Week 10 wrap up

We're hitting the part of the season where the extra week is really showing.  So many scenarios are one game away from a team clinching or being eliminated, only to be followed up by a bye week or non-conference game.

ACC
Atlantic
Magic number: 3

Controls destiny:
-Clemson (6-0) has tiebreakers over Louisville, Syracuse, and FSU.
-Wake Forest (3-1) has tiebreakers over BC and FSU.  They lost to Louisville.

Out of control:
-Louisville (3-2) has a slim chance if they get into a three way tie with Clemson and Wake Forest.  In order to set up that scenario, Clemson would need to lose out (NC State, Wake Forest), while Wake Forest would need to lose to Syracuse in the final week of the season.  (If WF loses to Clemson, then Clemson would clinch.  If WF drops one of their two Coastal games but wins out, they would get a better division record and clinch on that tiebreaker.)  If Clemson, WF, and Louisville all ended up at 6-2 in conference, 1-1 against each other, and 4-2 in division, then we'd have to go to the next tiebreaker.  Again, it's too early in the season to worry about that.  Louisville is most likely out of contention, but I can't say for sure.  Either way, Louisville faces elimination with a loss OR Clemson win.

Out of contention:
-BC (3-3) was eliminated by losing to Clemson.
-FSU (3-4) was eliminated when Clemson beat BC.

-NC State (1-3) was eliminated by losing to Wake Forest.
-Syracuse (0-5) was eliminated by losing to FSU.

Coastal
Magic number:  5

Controls destiny:
-UVA (4-2) has tiebreakers over UNC, Pitt, and Duke.  They lost to Miami.
-VT (2-2) has tiebreakers over Miami and UNC.  They lost to Duke.

Needs help:
-Pitt (3-2) needs a UVA loss.  They have tiebreakers over Duke and GT.  They lost to Miami.
-UNC (3-3) needs losses by VT (2), and UVA (2).  They have tiebreakers over Duke, Miami, and GT.
-Miami (3-3) needs losses by UNC, VT (2), UVA, and Pitt.  They have tiebreakers over UVA and Pitt.
-Duke (2-3) needs losses by Pitt (2), UVA (2), UNC, and VT.  They have a tiebreaker over VT.
-GT (1-4) needs losses by Duke (2), UNC (2), and Pitt (3), plus extra losses by VT and UVA.  They have a tiebreaker over Miami.  They will be eliminated with a loss.

Bowl eligible:  Clemson, WF, UVA, Pitt, Notre Dame
One win away:  Louisville, BC, Miami
One loss away from no bowl:  Syracuse, GT

SEC
East
Magic number:  5

Controls destiny:
-Georgia (4-1) has tiebreakers over Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee. They lost to USCe.

Needs help:
-Florida (4-2) needs 2 Georgia losses.  They have tiebreakers over Kentucky, Tennessee, and USCe.
-Missouri (2-2) has a tiebreaker over USCe.  They lost to Vanderbilt and Kentucky.
-Tennessee (2-3) needs losses by Florida (2) and Georgia (3), plus an extra Missouri loss.  They will be eliminated with a loss AND a Florida or Georgia win.

Out of control:
-South Carolina (3-4) would need a multi-team tie with Florida, Georgia, and other teams at 4-4 to have any chance.  They have tiebreakers over Vanderbilt, Georgia, and Kentucky.  They will be eliminated with a loss OR Florida or Georgia win.

-Kentucky (2-4) would need a multi-team tie with Florida, Georgia, and other teams at 4-4 to have any chance.  They will be eliminated with a loss OR Florida or Georgia win.

-Vanderbilt (1-4) would need a multi-team tie with Florida, Georgia, and other teams at 4-4.  They will be eliminated with a loss OR a Florida or Georgia win.

Missouri is appealing a postseason ban from the NCAA, so as of now they are not eligible to win the division.  I will keep track of them as normal until a decision is finalized.

West
Magic number: 4

Controls destiny:
-Alabama (5-0) has tiebreakers over Ole Miss and Texas A&M.
-LSU (4-0) has a tiebreaker over Auburn.

