12 team playoff "What If": The early BCS era

In the final part of our "What If" exercise, we take a look at the early part of the BCS and apply the proposed 12 team playoff structure to those seasons.

Again, we will just be looking at seeding and early matchups, as the landscape of college football was vastly different at the time.

The main differences in the "early BCS" era were only have four main bowls, fewer conference championship games, smaller conferences, and only ranking the top 15 teams in the BCS (unless the lowest AQ team was further down).

All projections will be based off of final BCS rankings.  Numbers used within the tables refer to seeding, and not necessarily rankings.  Some of the teams we refer to as conference champions are officially called "co-champions", but we will be simplifying the process based on head-to-head tiebreakers or historical BCS representation.

Again, the champions playing in the first round are indicated with italics.

Since there were only 4 BCS games in these years, there are at least four teams in each hypothetical 12-team bracket that wouldn't have been in a BCS game.  They will be listed as "Non-BCS teams" below.  "BCS teams dropped" refers to any team that actually played in a BCS bowl that wouldn't have made the 12-team playoff.

1998

Top 4	First Round
#1 Tennessee (SEC)	#9 Wisconsin (Big Ten) @ #8 Florida (SEC)
#2 Florida State (ACC)	#10 Tulane (CUSA) @ #7 Arizona (Pac-10)
#3 Ohio State (Big Ten)	#11 Nebraska (Big 12) @ #6 Texas A&M (Big 12)
#4 UCLA (Pac-10)	#12 uva (ACC) @ #5 Kansas State (Big 12)

Non-BCS teams:

-Kansas State, Arizona, Tulane, Nebraska, uva

BCS team dropped:
-#18 Syracuse (Big East champ)

1999

Top 4	First Round
#1 Florida State (ACC)	#9 Michigan State (Big Ten) @ #8 Michigan (Big Ten)
#2 Virginia Tech (Big East)	#10 Florida (SEC) @ #7 Wisconsin (Big Ten)
#3 Nebraska (Big 12)	#11 Penn State (Big Ten) @ #6 Kansas State (Big 12)
#4 Alabama (SEC)	#12 Marshall (MAC) @ #5 Tennessee (SEC)

Non-BCS teams:

-Kansas State, Michigan State, Florida, Penn State, Marshall

BCS team dropped:
-Stanford (Pac-10 champ, unranked in BCS)

2000

Top 4	First Round
#1 Oklahoma (Big 12)	#9 Kansas State (Big 12) @ #8 Nebraska (Big 12)
#2 Florida State (ACC)	#10 Oregon (Pac-10) @ #7 Florida (SEC)
#3 Miami (Big East)	#11 Notre Dame @ #6 Oregon State (Pac-10)
#4 Washington (Pac-10)	#12 TCU (WAC) @ #5 Virginia Tech (Big East)

Non-BCS teams:

-Virginia Tech, Nebraska, Kansas State, Oregon, TCU

BCS team dropped:
-Purdue (Big Ten champ, unranked in BCS)

2001

Top 4	First Round
#1 Miami (Big East)	#9 Stanford (Pac-10) @ #8 Texas (Big 12)
#2 Colorado (Big 12)	#10 Maryland (ACC) @ #7 Tennessee (SEC)
#3 Oregon (Pac-10)	#11 Oklahoma (Big 12) @ #6 Florida (SEC)
#4 Illinois (Big Ten)	#12 LSU (SEC) @ #5 Nebraska (Big 12)

Non-BCS teams:

-Tennessee, Texas, Stanford, Oklahoma

2002

Top 4	First Round
#1 Miami (Big East)	#9 Notre Dame @ #8 Kansas State (Big 12)
#2 Ohio State (Big Ten)	#10 Texas (Big 12) @ #7 Oklahoma (Big 12)
#3 Georgia (SEC)	#11 Michigan (Big Ten) @ #6 USC (Pac-10)
#4 Washington State (Pac-10)	#12 Florida State (ACC) @ #5 Iowa (Big Ten)

USC and Washington State both finished the regular season 10-2 overall, 7-1 in conference.  Both teams were declared Pac-10 co-champions.  Washington State beat USC head-to-head.  Yet for some reason, all of the rankings (BCS, AP, and Coaches Poll) had USC ranked higher than Washington State.  Seeing how Washington State was given the Rose Bowl berth, we have determined that they would be the 4th seed, while USC would be the 6th seed.

Non-BCS teams:

-Kansas State, Notre Dame, Texas, Michigan

2003

Top 4	First Round
#1 LSU (SEC)	#9 Miami (Big East) @ #8 Tennessee (SEC)
#2 USC (Pac-10)	#10 Kansas State (Big 12) @ #7 Texas (Big 12)
#3 Michigan (Big Ten)	#11 Miami of Ohio (MAC) @ #6 Ohio State (Big Ten)
#4 Florida State (ACC)	#12 Georgia (SEC) @ #5 Oklahoma (Big 12)

Seven conference champions appear in this tournament, as Miami (OH) won their conference but reached the playoffs by virtue of being ranked high enough.  The only way for the two Miamis to face off would have been in the championship game.

Non-BCS teams:

-Texas, Tennessee, Miami (OH), Georgia

2004

Top 4	First Round
#1 USC (Pac-10)	#9 Boise State (WAC) @ #8 Virginia Tech (ACC)
#2 Oklahoma (Big 12)	#10 Louisville (CUSA) @ #7 Georgia (SEC)
#3 Auburn (SEC)	#11 LSU (SEC) @ #6 California (Pac-10)
#4 Utah (MW)	#12 Michigan (Big Ten) @ #5 Texas (Big 12)

A whopping eight conference champions in this tournament, although the last one could have some controversy to it.  Both Iowa and Michigan were declared co-champs of the Big Ten after finishing the season 9-2, 7-1 in conference.  While Michigan beat Iowa head-to-head, Iowa was ranked #12 and Michigan was ranked #13.  Since Michigan was chosen as the Big Ten representative for the Rose Bowl, we have opted to include them here as the 12th seed.

Non-BCS teams:

-California, Georgia, Boise State, Louisville, LSU

BCS team dropped:

-#21 Pitt (Big East champ)

2005

Top 4	First Round
#1 USC (Pac-10)	#9 Auburn (SEC) @ #8 Miami (ACC)
#2 Texas (Big 12)	#10 Virginia Tech (ACC) @ #7 Notre Dame
#3 Penn State (Big Ten)	#11 West Virginia (Big East) @ #6 Oregon (Pac-10)
#4 Georgia (SEC)	#12 TCU (MW) @ #5 Ohio State (Big Ten)

This would have been a very interesting year, as we see a conference send two teams to the playoffs, and neither one were the conference champ.  Florida State actually beat both Miami (in week 1) and Virginia Tech (in the inaugural ACC championship game), but their 8-4 overall record dropped them below the threshold of being one of the six highest ranked conference champions.

Non-BCS teams:

-Oregon, Miami, Auburn, Virginia Tech, TCU

BCS team dropped:

-#22 Florida State (ACC champ)

The other parts of this series:
Late BCS era (2006-2013)
CFP era (2014-2021)