Was no one able to follow the script this week and make things easy? However, we are finally at the point where we can play the "what if" game and look at multiple scenarios. I still miss the divisional format when the tiebreakers were easier and settled on the field. Some of the scenarios are going down into the more abstract tiebreakers where I'm largely relying on media outlets and the conferences.
Remember, everything here is conference record only. I've got quick summaries at the end of each conference in blue text, in case you just want to get straight to the point of who to root for in week 14.
ACC
Clinched berth:
SMU (7-0)
W: FSU, Louisville, Stanford, Duke, Pitt, BC, uva
remaining game: Cal
SMU has already clinched a spot. If they win their final game, they will be the #1 seed by virtue of best conference record. If they lose that game, they still end up in the top 2 due to tiebreakers.
Controls destiny:
Miami (6-1)
W: VT, Cal, Louisville, FSU, Duke, WF
L: GT
remaining game: Syracuse
If Miami wins, they will be in the ACCCG. Miami has the tiebreaker over Clemson due to a better record against common opponents - the main difference being Clemson's loss to Louisville.
Needs help:
Clemson (7-1)
W: NC State, Stanford, FSU, Wake Forest, uva, VT, Pitt
L: Louisville
Clemson only gets in to the ACCCG if Miami loses, where they will be the #2 seed. SMU would still be the #1 seed by virtue of either best record (if they are 8-0) or by a better record against common opponents (if they are 7-1, and once more due to Clemson's loss to Louisville).
TL;DR - SMU is in. Miami is in with a win, Clemson is in if Miami loses.
SEC
Clinched berth:
Georgia (6-2)
W: Kentucky, Auburn, Miss St, Texas, Florida, Tennessee
L: Alabama, Ole Miss
The SEC has confirmed that Georgia has already clinched a spot in the title game, largely due to having head-to-head tiebreakers over Texas and Tennessee. But Tennessee has been eliminated, even if there is a four way tie at 6-2, due to step 3 of the tiebreakers. That roughly translates to Georgia and Texas A&M have victories over the highest ranked conference opponents that Tennessee doesn't have.
With that being said, the other spot in the SEC title game will be taken by the winner of Texas/Texas A&M.
Controls destiny:
Texas (6-1)
W: Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Florida, Arkansas, Kentucky
L: Georgia
remaining game: Texas A&M
Texas A&M (5-2)
W: Florida, Arkansas, Missouri, Miss St, LSU
L: South Carolina, Auburn
remaining game: Texas
Texas would get the #1 seed with the best conference record, while Texas A&M would get the #2 seed due to various tiebreakers.
TL;DR - Georgia and the winner of Texas/Texas A&M are in the SEC title game.
Big Ten
Clinched berth:
Oregon (8-0)
W: UCLA, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan, Maryland, Wisconsin
remaining games: Washington
The Big Ten has already said that Oregon wins all tiebreaking scenarios to reach the title game, even if they lose their last game.
Controls destiny:
Ohio State (7-1)
W: Michigan State, Iowa, Nebraska, Penn State, Purdue, Northwestern, Indiana
L: Oregon
remaining game: Michigan
Ohio State will clinch a berth with a win, as they would have head-to-head tiebreakers over both Indiana and Penn State. They would also clinch if all three 7-1 teams lose.
Needs help:
Penn State (7-1)
W: Illinois, UCLA, USC, Wisconsin, Washington, Purdue, Minnesota
L: Ohio State
remaining game: Maryland
Penn State clinches a berth with a win AND Ohio State loss.
Indiana (7-1)
W: UCLA, Maryland, Northwestern, Nebraska, Washington, Michigan State, Michigan
L: Ohio State
remaining game: Purdue
Indiana clinches a berth with a win AND losses by Ohio State and Penn State.
If PSU and Indiana both end the season at 8-1 while Ohio State loses to Michigan, PSU has the edge due to other tiebreakers.
TL;DR - Oregon is in.
OSU win = OSU in.
OSU loss + PSU win = PSU in.
OSU loss + PSU loss + Indiana win = Indiana in.
OSU loss + PSU loss + Indiana loss = OSU in.
Big 12
I don't think anyone wants to win the Big 12. Based strictly on records, there are 4 teams at 6-2 and 5 teams at 5-3. Two of the 5-3 teams play each other, so the loser is definitely out. But it is possible that if all of the 6-2 teams lose, and the rest of the 5-3 teams win, there will be an 8 way tie at 6-3. And of course, none of the 6-2 teams play each other in the final week in order to boost someone above the mess.
Most of the scenarios I'm seeing online only take the current 6-2 teams into account.
BYU (6-2)
W: Kansas State, Baylor, Arizona, Oklahoma State, UCF, Utah
L: Kansas, Arizona State
remaining game: Houston
Colorado (6-2)
W: Baylor, UCF, Arizona, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Utah
L: Kansas State, Kansas
remaining game: Oklahoma State
Arizona State (6-2)
W: Kansas, Utah, Oklahoma State, UCF, Kansas State, BYU
L: Texas Tech, Cincy
remaining games: Arizona
Iowa State (6-2)
W: Houston, Baylor, WVU, UCF, Cincinnati, Utah
L: Texas Tech, Kansas
remaining game: Kansas State
Baylor (5-3)
W: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU, WVU, Houston
L: Colorado, BYU, Iowa State
remaining game: Kansas
Kansas State (5-3)
W: Oklahoma State, Colorado, WVU, Kansas, Cincinnati
L: BYU, Houston, Arizona State
remaining game: Iowa State
TCU (5-3)
W: Kansas, Utah, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Arizona
L: UCF, Houston, Baylor
remaining game: Cincinnati
Texas Tech (5-3)
W: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Arizona, Iowa State, Oklahoma State
L: Baylor, TCU, Colorado
remaining game: WVU
WVU (5-3)
W: Kansas, Oklahoma State, Arizona, Cincinnati, UCF
L: Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor
remaining game: Texas Tech
TL;DR - who knows? Sit back and enjoy the chaos.
Pac-2 Champions: Oregon State over Washington State, 41-38 in the only conference game of the season.
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