I've been toying around with this "lucky" idea for a while, and what better time to post it than St. Patty's Day!
Since the CFP/New Year's Six format started following the 2014 season, more emphasis was placed on merit rather than luck. In general, the highest-ranked teams go to the best bowls, with a few caveats.
This in contrast to the BCS era, when some teams were "lucky" to be invited to an upper-level bowl due to their size, brand appeal or even the mere presence of a cap on conference participation.
Even so, there has been a wee bit o' luck for some teams in the NY6 era. And it's those caveats that create the opportunity. More specifically, the rotation of the semi-finals leave different numbers of at-large teams available in any one season.
Below is a season-by-season look at the entire CFP/NY6 Era so far (2014 Season-Present). For each season, I've included "alternate" hypotheticals based on the other semifinal pairings, and the contract rules for the Rose, Sugar, and Orange Bowls (as well as ensuring an automatic spot for each P5 champ, and the highest-ranked G5 Champ). And based on the picture as a whole, we can see which teams got lucky...or maybe unlucky.
2014 Season (Rose/Sugar Semis)
Top 4: 1 Alabama, 2 Oregon, 3 Florida State, 4 Ohio State (would be CFP-bound in any semifinal rotation).
Orange Bowl: 12 Georgia Tech vs 7 Mississippi State
Other Automatics: 5 Baylor, 20 Boise State
At-Large Teams (4): 6 TCU, 8 Michigan State, 9 Ole Miss, 10 Arizona
"Alternate 1" (Orange/Cotton Semis):
Rose: 8 Michigan State vs 10 Arizona
Sugar: 7 Mississippi State vs 5 Baylor
Other Automatic: 20 Boise State
At-Large (3): 6 TCU, 9 Ole Miss, 11 Kansas State
"Alternate 2" (Peach/Fiesta Semis):
Rose: 8 Michigan State vs 10 Arizona
Sugar: 7 Mississippi State vs 5 Baylor
Orange: 12 Georgia Tech vs 9 Ole Miss
Cotton: 20 Boise State vs 6 TCU
2014 Conclusion: The only spot up to "chance" was between Georgia Tech and Kansas State. GT had a 2/3 chance to make it, despite being a spot lower in the rankings. K-State needed it to be an Orange Bowl semifinal year to get that NY6 spot. But it all worked out, in that NY6 team GT scored a great win, while K-State rallied to lose respectably in the Alamo Bowl against UCLA.
2015 Season (Orange/Cotton Semis)
Top 4: 1 Clemson, 2 Alabama, 3 Michigan State, 4 Oklahoma
Rose: 5 Iowa vs 6 Stanford
Sugar: 12 Ole Miss vs 16 Oklahoma State
Other Automatic: 18 Houston
At-Large (3): 7 Ohio State, 8 Notre Dame, 9 Florida State
"Alternate 1" (Rose/Sugar Semis)
Orange: 9 Florida State vs 5 Iowa
Other Automatic (2): 6 Stanford, 18 Houston
At-Large (4): 7 Ohio State, 8 Notre Dame, 10 North Carolina, 11 TCU
"Alternate 2" (Peach/Fiesta Semis)
Rose: 5 Iowa vs 6 Stanford
Sugar: 12 Ole Miss vs 16 Oklahoma State
Orange: 9 Florida State vs 7 Ohio State
Cotton: 18 Houston vs 8 Notre Dame
2015 Conclusion: This time, two pairs of teams were within a chance set. Lower-ranked Ole Miss and Oklahoma State had a 2/3 chance to make it due to the Sugar Bowl tie-in, while higher-ranked UNC and TCU were not able to get their 1/3 shot of the Sugar Bowl semifinal. It should be noted that the Big 12 sent its second-place team to the Sugar Bowl, rather than its 2nd-highest ranked team.
