Here is the link to my pre-season predictions. Without getting into the commentary, I'll go down the list and hold myself accountable for how they compare to 2021's reality.
ACC
Prediction: Clemson over UNC
Reality: Pittsburgh over Wake Forest
The ACC really captured the upside-down nature of the season. With so many upsets across the board, we have a conference where the 6-time reining champs took a step back to 9-3, while the Coastal pick went from preseason Top 10 to 6-6 (shame on me for thinking UNC would have 10 wins).
Big 12
Prediction: Oklahoma over Oklahoma State
Reality: Baylor over Oklahoma State
I was right not to buy into the Iowa State hype, and I had the loser of the Championship Game correct. The Bedlam game finally erased some Cowboy demons, though the joy was short-lived with an epic comeback a short way away!
Big Ten
Prediction: Ohio State over Wisconsin
Reality: Michigan over Iowa
2021 was a year of overcoming hurdles! Bedlam...The Game. But unlike the Big 12, this conference's demon slayer kept the momentum going into the conference title game, where Michigan hammered Iowa and secured a CFP slot.
PAC-12
Prediction: USC over Oregon
Reality: Utah over Oregon
Another case of "right loser, wrong winner." USC crumbled early, saw their Head Coach fired by the end of September, and limped to a 4-8 mark including losses to Notre Dame and all 3 of the other California PAC-12 schools. Oregon, while formidable, had a real Utah problem, as the Ducks lost twice to the Utes in dominant fashion (just 2 weeks apart).
SEC
Prediction: Alabama over Georgia
Reality: Alabama over Georgia
I got this one right on the nose, though it didn't seem like the trend heading into Championship Weekend. Georgia has such a mental block to Alabama, that they couldn't even beat the Tide as a FAVORED team in a year that Michigan and Oklahoma State were able to overcome their own losing streaks.
American
Prediction: SMU over Cincy
Reality: Cincy over Houston
I decided to go against the narrative, and predict more of a humbling season for Cincy. Instead, I'm the humbled one, but very happily humbled to see Cincy make it all the way into the CFP!
Conference USA
Prediction: Florida Atlantic over UAB
Reality: UTSA over Western Kentucky
MAC
Prediction: Ball State over Kent State
Reality: Northern Illinois over Kent State
Mountain West
Prediction: Boise State over San Jose State
Reality: Utah State over San Diego State
Sun Belt
Prediction: Louisiana over Coastal Carolina
Reality: Louisiana over Appalachian State
Of these four conferences, I had one winner right (UL), one loser right (Kent State), and 6 misses altogether. It's a good reminder of how fluid the G5 conference are from year-to-year, as coach or player transitions can impact these programs HARD!
CFP and NY6 Predictions
I correctly predicted Alabama in the Playoff, but whiffed on the other 3 (I went the "boring" route of Ohio State, Clemson, Oklahoma). And of the 3 misses, only Ohio State made a NY6 Bowl at all!
I correctly placed Oklahoma State and Notre Dame into NY6 bowls, though neither into the Fiesta Bowl. I under-shot on Georgia, predicting the Bulldogs for the Sugar Bowl when they did make the CFP despite a lone loss (to Alabama).
That means that 7 teams are NY-6 bound that I didn't predict (Michigan, Cincy, Baylor, Ole Miss, Michigan State, Utah, and Pitt). And the G5 team I predicted to make the NY6 (Boise State), finished a paltry 7-5.
Luck of the Rotation
Here's another post I did during the off-season, where I showcased which teams were "lucky" to make NY6 bowls based on the semifinal rotation of each particular season (2014-2020).
As it turns out, 2021 is the first year where all three possible semifinal pairings would produce the same exact set of teams. And better yet, the Top 12 teams (2017 also gave us the Top 12 teams)!
Hypothetical Rose/Sugar semifinals
Sugar: 1 Alabama vs 4 Cincy
Rose: 2 Georgia vs 3 Michigan
Orange: 12 Pitt vs 5 Notre Dame
Other "At Large": 6 Ohio State, 7 Baylor, 8 Ole Miss, 9 Oklahoma State, 10 Michigan State, 11 Utah
Hypothetical Peach/Fiesta semifinals
Peach: 1 Alabama vs 4 Cincy
Fiesta: 2 Georgia vs 3 Michigan
Orange: 12 Pitt vs 5 Notre Dame
Rose: 6 Ohio State vs 11 Utah
Sugar: 7 Baylor vs 8 Ole Miss
Cotton: 9 Oklahoma State vs 10 Michigan State
Closing Thoughts
Oh, how fast 3 and a half months can go by! As annoying/"boring" as it is to see some teams do the same old thing over again, it's refreshing to see so many expectations shattered. The unpredictability is one of the best things about the sport, and I hope it continues!
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