They finally took the vote and made it official to expand the CFP to 12 teams. By the end of the 2026 season, we'll be seeing a full tournament of playoff games. Let's play "what if" and see how the 12 team playoff would have looked since 2014.
First, a summary of what the CFP actually put in place.
There are still a few details to be worked out and/or clarified. The main one being the seeding of the 5th and 6th conference champs. Would they automatically get the 5 and 6 seeds or will they fall in ranking order? For example, Boise State was the highest ranked G5 champ at #20. Would they be the 6 or 12 seed? Does #3 Georgia in 2021 fall to the 5 or 7 seed as the highest ranked non-champ?Here is specifically what the CFP Board of Managers approved today: pic.twitter.com/ZDl9uSaE6W
— Nicole Auerbach (@NicoleAuerbach) September 2, 2022
For the purpose of this exercise, we will be making two assumptions:
-The eight teams not granted a first round bye will be seeded in ranking order, regardless of their status as conference champions. (So to answer the two example questions above, 2014 Boise State would be the 12 seed and 2021 Georgia would be the 5 seed.)
-The eight teams not granted a first round bye will be seeded in ranking order, regardless of their status as conference champions. (So to answer the two example questions above, 2014 Boise State would be the 12 seed and 2021 Georgia would be the 5 seed.)
-The semifinals will remain the same two bowls as originally scheduled, with the rest of the NY6 being the quarterfinals. We will be trying to apply item #8 of the above list as logically as we can. (Although if you've seen some of our previous attempts at predicting the at-large NY6 bowls, our logic frequently runs counted to what the committee actually decides.)
One thing to keep in mind is that this setup basically just brings all of the New Year's Six bowls into the playoff format every single year. The CFP committee was trying to protect and boost those bowls. In most years, at least 10 teams that would make the 12-team tournament were already placed in New Year's Six bowls. The differences come into play with the specific bowl contracts, where the bowls had to select replacement teams from the same conference.
The numbers mentioned in the tables below are the seeds for the hypothetical tournament, and not the actual rankings. Conference champions playing in first round games are in italics.
2014 - Semifinals: Rose and Sugar
| Top 4 | Quarterfinal | First Round |
| #1 Alabama | Cotton | #9 Ole Miss @ #8 Michigan State |
| #2 Oregon | Fiesta | #10 Arizona @ #7 Mississippi State |
| #3 FSU | Orange | #11 Kansas State @ #6 TCU |
| #4 Ohio State | Peach | #12 Boise State @ #5 Baylor |
In reality, #12 Georgia Tech was in the NY6 instead of #11 Kansas State, due to being the ACC replacement team for the Orange Bowl after conference champ FSU was selected for the CFP.
2015 - Semifinals: Cotton and Orange
| Top 4 | Quarterfinal | First Round |
| #1 Clemson | Peach | #9 Florida State @ #8 Notre Dame |
| #2 Alabama | Sugar | #10 UNC @ #7 Ohio State |
| #3 Michigan State | Rose | #11 TCU @ #6 Stanford |
| #4 Oklahoma | Fiesta | #12 Houston @ #5 Iowa |
While the FSU/ND game would not have been a rematch, the projected Peach Bowl would have been as Clemson had defeated both teams during the regular season.
In reality, #12 Ole Miss and #16 Oklahoma State were selected as the SEC and Big 12 replacements for the Sugar Bowl, thus pushing #10 UNC and #11 TCU out of the NY6.
2016 - Semifinals: Peach and Fiesta
| Top 4 | Quarterfinal | First Round |
| #1 Alabama | Sugar | #9 USC @ #8 Wisconsin |
| #2 Clemson | Orange | #10 Colorado @ #7 Oklahoma |
| #3 Washington | Rose | #11 Florida State @ #6 Michigan |
| #4 Penn State | Cotton | #12 Western Michigan @ #5 Ohio State |
Note that Ohio State bumps down from #3 in the rankings to the #5 seed, due to not being a conference champ.
In reality, #14 Auburn selected as the SEC replacement for the Sugar Bowl, keeping #10 Colorado out of the NY6. Also, the FSU/Michigan matchup really happened in the Orange Bowl (a one point victory for FSU).
2017 - Semifinals: Rose and Sugar
| Top 4 | Quarterfinal | First Round |
| #1 Clemson | Orange | #9 Penn State @ #8 USC |
| #2 Oklahoma | Cotton | #10 Miami @ #7 Auburn |
| #3 Georgia | Peach | #11 Washington @ #6 Wisconsin |
| #4 Ohio State | Fiesta | #12 UCF @ #5 Alabama |
So, UCF wanted 'Bama after this season, and with these rules, they would have gotten them. This is also the first season where the real NY6 teams were the same as the hypothetical 12-team playoff.
