Sunday, November 3, 2024

2024 Week 10 wrap up

All of the conferences took care of their multiple-undefeated problems.  In fact, the SEC took all of their undefeated teams off the board.

The biggest issue I'm seeing this week is that there are a lot of teams that could be eliminated based on the results of certain teams -- who all seem to be on a bye next week.

But we are able to bring back the category of "controls destiny".  There are conferences where it is clear to see a path for certain teams at the top, where they will reach the championship game if they win out.

Remember, everything here is conference record only.

ACC
Controls destiny:
Miami (5-0)
   W:  VT, Cal, Louisville, FSU, Duke
SMU (5-0)
   W:  FSU, Louisville, Stanford, Duke, Pitt

Needs help:
Clemson (5-1)
   W:  NC State, Stanford, FSU, Wake Forest, uva
   L:  Louisville

Pitt (3-1)
   W:  UNC, Cal, Syracuse
   L:  SMU

Louisville (4-2)
   W:  GT, uva, BC, Clemson
   L:  SMU, Miami

Syracuse (3-2)
   W:  GT, NC State, VT
   L:  Stanford, Pitt

Virginia Tech (3-2)
   W:  Stanford, BC, GT
   L:  Miami, Syracuse

GT (3-3)
   W:  FSU, Duke, UNC
   L:  Syracuse, Louisville, VT

Duke (2-3)
   W:  UNC, FSU
   L:  GT, SMU, Miami

Wake Forest (2-2)
   W:  NC State, Stanford
   L:  uva, Clemson
uva (2-3)
   W:  WF, BC
   L:  Louisville, Clemson, UNC

NC State (2-3)
   W:  Cal, Stanford
   L:  Clemson, WF, Syracuse
UNC (2-3)
   W:  uva, FSU
   L:  Duke, Pitt, GT
BC (1-3)
   W:  FSU
   L:  uva, VT, Louisville


If Miami or Clemson both win (SMU is on a bye), then all 3-loss teams are eliminated from contention from the #1 seed.  If both win, all of those teams are fully eliminated.

Out of contention:
FSU (1-7)
Stanford (1-5)
Cal (0-4)

The ACC does not have to worry about more than 2 undefeated teams anymore, thanks to the Clemson loss.

VT's chances of reaching the ACCCG took a massive blow with their loss, but they are not quite mathematically eliminated from contention yet.  Getting into the range of the top 2 would require at least one Pitt loss, a Syracuse loss, and probably a Louisville loss.  Then, they still need either SMU to lose at least two games, or Miami to lose out, or possibly both.  (This is not me as a fan holding out hope, I'm just working out the possible scenarios to see if there even are enough games left for that to happen.)

SEC
Texas A&M (5-1)
   W:  Florida, Arkansas, Missouri, Miss St, LSU
   L:  South Carolina

Georgia (5-1)
   W:  Kentucky, Auburn, Miss St, Texas, Florida
   L:  Alabama

Tennessee (4-1)
   W:  Oklahoma, Florida, Alabama, Kentucky
   L:  Arkansas

LSU (3-1)
   W:  SC, Ole Miss, Arkansas
   L:  Texas A&M

Texas (3-1)
   W:  Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt
   L:  Georgia

Arkansas (3-3)
   W:  Auburn, Tennessee, Mississippi State
   L:  Texas A&M, LSU, Ole Miss

South Carolina (3-3)
   W:  Kentucky, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
   L:  LSU, Ole Miss, Alabama

Alabama (3-2)
   W:  Georgia, SC, Missouri
   L:  Vandy, Tennessee

Vanderbilt (3-2)
   W:  Alabama, Kentucky, Auburn
   L:  Missouri, Texas
Ole Miss (3-2)
   W:  SC, Oklahoma, Arkansas
   L:  Kentucky, LSU
Missouri (2-2)
   W:  Vandy, Auburn
   L:  Texas A&M, Alabama

Florida (2-3)
   W:  Mississippi State, Kentucky
   L:  Texas A&M, Tennessee, Georgia

Texas A&M is on a bye next week, so it really narrows the chance of teams getting eliminated next week.

