ACC Coastal scenarios after week 11

It's that part of the season where the ACC Wheel of Destiny starts to slow down to select a winner. Of course, with three weeks left in the regular season, the Coastal has four out of seven teams still in contention, and 10 games left that can affect the race.



Let's start off by acknowledging that Georgia Tech is out of contention with a 1-5 record.  UNC (3-3) and Duke (2-3) are also out of contention due to not owning the right tiebreakers, but they could play a part in several tie scenarios.

The four teams left in contention are VT (3-2), UVA (5-2), Pitt (3-2), and Miami (4-3).

Outcomes with 6-2 Conference Record
VT
Set up:
-Win out (GT, Pitt, UVA)

Outcome:
VT wins, best record in division, no tiebreakers needed.

UVA
Set up:
-Beat VT

Outcome:
If Pitt wins out, then UVA would win on head-to-head.
If Pitt loses a game, UVA wins with best record, no tiebreakers needed.

Pitt
Set up:
-Win out (UNC, VT, BC)
-VT beats UVA

Outcome:
Pitt wins, best record in division, no tiebreakers needed.

If at least one of those teams stumble, that opens up a range of possibilities at 5-3.

Due to GT losing, the 7-way tie is not possible.  Duke and Miami both have 3 losses and play the final game of the season, so they cannot both be part of the same tie.  That also means there is no option for a six way tie.  On the flip side, UVA would have to be involved with every single tie at 5-3.

Five Way Ties:

VT/UVA/UNC/Pitt/Duke
Set up:
-UNC wins out (Pitt, NC State)
-Pitt loses to UNC, but beats VT and BC.
-VT loses to Pitt, but beats GT and UVA.
-Duke wins out. (Wake, Syracuse, Miami)

Group records:
UVA 3-1, Duke 1-3, and everyone else 2-2.

Outcome:
UVA wins.

VT/UVA/UNC/Pitt/Miami
Set up:
-UNC wins out (Pitt, NC State)
-Pitt loses to UNC, but beats VT and BC.
-VT loses to Pitt, but beats GT and UVA.

-Miami beats Duke.

Group records:

VT 3-1, Pitt 1-3, and everyone else 2-2.

Outcome:
VT wins.

Four Way Ties:

VT/UVA/Pitt/Duke
Set up:
-VT beats UVA, but loses to GT or Pitt.
-Pitt goes 2-1 (UNC, VT, BC)
-Duke wins out. (Wake, Syracuse, Miami)
-UNC loses any game (Pitt, NC State)

Group records:
-VT loss to GT:  UVA and VT 2-1, Pitt and Duke 1-2
-VT loss to Pitt:  UVA and Pitt 2-1, VT 1-2 and Duke 1-2

Outcome:
If VT loses to GT, VT wins on head-to-head over UVA
If VT loses to Pitt, UVA wins on head-to-head over Pitt.


VT/UVA/Pitt/Miami
Set up:
-VT beats UVA, but loses to Pitt or GT.
-Pitt goes 2-1 (UNC, VT, BC)

-Miami beats Duke

-UNC loses any game (Pitt, NC State)

Group records:

VT loss to GT:  VT 3-0, Miami 2-1, UVA 1-2, Pitt 0-3

VT loss to Pitt:  VT 2-1, Miami 2-1, UVA 1-2, Pitt 1-2

Outcome:
VT wins, either with best record, or head-to-head over Miami.


VT/UVA/Pitt/UNC
Set up:
-UNC wins out (Pitt, NC State)
-VT beats GT and UVA, but loses to Pitt.
-Pitt loses to UNC but beats VT and BC.
-Duke beats Miami but loses another game. (Wake, Syracuse)

Group records:

VT 2-1, UVA 2-1, Pitt 1-2, UNC 1-2

Outcome:

VT wins on head-to-head over UVA


VT/UVA/UNC/Miami
Set up:
-UNC wins out (Pitt, NC State)
-VT beats UVA, but loses to Pitt or GT
-Pitt loses at least two games (UNC, VT, BC)
-Miami beats Duke.

Group records:
VT 3-0, UVA 1-2, UNC 1-2, Miami 1-2

Outcome:
VT wins on best record

VT/UVA/UNC/Duke
Set up:
-UNC wins out (Pitt, NC State)
-Duke wins out (Wake, Syracuse, Miami)
-VT beats UVA, but loses to Pitt or GT.
-Pitt loses at least two games (UNC, VT, BC)

Group records:
VT 2-1, UVA 2-1, UNC 1-2, Duke 1-2

Outcome:
VT wins on head-to-head over UVA

UVA/Pitt/UNC/Miami
Set up:
-UVA loses to VT.
-VT loses to GT and Pitt.
-UNC wins out (Pitt, NC State)
-Miami beats Duke.
-Pitt loses to UNC but beats VT and BC.

Group records:
UVA 2-1, UNC 2-1, Miami 2-1, Pitt 0-3

Drop to three way tie of UVA/UNC/Miami, where each is 1-1 against each other.

