While it's been difficult to apply the structure of the CFP/NY6 to the BCS era, it might be a little easier to determine the potential 12 team playoff lineups of those years. Since the structure calls for the six highest ranked conference champions without any stipulations, we can just pick conference champs from that era and not worry about how to classify the Big East.
Unlike the CFP era "What If" exercise, we will only be looking at seeding and early matchups, and not assigning the quarterfinal matchups to bowl games.
We're going with the "late BCS" era, which we count as starting with the 2006 season. That was the first year with the fifth BCS game, and also when the regular season was upgraded to 12 games.
All projections will be based off of final BCS rankings. Numbers used within the tables refer to seeding, and not necessarily rankings. Some of the teams we refer to as conference champions are officially called "co-champions", but we will be simplifying the process based on head-to-head tiebreakers or historical BCS representation.
Again, the champions playing in the first round are indicated with italics.
Since there were only 5 BCS games in these years, there are at least two teams in each hypothetical 12-team bracket that wouldn't have been in a BCS game. They will be listed as "Non-BCS teams" below. "BCS teams dropped" refers to any team that actually played in a BCS bowl that wouldn't have made the 12-team playoff.
2006
| Top 4 | First Round |
| #1 Ohio State (Big Ten) | #9 Auburn (SEC) @ #8 Boise State (WAC) |
| #2 Florida (SEC) | #10 Oklahoma (Big 12) @ #7 Wisconsin (Big Ten) |
| #3 USC (Pac-10) | #11 Notre Dame @ #6 LSU (SEC) |
| #4 Louisville (Big East) | #12 Arkansas (SEC) @ #5 Michigan (Big Ten) |
BCS team dropped:
-#14 Wake Forest (ACC champ)
-LSU defeated Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl
| Top 4 | First Round |
| #1 Ohio State (Big Ten) | #9 West Virginia (Big East) @ #8 Kansas (Big 12) |
| #2 LSU (SEC) | #10 Hawaii (WAC) @ #7 USC (Pac-10) |
| #3 Virginia Tech (ACC) | #11 Arizona State (Pac-10) @ #6 Missouri (Big 12) |
| #4 Oklahoma (Big 12) | #12 Florida (SEC) @ #5 Georgia (SEC) |
This playoff would have included 7 conference champions. USC and WVU would have gotten the "automatic" top 6 bids, but Hawaii was ranked high enough to be included as an "at-large" team.
BCS team dropped:
-#13 Illinois (Big Ten Rose Bowl replacement)
| Top 4 | First Round |
| #1 Oklahoma (Big 12) | #9 Boise State (WAC) @ #8 Penn State (Big Ten) |
| #2 Florida (SEC) | #10 Ohio State (Big Ten) @ #7 Texas Tech (Big 12) |
| #3 USC (Pac-10) | #11 TCU (Mountain West) @ #6 Alabama (SEC) |
| #4 Utah (Mountain West) | #12 Cincinnati (Big East) @ #5 Texas (Big 12) |
Another tournament with 7 conference champs as Cincinnati just barely slid into the top 12. This also includes 3 non-AQ teams, although two of them would soon join AQ/P5 conferences and one of the AQ teams (Cincinnati) would fall down into a G5 conference (until they moved to the Big 12 in 2023).
BCS team dropped:
-#19 Virginia Tech (ACC champ)
| Top 4 | First Round |
| #1 Alabama (SEC) | #9 Georgia Tech (ACC) @ #8 Ohio State (Big Ten) |
| #2 Texas (Big 12) | #10 Iowa (Big Ten) @ #7 Oregon (Pac-10) |
| #3 Cincinnati (Big East) | #11 Virginia Tech (ACC) @ #6 Boise State (WAC) |
| #4 TCU (Mountain West) | #12 LSU (SEC) @ #5 Florida (SEC) |
Eight conference champions would have made this playoff bracket. Interestingly enough, VT and Boise State were scheduled to face each other in the 2010 season opener at FedEx Field.
