that I really enjoyed watching this year, enough to put in my top five games of the year perhaps.  One was Ohio State-Michigan.  This was the other.  It had a crazy enough ending to be regarded as legendary.  Can they repeat that legendary performance in Indianapolis?

Mike London - ACC Coach of the Year

Even though he's the coach of my team's rival, I still have to respect Mike London, this year's ACC Coach of the Year.  I first became aware of him during his final season at the University of Richmond (my wife's alma mater) shortly after he took that team to the FCS National Championship (something that my wife does rub in my face every once in a while when I start going on too long about "what-ifs" for VT to get to the title game).  I was bummed when he left, but was even more bummed when he went to UVA, of all places, because Mike London is the kind of guy that you just can't hate and want to see do well.

Just check out the piece ESPN did on him during College Gameday and you can see how hard it is to not like the guy.

Of course, he can win any game he wants to, except during the last weekend of November (unless the ACC moves the rivalry game to a different weekend).  So, congrats to him for making the VT/UVA game actually matter on the way to the ACC title game.  That's a decent two year turnaround after Al Groh basically ruined the program.

I like that the ACC rewards teams that show a drastic improvement on and off the field, instead of just rewarding one of the coaches that reaches the championship game (although some years that could also be the case).  There are a lot of good coaches in the ACC, but each of them faces different obstacles each year.  As such, they can receive different rewards.