A Georgia win will take any 3-loss team out of contention for the #1 seed.
Any 3-loss team can be taken out of contention with a loss OR Tennessee win.

Out of contention:
Oklahoma (1-4)
Auburn (1-5)
Kentucky (1-6)
Mississippi State (0-5)

Big Ten
Controls destiny:
Oregon (6-0)
   W:  UCLA, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan
Indiana (6-0)
   W:  UCLA, Maryland, Northwestern, Nebraska, Washington, Michigan State
Ohio State (4-1)
   W:  Michigan State, Iowa, Nebraska, Penn State
   L:  Oregon

If any of these teams win out, they will secure a spot in the Big Ten championship game.  Ohio State and Indiana face off later this month.

Needs help:
Penn State (4-1)
   W:  Illinois, UCLA, USC, Wisconsin
   L:  Ohio State

Iowa (4-2)
   W:  Minnesota, Washington, Northwestern, Wisconsin
   L:  Ohio State, Michigan State
Minnesota (4-2)
   W:  USC, UCLA, Maryland, Illinois
   L:  Iowa, Michigan
Illinois (3-3)
   W:  Nebraska, Purdue, Michigan
   L:  Penn State, Oregon, Minnesota

Wisconsin (3-3)
   W:  Purdue, Rutgers, Northwestern
   L:  USC, Penn State, Iowa

Washington (3-3)
   W:  Northwestern, Michigan, USC
   L:  Rutgers, Iowa, Indiana

Michigan (3-3)
   W:  USC, Minnesota, Michigan State
   L:  Washington, Illinois, Oregon

Any of the 3-loss teams will be eliminated with a loss OR wins by Oregon and Indiana.
The 2-loss teams will be eliminated with a loss AND wins by Oregon and Indiana.

Out of contention:
Nebraska (2-4)
Michigan State (2-4)
USC (2-5)
Northwestern (2-4)
Maryland (1-4)
Rutgers (1-4)
UCLA (2-4)
Purdue (0-5)

Big 12
BYU (5-0)
   W:  Kansas State, Baylor, Arizona, Oklahoma State, UCF
Iowa State (4-1)
   W:  Houston, Baylor, WVU, UCF
   L:  Texas Tech

Colorado (4-1)
   W:  Baylor, UCF, Arizona, Cincinnati
   L:  Kansas State

Kansas State (4-2)
   W:  Oklahoma State, Colorado, WVU, Kansas
   L:  BYU, Houston
Texas Tech (4-2)
   W:  Arizona State, Cincinnati, Arizona, Iowa State
   L:  Baylor, TCU

Cincinnati (3-2)
   W:  Houston, UCF, Arizona State
   L:  Texas Tech, Colorado

WVU (3-2)
   W:  Kansas, Oklahoma State, Arizona
   L:  Iowa State, Kansas State

Arizona State (3-2)
   W:  Kansas, Utah, Oklahoma State
   L:  Texas Tech, Cincy
Houston (3-3)
   W:  TCU, Utah, Kansas State
   L:  Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas

Baylor (3-3)
   W:  Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU
   L:  Colorado, BYU, Iowa State
TCU (3-3)
   W:  Kansas, Utah, Texas Tech
   L:  UCF, Houston, Baylor

Out of contention for #1 seed:
UCF (2-4)
   W:  TCU, Arizona
   L:  Colorado, Cincy, Iowa State, BYU

Utah (1-4)
   W:  Oklahoma State
   L:  Arizona, Arizona State, TCU, Houston

Kansas (1-4)
   W:  Houston
   L:  WVU, TCU, Arizona State, Kansas State

Since Colorado and Texas Tech play next week, we know that a second team is guaranteed to get a fifth conference win, meaning that any team with 5 or more losses is automatically eliminated from contention.

Out of contention:
Arizona (1-5)
Oklahoma State (0-6)

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