-Florida defeated LSU on the road.
| Top 4 | First Round |
| #1 Auburn (SEC) | #9 Michigan State (Big Ten) @ #8 Arkansas (SEC) |
| #2 Oregon (Pac-10) | #10 WAC champion* @ #7 Oklahoma (Big 12) |
| #3 TCU (Mountain West) | #11 LSU (SEC) @ #6 Ohio State (Big Ten) |
| #4 Wisconsin (Big Ten) | #12 Missouri (Big 12) @ #5 Stanford (Pac-10) |
*Both Boise State and Nevada finished the regular season with a conference record of 7-1, and Nevada won the head-to-head matchup. Boise was 11-1 overall, while Nevada was 12-1 (having played an extra home game to balance a trip to Hawaii). Both teams were named as co-champions of the WAC, and for some reason, the BCS ranked Boise State at #10 while Nevada was down at #15.
BCS team dropped:
-#13 Virginia Tech (ACC champ)
| Top 4 | First Round |
| #1 LSU (SEC) | #9 Kansas State (Big 12) @ #8 Boise State (MW) |
| #2 Oklahoma State (Big 12) | #10 South Carolina (SEC) @ #7 Arkansas (SEC) |
| #3 Oregon (Pac-12) | #11 Clemson (ACC) @ #6 Stanford (Pac-12) |
| #4 Wisconsin (Big Ten) | #12 TCU (MW) @ #5 Alabama (SEC) |
BCS teams dropped:
| Top 4 | First Round |
| #1 Alabama (SEC) | #9 LSU (SEC) @ #8 Georgia (SEC) |
| #2 Kansas State (Big 12) | #10 Texas A&M (SEC) @ #7 Oregon (Pac-12) |
| #3 Stanford (Pac-12) | #11 Northern Illinois (MAC) @ #6 Florida (SEC) |
| #4 Florida State (ACC) | #12 Boise State (MW) @ #5 Notre Dame |
BCS teams dropped:
-#21 Louisville (Big East champ)
| Top 4 | First Round |
| #1 Florida State (ACC) | #9 South Carolina (SEC) @ #8 Missouri (SEC) |
| #2 Auburn (SEC) | #10 Oregon (Pac-12) @ #7 Ohio State (Big Ten) |
| #3 Michigan State (Big Ten) | #11 Oklahoma (Big 12) @ #6 Baylor (Big 12) |
| #4 Stanford (Pac-12) | #12 UCF (American) @ #5 Alabama (SEC) |
BCS teams dropped:
-Oklahoma at Baylor would be an exact rematch of a November 7 game won by Baylor.
Thanks for going through all of these years. I agree that "Top 6 champs" makes this exercise so much easier.
ReplyDeleteJust a couple quick comments on a couple of those Boise teams.
- In 2010, there was actually a THREE-way tie for the WAC Champ. Boise, Nevada, and Hawaii all just had 1 in-conference loss. Since no tiebreaker would come into play, I would suggest including Boise since they were the highest-ranked of the three.
- In 2011, it was actually TCU who was the Mountain West Champ. They had 2 losses and were ranked #18, but were undefeated in-conference and were Boise's only loss. That would make Wisconsin the 4th-highest champ, bump Boise to the quarterfinals, bring in TCU as the 6th champ, and bounce our Hokies from the playoffs altogether.
For posterity, I'm including the original version of 2011 here, so Tony's comment will make sense.
DeleteThe top four were LSU (SEC), Oklahoma State (Big 12), Oregon (Pac-12), Boise State (MW).
The first round games included #9 South Carolina (SEC) @ #8 Kansas State (Big 12); #10 Wisconsin (Big Ten) @ #7 Arkansas (SEC); #11 Virginia Tech (ACC) @ #6 Stanford (Pac-12); #12 Clemson (ACC) @ #5 Alabama (SEC).