2016 Season (Peach/Fiesta Semis)
Top 4: 1 Alabama, 2 Clemson, 3 Ohio State, 4 Washington
Rose: 5 Penn State vs 9 USC
Sugar: 7 Oklahoma vs 14 Auburn
Orange: 11 Florida State vs 6 Michigan
Cotton: 8 Wisconsin vs 15 Western Michigan
"Alternate 1" (Rose/Sugar Semis)
Orange: 11 Florida State vs 6 Michigan
Other Automatic (3): 5 Penn State, 7 Oklahoma, 15 Western Michigan
At-Large (3): 8 Wisconsin, 9 USC, 10 Colorado
"Alternate 2" (Orange/Cotton)
Rose: 5 Penn State vs 9 USC
Sugar: 7 Oklahoma vs 14 Auburn
Other Automatic: 15 Western Michigan
At-Large (3): 6 Michigan, 8 Wisconsin, 10 Colorado
2016 Conclusion: This was a bit different, as there were two "open" spots for three teams. And each team had a 2/3 shot of making it into the NY6: 10 Colorado, 11 Florida State, and 14 Auburn. In this case, the highest-ranked team got the "bad luck" draw. I wonder if it carried on to the Buff's bowl performance (a 28-8 Alamo Bowl beating from Oklahoma State)?
2017 Season (Rose/Sugar Semis)
Top 4: 1 Clemson, 2 Georgia, 3 Oklahoma, 4 Alabama
Orange: 10 Miami vs 6 Wisconsin
Other Automatic (3): 5 Ohio State, 8 USC, 12 UCF
At-Large (3): 7 Auburn, 9 Penn State, 11 Washington
"Alternate 1" (Orange/Cotton Semis)
Rose: 5 Ohio State vs 8 USC
Sugar: 7 Auburn vs 15 TCU
Other Automatic: 12 UCF
At-Large (3): 6 Wisconsin, 9 Penn State, 10 Miami
"Alternate 2" (Peach/Fiesta Semis)
Rose: 5 Ohio State vs 8 USC
Sugar: 7 Auburn vs 15 TCU
Orange: 10 Miami vs 6 Wisconsin
Cotton: 12 UCF vs 9 Penn State
2017 Conclusion: Another case of one team having a 2/3 chance (in this case, TCU due to the conference tie-in). But this time, the team with a 1/3 chance (Washington) made it. The Big 12 Championship Game effectively gave the B12 a Playoff team at the expense of a 2nd NY6 team. It should also be noted that the real-life scenario was the only one of the 3 that gave us the Top 12 teams all in NY6 Bowls.
2018 Season (Orange/Cotton Semis)
Top 4: 1 Alabama, 2 Clemson, 3 Notre Dame, 4 Oklahoma
Rose: 6 Ohio State vs 9 Washington
Sugar: 5 Georgia vs 15 Texas
Other Automatic: 8 UCF
At-Large (3): 7 Michigan, 10 Florida, 11 LSU
"Alternate 1" (Rose/Sugar Semis)
Orange: 20 Syracuse vs 5 Georgia
Other Automatic (3): 6 Ohio State, 8 UCF, 9 Washington
At-Large (3): 7 Michigan, 10 Florida, 11 LSU
"Alternate 2" (Peach/Fiesta Semis)
Rose: 6 Ohio State vs 9 Washington
Sugar: 5 Georgia vs 15 Texas
Orange: 20 Syracuse vs 7 Michigan
Cotton: 8 UCF vs 10 Florida
2018 Conclusion: Like 2016, there were two "open" spots for three teams. That meant that LSU, Syracuse, and Texas each had a 2/3 shot of making it. I would say it all worked out for the best, as the lowest-ranked of these three (Syracuse) ended up on the "bad luck" end. But what worked so well was the fact that all three "made their own luck" beating their higher-ranked opponent in their bowl game (Syracuse over 16 West VA; LSU over UCF; and Texas over Georgia).
