2022 Regular Season Wrap-Up

Well, we've made it to the end of the regular season (aside from Army-Navy). So before we look forward to the bowl games to come, I thought I'd take a look back at the season we enjoyed and shared some highlights.

Playoff Thoughts

I was in agreement with the rankings. TCU deserved the 3 spot based on the nature of their close loss compared to Ohio State's more convincing loss.  I don't feel like this was a decision made "just" to avoid a semifinal Ohio State/Michigan rematch.

Interestingly, there were 4 previous teams that failed to win their conference and still made the Playoff (not counting 2018 Notre Dame, since they weren't in a conference to fail at winning):

• 2016 Ohio State (one loss was really close)
• 2017 Alabama (main competition was 2-loss Ohio State)
• 2020 Notre Dame (beat Clemson the first time that season)
• 2021 Georgia (started the season 12-0)

All four of my ( ) statements apply to TCU as well: the game was really close, the main competition was 2-loss Alabama, they beat K-State the first time, and they started the season 12-0.  

A few other tidbits:

• This is the first time TWO non-champions (TCU, Ohio State) will be in the same CFP.
• With the Big 12 getting a non-champ TCU into the Playoff, the PAC-12 is now the only P5 conference that hasn't done so.
• This is the first time since the 2013 season that the champion will not fall into "beat Bama or was Bama".

"Alternate Universe" NY6 Bowls

The last 2 seasons, I explored what the NY6 lineup would have been had this been a different year of the semifinal rotation (2014-20 Seasons; 2021 Season).

Had this been a year from now (Rose/Sugar Semis):

• Sugar: 1 Georgia vs 4 Ohio State
• Rose: 2 Michigan vs 3 TCU
• Orange: 7 Clemson vs 5 Alabama
• Other Bowls: Peach, Cotton, Fiesta
• Other Teams: 6 Tennessee, 8 Utah, 9 Kansas State, 10 USC, 11 Penn State, 16 Tulane

Had this been a year ago (Orange/Cotton Semis):

• Orange: 1 Georgia vs 4 Ohio State (Georgia getting geographic preference over Michigan)
• Cotton: 2 Michigan vs 3 TCU
• Rose: 8 Utah vs 11 Penn State
• Sugar: 5 Alabama vs 9 Kansas State
• Other Bowls: Peach, Fiesta
• Other Teams: 6 Tennessee, 7 Clemson, 10 USC, 16 Tulane

Like 2021, but unlike any other season, any of the three years of the semifinal rotation would give us the same 12 NY6 teams (but not THE Top 12, which is the only difference from last year). 

Prediction Results

Back in September, I proved predictions for how the season would go. This included P5 conference champs, the highest-ranked G5 champ, the NY6 and the CFP.

So how did I do?

Conference Champs

ACC Champ: Clemson over Pitt

• Right winner, wrong loser (UNC)

Big Ten Champ: Ohio State over Minnesota 

• Total miss (Michigan over Purdue)

Big 12 Champ: Oklahoma over Baylor

• Total miss (K-State over TCU)

PAC-12 Champ: USC over Utah

• Right teams, wrong result

SEC Champ: Georgia over Alabama

• Right winner, wrong loser (LSU)

Highest G5 Champ: UCF (beating Cincy). 

• Right conference, wrong team (Tulane over UCF and finishing #16)

The Sun Belt champ is also ranked, but not as high.

• Correct (#24 Troy)

CFP

Peach: 1 Georgia vs 4 Clemson

• 1 Georgia correct, but Clemson fell 3 spots shy of the #4 spot
• Actual Peach Bowl: #1 Georgia vs #4 Ohio State

Fiesta: 2 Ohio State vs 3 Alabama

• Ohio State made the CFP, but the wrong bowl and position (#4)
• Alabama just missed (#5)
• Actual Fiesta Bowl: #2 Michigan vs #3 TCU

Interestingly, a perfect 4-for-4 with the top of the AP Preseason poll. 

• Turned out to be 2-for-4

NY6

Rose: USC vs Michigan (full of tradition)

• Total miss (Utah vs Penn State)

Sugar: Texas A&M vs Oklahoma (renewal of an old conference rivalry, and preview of an upcoming one)

• Total miss - and an epic failure by A&M and OU (actual: Alabama vs Kansas State)

Orange: Notre Dame vs NC State (not a rematch, as these two don't play in the 2022 regular season; and also triggers the ACC's higher Orange Bowl payout)

• Total miss (Clemson vs Tennessee)

Cotton: Baylor vs UCF (deja vu from the Fiesta Bowl 9 years ago)

• Total miss (USC vs Tulane)

In short, I was wrong.  A LOT.  But with so many thrills along the way, I'm sure glad college football gave us some great surprises!