Division records:
UNC and UVA 4-2, Miami 3-3

Outcome:
UVA wins on head-to-head over UNC


UVA/Pitt/UNC/Duke
Set up:
-UVA loses to VT.
-VT loses to GT and Pitt.
-UNC wins out (Pitt, NC State)
-Duke wins out (Wake, Syracuse, Miami)
-Pitt loses to UNC but beats VT and BC.

Group records:
UVA 3-0, UNC 2-1, Miami 2-1, Duke 0-3

Outcome:
UVA wins on best record


Three Way Ties:

VT/UVA/UNC
Set up:
-VT beats UVA but loses to GT or Pitt.
-UNC wins out (Pitt, NC State)
-Pitt loses at least two games (UNC, VT, BC)
-Duke beats Miami but loses to Wake and/or Syracuse

Group records:
VT 2-0, UVA 1-1, UNC 0-2

Outcome:
VT wins on best record


VT/UVA/Duke
Set up:
-VT beats UVA but loses to GT or Pitt.
-Duke wins out (Wake, Syracuse, Miami)
-Pitt loses at least two games (UNC, VT, BC)
-UNC loses at least one game (Pitt, NC State)

Group records:
all are 1-1

Division records:
VT and UVA 4-2, Duke 3-3

Outcome:
VT wins on head-to-head over UVA


VT/UVA/Miami
Set up:
-VT beats UVA but loses to GT or Pitt.
-Miami beats Duke
-Pitt loses at least two games (UNC, VT, BC)
-UNC loses at least one game (Pitt, NC State)

Group records:
VT 2-0, Miami 1-1, UVA 0-2

Outcome:
VT wins on best record


VT/UVA/Pitt (option #1)
Set up:
-VT beats Pitt and UVA but loses to GT
-Duke beats Miami but loses to Wake and/or Syracuse
-Pitt beats UNC and BC but loses to VT

Group records:
VT 2-0, UVA 1-1, Pitt 0-2

Outcome:
VT wins on best record


VT/UVA/Pitt (option #2)
Set up:
-VT beats GT and UVA but loses to Pitt.
-Duke beats Miami but loses to Wake and/or Syracuse
-Pitt beats VT and BC, but loses to UNC
-UNC loses to NC State

Group records:
all are 1-1

Division records:
VT 4-2, UVA 4-2, Pitt 3-3

Outcome:
VT wins on head-to-head over UVA


VT/UVA/Pitt (option #3)
Set up:
-VT beats GT and UVA but loses to Pitt.
-Duke beats Miami but loses to Wake and/or Syracuse
-Pitt beats VT and UNC but loses to BC

Group records:
all are 1-1

Division records:
all are 4-2

Outcome:
TBD


UVA/UNC/Duke
Set up:
-VT beats UVA but loses to GT and Pitt.
-UNC wins out (Pitt, NC State)
-Duke wins out (Wake, Syracuse, Miami)
-Pitt beats VT but loses to UNC and BC

Group records:
UVA 2-0, UNC 1-1, Duke 0-2

Outcome:
UVA wins on best record


UVA/UNC/Miami
Set up:
-VT beats UVA but loses to GT and Pitt.
-UNC wins out (Pitt, NC State)
-Miami beats Duke
-Pitt beats VT but loses to UNC and BC

Group records:
all are 1-1

Division records:
UNC 4-2, UVA 4-2, Miami 3-3

Outcome:
UVA wins on head-to-head over UNC


UVA/UNC/Pitt
Set up:
-VT beats UVA but loses to GT and Pitt.
-UNC wins out (Pitt, NC State)
-Duke beats Miami but loses at least one other game (Wake, Syracuse)
-Pitt beats VT but loses to UNC and BC

Group records:
UVA 2-0, UNC 1-1, Pitt 0-2

Outcome:
UVA wins on best record


UVA/Pitt/Duke
Set up:
-VT beats UVA but loses to GT and Pitt.
-Pitt beats VT but loses to UNC or BC
-UNC loses to Pitt and/or NC State
-Duke wins out (Wake, Syracuse, Miami)

Group records:
UVA 2-0, Pitt 1-1, Duke 0-2

Outcome:
UVA wins on best record


UVA/Pitt/Miami
Set up:
-VT beats UVA but loses to GT and Pitt.

-Pitt beats VT but loses to UNC or BC
-UNC loses to Pitt and/or NC State

-Miami beats Duke

Group records:

Miami 2-0, UVA 1-1, Pitt 0-2

Outcome:

Miami wins on best record

Two Way Ties:
Any two way tie would have to involve UVA after losing to VT, and dropping to 5-3.  So, if the two teams in each tie below are the only 5-3 teams, this is how the division would shake out.  (There's probably several ways for some of these ties to happen while others might be technically impossible.)

UVA/VT - VT wins
UVA/Pitt - UVA wins
UVA/Miami - Miami wins
UVA/Duke - UVA wins
UVA/UNC - UVA wins


There are 29 different outcomes listed above.  They break down by team this way:

VT - 13
UVA - 12
Miami - 2
Pitt - 1
TBD - 1 (could be VT, UVA, or Pitt)

Pitt's primary chance of winning involves winning out while having VT beat UVA.  They might have a chance if they lose to BC, but we won't know that until after the games are played.

Miami's two scenarios with a division title requires them beating Duke and VT only beating UVA the rest of the year.