2018 - Semifinals: Cotton and Orange
| Top 4 | Quarterfinal | First Round |
| #1 Alabama | Sugar | #9 Washington @ #8 UCF |
| #2 Clemson | Peach | #10 Florida @ #7 Michigan |
| #3 Oklahoma | Fiesta | #11 LSU @ #6 Georgia |
| #4 Ohio State | Rose | #12 Penn State @ #5 Notre Dame |
Note that Notre Dame drops from #3 in the rankings to the #5 seed, due to their independent status preventing them from being conference champions. Also, LSU at Georgia would be a rematch of a midseason game. LSU won that game at home.
In reality, #15 Texas was chosen as the Big 12 replacement for the Sugar Bowl, keeping #12 Penn State out of the NY6. Once again, Michigan is involved in a match-up that happens in the hypothetical and actual worlds, as they lost to Florida in the Peach Bowl.
2019 - Semifinals: Peach and Fiesta
| Top 4 | Quarterfinal | First Round |
| #1 LSU | Sugar | #9 Florida @ #8 Wisconsin |
| #2 Ohio State | Rose | #10 Penn State @ #7 Baylor |
| #3 Clemson | Orange | #11 Utah @ #6 Oregon |
| #4 Oklahoma | Cotton | #12 Memphis @ #5 Georgia |
The Utah at Oregon game would be a rematch of the Pac-12 championship won by Oregon.
In reality, #24 uva was selected as the ACC replacement in the Orange Bowl, pushing #11 Utah out of the NY6 range.
2020 - Semifinals: Rose and Sugar *COVID*
| Top 4 | Quarterfinal | First Round |
| #1 Alabama | Cotton | #9 Georgia @ #8 Cincinnati |
| #2 Clemson | Orange | #10 Iowa State @ #7 Florida |
| #3 Ohio State | Peach | #11 Indiana @ #6 Texas A&M |
| #4 Oklahoma | Fiesta | #12 Coastal Carolina @ #5 Notre Dame |
As we all know, 2020 was full of unusual circumstances, and is hard to compare to other seasons. Although, it does give us the interesting scenario of having two Group of 5 teams in the tournament, with no Pac-12 representation.
In reality, #25 Oregon and #13 UNC were in the NY6 as the Pac-12 champ (bounced to the Fiesta Bowl) and the ACC replacement for the Orange Bowl, respectively. That kept #11 Indiana and #12 Coastal Carolina out of the mix.
2021 - Semifinals: Cotton and Orange
| Top 4 | Quarterfinal | First Round |
| #1 Alabama | Sugar | #9 Oklahoma State @ #8 Ole Miss |
| #2 Michigan | Rose | #10 Michigan State @ #7 Ohio State |
| #3 Cincinnati | Peach | #11 Utah @ #6 Notre Dame |
| #4 Baylor | Fiesta | #12 Pitt @ #5 Georgia |
With this seeding, we would be guaranteed two Big Ten rematches. First, Michigan State had already travelled to Ohio State in late November and lost. Meanwhile, Michigan lost to MSU but beat OSU in the regular season.
In reality, we had the same teams ranked in the top 12, but the order was much different. To find the fourth conference champion, we have to skip over #3 Georgia, #5 Notre Dame (independent), and #6 Ohio State before getting to Baylor ranked at #7.
2022 - Semifinals: Peach and Fiesta
| Top 4 | Quarterfinal | First Round |
| #1 Georgia | Sugar | #9 Kansas State @ #8 Tennessee |
| #2 Michigan | Rose | #10 USC @ #7 Alabama |
| #3 Clemson | Orange | #11 Penn State @ #6 Ohio State |
| #4 Utah | Cotton | #12 Tulane @ #5 TCU |
This format still allow for the same 12 teams in the New Year's Six. Due to the uneven match-ups in the conference title games and a couple of upsets, the four teams getting first round byes are actually ranked #1, #2, #7, and #8.
The only guaranteed rematch comes from the Big Ten, where OSU had previously beaten PSU.
2023 - Semifinals: Rose and Sugar
| Top 4 | Quarterfinal | First Round |
| #1 Michigan | Peach | #9 Missouri @ #8 Oregon |
| #2 Washington | Fiesta | #10 Penn State @ #7 Ohio State |
| #3 Texas | Cotton | #11 Ole Miss @ #6 Georgia |
| #4 Alabama | Orange | #12 Liberty @ #5 FSU |
Two guaranteed rematches - OSU/PSU (again), and Ole Miss/Georgia. The projected home teams won the previous matchups.
That's where we stand after 10 years of the CFP. Of course, there's always the chance that the committee would rank teams in a different order knowing the potential playoff matchups. (Even though they deny any sort of seed adjusting.)
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