2019 Season (Peach/Fiesta Semis)
Top 4: 1 LSU, 2 Ohio State, 3 Clemson, 4 Oklahoma
Rose: 6 Oregon vs 8 Wisconsin
Sugar: 5 Georgia vs 7 Baylor
Orange: 24 Virginia vs 9 Florida
Cotton: 10 Penn State vs 17 Memphis
"Alternate 1" (Rose/Sugar Semis)
Orange: 24 Virginia vs 5 Georgia
Other Automatic (2): 6 Oregon, 17 Memphis
At-Large (4): 7 Baylor, 8 Wisconsin, 9 Florida, 10 Penn State
"Alternate 2" (Orange/Cotton Semis)
Rose: 6 Oregon vs 8 Wisconsin
Sugar: 5 Georgia vs 7 Baylor
Other Automatic: 17 Memphis
At-Large (3): 9 Florida, 10 Penn State, 11 Utah
2019 Conclusion: Similar to 2014, a lower-ranked ACC team's 2/3 chance was upheld over an 11th ranked contender with a 1/3 chance to make the NY6. Like that first year, the 11th ranked team (in 2019, Utah) went on to lose in the Alamo Bowl. But unlike then, the ACC team (in this case, UVA) did not emerge victorious over the SEC team in the Orange Bowl.
2020 Season (Rose/Sugar Semis)
Top 4: 1 Alabama, 2 Clemson, 3 Ohio State, 4 Notre Dame
Orange: 13 UNC vs 5 Texas A&M
Other Automatic (3): 6 Oklahoma, 8 Cincinnati, 25 Oregon
At-Large (3): 7 Florida, 9 Georgia, 10 Iowa State
"Alternate 1" (Orange/Cotton Semis)
Rose: 11 Indiana vs 25 Oregon
Sugar: 5 Texas A&M vs 6 Oklahoma
Other Automatic: 8 Cincinnati
At-Large (3): 7 Florida, 9 Georgia, 10 Iowa State
"Alternate 2" (Peach/Fiesta Semis)
Rose: 11 Indiana vs 25 Oregon
Sugar: 5 Texas A&M vs 6 Oklahoma
Orange: 13 UNC vs 7 Florida
Cotton: 8 Cincinnati vs 9 Georgia
2020 Conclusion: This was another "2 spots for 3 teams" year. Iowa State, Indiana, and UNC each had a 2/3 chance to make the NY6. And in this case, the team with the fewest losses (Indiana) got the "bad luck" draw. The only one of the three to win their bowl game (Iowa State) managed to avoid the Peach/Fiesta year that would have produced the most contract-based - rather than merit-based - NY6 bids.
OVERALL SUMMARY (Including bowl result)
UNLUCKIEST (Teams who MISSED the NY6, who had a 2/3 chance to make it)
2016 Colorado (L)
2017 TCU (W)
2018 Syracuse (W)
2020 Indiana (L)
Bowl Result: 2-2
UNLUCKY (Teams who MISSED the NY6, who had a 1/3 chance to make it)
2014 Kansas State (L)
2015 TCU (W) & UNC (L)
2019 Utah (L)
Bowl Result: 1-3
LUCKY (Teams that MADE the NY6, who had a 2/3 chance to make it):
2014 Georgia Tech (W)
2015 Ole Miss & Oklahoma State (vs each other; Ole Miss won)
2016 Florida State (W) & Auburn (L)
2018 LSU (W) & Texas (W)
2019 Virginia (L)
2020 Iowa State (W) & UNC (L)
Bowl Result: 6-4 (5-3 not including 2015)
LUCKIEST (Teams that MADE the NY6, who had a 1/3 chance to make it):
2017 Washington (L)
Bowl Result: 0-1
Observations:
- The SEC, so far, has always been in the "Lucky" group whenever one of its teams has been in question.
- The PAC-12 is "unlucky" more than it is "lucky." But when they hit, they hit big (2017)!
- The Big Ten has only had to "roll the dice" once: in the bizarre 2020 season. Given the result, they might want to just stay away from the dice altogether!
- The ACC and Big 12 are the most balanced, with multiple appearances on both sides of luck.
- TCU is the only team to be "Unlucky" (or worse) more than once.
- UNC is the only team to be on both sides of luck.
- In terms of bowl performance, the best places to be are either "Lucky" (winning record), or "Unluckiest" (even record).
CONCLUSION
That's a lot of scenarios! But in each season, even with a straightforward merit-based selection process, there's an element of luck. What's really important is what we do with the opportunities we're given. Just as these teams have proven - some better than others.
And in a very ironic closing, consider this. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish has NOT had to rely on "luck" at all so far in the NY6 era! They've either been clearly in, or clearly out!
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