The Peach and Fiesta Bowls are the semi-finals this season, which means that there is only room for one at-large team, who will play the G5 representative in the Cotton Bowl. This also means that none of the champs who aren't in the CFP will be getting displaced from their regular landing spot.
Still don't have a second ranked ACC team at this point. So I'm looking over at the AP poll, so AP #25 VT gets the nod in my projection here.
Still can't go with the actual top four, as #1 and #4 are set up to play in the SEC championship game.
Peach: LSU (#1) vs. Oregon (#6)
Fiesta: Ohio State (#2) vs. Clemson (#3)
The only bowl not needing a replacement for their champ is the Sugar for the Big 12.
Sugar: Georgia (#4, SEC replacement) vs. Oklahoma (#9, Big 12 projected champ)
Rose: Penn State (#8, Big Ten replacement) vs. Utah (#7, Pac-12 replacement)
Orange: Virginia Tech (NR, ACC replacement) vs. Alabama (#5, highest ranked non-champ/non-replacement out of SEC/Big Ten/ND)
Cotton: Memphis (#18, G5) vs. Minnesota (#10, highest ranked team not already placed)
If I wanted to hedge my bets, I would say that the winner of the Pac-12 championship game will go to a semi-final, with the loser in the Rose Bowl. Right now, I'm projecting Utah vs. Oregon in that match-up.
And now, the week to week comparisons:
| Semi-final #1 | 1 seed | 4 seed |
| Week 10 | #1 Ohio State | #7 Oregon |
| Week 11 | #1 LSU | #6 Oregon |
| Week 12 | #1 LSU | #6 Oregon |
| Week 13 | ||
| Week 14 |
| Semi-final #2 | 2 seed | 3 seed |
| Week 10 | #2 LSU | #5 Clemson |
| Week 11 | #2 Ohio State | #3 Clemson |
| Week 12 | #2 Ohio State | #3 Clemson |
| Week 13 | ||
| Week 14 |
| Sugar | SEC | Big 12 |
| Week 10 | #3 Alabama | #9 Oklahoma |
| Week 11 | #4 Georgia | #10 Oklahoma |
| Week 12 | #4 Georgia | #10 Oklahoma |
| Week 13 | ||
| Week 14 |
| Rose | Big Ten | Pac-12 |
| Week 10 | #4 Penn State | #8 Utah |
| Week 11 | #8 Minnesota | #7 Utah |
| Week 12 | #8 Penn State | #7 Utah |
| Week 13 | ||
| Week 14 |
| Orange | ACC | SEC/B1G/ND |
| Week 10 | #19 Wake Forest | #6 Georgia |
| Week 11 | NR Wake Forest | #5 Alabama |
| Week 12 | NR Virginia Tech | #5 Alabama |
| Week 13 | ||
| Week 14 |
| Cotton | G5 | At-large |
| Week 10 | #20 Cincinnati | #10 Florida |
| Week 11 | #17 Cincinnati | #9 Penn State |
| Week 12 | #18 Memphis | #10 Minnesota |
| Week 13 | ||
| Week 14 |
The only team to drop out of the projections from last week is Florida, replaced by Minnesota.
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