Doing the wrap up from a bit of a distance this week, since my teams on a bye and I had other plans on Saturday. No spots clinched in any of the Power conference championship games this week, but some teams have some shots at clinching next week. However, I think a lot of the races will come down to the final week.
Remember, everything here is conference record only.
ACC
Controls destiny:
SMU (6-0)
W: FSU, Louisville, Stanford, Duke, Pitt, BC
remaining games: uva, Cal
Needs help:
Clemson (7-1)
W: NC State, Stanford, FSU, Wake Forest, uva, VT, Pitt
L: Louisville
no remaining games
Miami (5-1)
W: VT, Cal, Louisville, FSU, Duke
L: GT
remaining games: WF, Syracuse
SMU's victory ensured that the ACC will have two teams finish with at least 6 conference wins, thus eliminating any team with more than 2 losses.
We're down to a three team race now. Clemson is done with conference play, so they are unable to control their destiny. But they have not clinched a spot in the title game yet even with a 7-1 record, as it is still possible for both of the other teams to achieve a 7-1 conference record and force tiebreakers for either seed in the title game.
Clemson can clinch next weekend with a Miami loss. SMU can clinch with a win AND a Miami loss.
Miami's clearest path (one that won't involve tiebreakers) requires SMU to lose out while still winning out.
Out of contention:
Louisville (4-3)
GT (4-3)
Syracuse (4-3)
Virginia Tech (3-3)
Duke (3-3)
uva (3-3)
Pitt (3-3)
Wake Forest (2-4)
UNC (3-3)
BC (2-4)
NC State (2-4)
FSU (1-7)
Stanford (2-5)
Cal (1-5)
SEC
Controls destiny:
Texas A&M (5-1)
W: Florida, Arkansas, Missouri, Miss St, LSU
L: South Carolina
remaining games: Auburn, Texas
Texas (5-1)
W: Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Florida, Arkansas
L: Georgia
remaining games: Kentucky, Texas A&M
If either teams wins out, they are guaranteed a spot in the SEC title game. Since they play each other in the final week, we know that the SEC is guaranteed to have at least two teams with a minimum of 6 wins (the other being Georgia at 6-2), which eliminates any team with more than 2 conference losses from contention.
Needs help:
Georgia (6-2)
W: Kentucky, Auburn, Miss St, Texas, Florida, Tennessee
L: Alabama, Ole Miss
no remaining games
Tennessee (5-2)
W: Oklahoma, Florida, Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi State
L: Arkansas, Georgia
remaining game: Vanderbilt
Alabama (4-2)
W: Georgia, SC, Missouri, LSU
L: Vandy, Tennessee
remaining games: Oklahoma, Auburn
Ole Miss (4-2)
W: SC, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Georgia
L: Kentucky, LSU
remaining games: Florida, Mississippi State
Georgia has finished conference play but is at the mercy of the other teams. Making it especially interesting is how they are 1-2 against the other 2-loss teams, or 2-2 if Texas loses to join that group.
Any of the 2-loss teams will be eliminated with a loss.
If Texas and Texas A&M both win next weekend to get to 6-1, then their Thanksgiving weekend matchup will determine the SEC title game. The winner of that game will be the #1 seed, while the loser will drop into the pool of 2-loss teams and will have to settle tiebreakers. It is possible to see Texas and A&M face off in back-to-back weeks.
I don't believe there are any clinching scenarios in week 13, mainly due to Texas and A&M playing the following week, and Georgia and Tennessee not playing a conference game.
Out of contention:
LSU (3-3)
Missouri (3-3)
South Carolina (5-3)
Arkansas (3-4)
Vanderbilt (3-3)
Florida (3-4)
Oklahoma (1-5)
Auburn (1-5)
Kentucky (1-6)
Mississippi State (0-6)
Big Ten
Controls destiny:
Oregon (8-0)
W: UCLA, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan, Maryland, Wisconsin
remaining games: Washington
Indiana (7-0)
W: UCLA, Maryland, Northwestern, Nebraska, Washington, Michigan State, Michigan
remaining games: Ohio State, Purdue
Ohio State (6-1)
W: Michigan State, Iowa, Nebraska, Penn State, Purdue, Northwestern
L: Oregon
remaining games: Indiana, Michigan
If any of these teams win out, they will secure a spot in the Big Ten championship game. Ohio State and Indiana face off next week.
Oregon is on a bye next weekend, limiting their ability to clinch any spot in the title game. Although, if OSU and PSU both lose, that would allow Oregon and Indiana to clinch.
Needs help:
Penn State (6-1)
W: Illinois, UCLA, USC, Wisconsin, Washington, Purdue
L: Ohio State
remaining games: Minnesota, Maryland
Out of contention:
Iowa (4-3)
Minnesota (4-3)
Illinois (4-3)
Wisconsin (3-4)
Washington (4-4)
Michigan (3-4)
Nebraska (2-5)
Michigan State (2-5)
USC (3-5)
Northwestern (2-5)
Maryland (1-6)
Rutgers (3-4)
UCLA (3-5)
Purdue (0-6)
Big 12
BYU (6-1)
W: Kansas State, Baylor, Arizona, Oklahoma State, UCF, Utah
L: Kansas
remaining games: Arizona State, Houston
Colorado (6-1)
W: Baylor, UCF, Arizona, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Utah
L: Kansas State
remaining games: Kansas, Oklahoma State
Arizona State (5-2)
W: Kansas, Utah, Oklahoma State, UCF, Kansas State
L: Texas Tech, Cincy
remaining games: BYU, Arizona
Iowa State (5-2)
W: Houston, Baylor, WVU, UCF, Cincinnati
L: Texas Tech, Kansas
remaining games: Utah, Kansas State
Baylor (4-3)
W: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU, WVU
L: Colorado, BYU, Iowa State
remaining games: Houston, Kansas
Kansas State (4-3)
W: Oklahoma State, Colorado, WVU, Kansas
L: BYU, Houston, Arizona State
remaining games: Cincinnati, Iowa State
TCU (4-3)
W: Kansas, Utah, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State
L: UCF, Houston, Baylor
remaining games: Arizona, Cincinnati
Texas Tech (4-3)
W: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Arizona, Iowa State
L: Baylor, TCU, Colorado
remaining games: Oklahoma State, WVU
WVU (4-3)
W: Kansas, Oklahoma State, Arizona, Cincinnati
L: Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor
remaining games: UCF, Texas Tech
With BYU and Colorado both having 6 wins, that means that any team with 4 or more losses is eliminated.
Any of the current 3-loss teams will be eliminated with a loss OR wins by BYU and Colorado. Any 2-loss team will be eliminated with a loss AND wins by BYU and Colorado.
BYU and Colorado might be able to clinch at least a spot in the game with a win and losses by the current 2-loss teams.
Out of contention:
Cincinnati (3-4)
Houston (3-4)
Kansas (3-4)
UCF (2-5)
Utah (1-6)
Arizona (2-5)
Oklahoma State (0-7)
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