Needs help:
-Auburn (4-2) needs 3 LSU losses and an extra Alabama loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Texas A&M.
-Texas A&M (3-2) needs an Auburn loss, 3 Alabama losses, and an extra LSU loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Ole Miss.

Out of contention:

-Ole Miss (2-4) was eliminated by losing to Auburn.

-Mississippi State (2-4) was eliminated by losing to Texas A&M.

-Arkansas (0-6) was eliminated by losing to Alabama.

Bowl eligible:  Florida, Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Auburn, Texas A&M
One game away:  Missouri (pending appeal)
One loss away:  Vanderbilt, Ole Miss
No bowl:  Arkansas

Big Ten
East
Magic number:  4 (OSU/PSU winner will guarantee a 6th win)

Controls destiny:
-Ohio State (5-0) has tiebreakers over Indiana and Michigan State.
-Penn State (5-0) has tiebreakers over Michigan and Michigan State.

Needs help:
-Michigan (4-2) needs 3 PSU losses and an extra OSU loss.
-Indiana (4-2) needs three Ohio State losses and an extra Penn State loss.

Out of control:
-Michigan State (2-3) would need both Ohio State and Penn State to lose out in order to regain control.  Such a task is impossible as those teams have yet to play each other.  They have a tiebreaker over Indiana.

Out of contention:
-Maryland (1-5) was eliminated by losing to Minnesota.

-Rutgers (0-6) was officially eliminated when OSU beat Wisconsin.

West
Magic number:  5

Controls destiny:
-Minnesota (5-0) has tiebreakers over Nebraska, Illinois, and Purdue.

Needs help:
-Wisconsin (3-2) needs an extra Minnesota loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Northwestern.
-Iowa (3-2) needs an extra Minnesota loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Purdue.

-Illinois (3-3) needs 4 Minnesota losses, 2 Nebraska losses, and 2 Wisconsin losses.  They have a tiebreaker over Wisconsin.

Out of control:
-Purdue (2-4) would need to force a tie with Minnesota and other teams.  They will be eliminated with a loss OR Minnesota win.
-Nebraska (2-4) would need to force a tie with Minnesota and other teams.  They will be eliminated with a loss OR Minnesota win.

Out of contention:
-Northwestern (0-6) was eliminated by losing to Iowa.

Bowl eligible:  Michigan, Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa
One game away:  Illinois
One loss away from no bowl:  Purdue
No bowl:  Rutgers, Northwestern

Pac-12
North
Magic number:  4

Controls destiny:
-Oregon (6-0) has tiebreakers over Washington State, Washington, Stanford, and Cal.

Needs help:
-Oregon State (3-2) needs an extra Oregon loss.  They have a tiebreaker over Cal.
-Stanford (3-3) needs 4 Oregon losses and an Oregon State loss.  They have tiebreakers over Oregon State and Washington.  They will be eliminated with a loss OR Oregon win.

Out of contention:
-Washington (2-4) was eliminated when Oregon beat USC.
-Cal (1-4) was eliminated when Oregon beat USC.
-Washington State (1-4) was eliminated when Oregon beat USC.

South
Magic number:  5

Controls destiny:
-Utah (5-1) has a tiebreaker over Arizona State.
-UCLA (4-2) has a tiebreaker over Arizona State.

Needs help:
-USC (4-2) needs a Utah loss.  They have tiebreakers over Colorado, Utah, and Arizona.
-Arizona State (2-3) needs losses by UCLA (2), and Utah (2), plus an extra USC loss.
-Arizona (2-4) needs losses by USC (2) and UCLA (2), plus extra losses by Utah (2).  They have tiebreakers over Colorado and UCLA.

Out of contention:
-Colorado (1-5) was eliminated by losing to UCLA.

Bowl eligible: Oregon, Utah
One game away:  Washington, Arizona State, USC
One loss away:  Colorado

Big 12
-Baylor (5-0) has tiebreakers over WVU, OK State, Texas Tech, K-State, and Iowa State.
-Oklahoma (4-1) has tiebreakers over WVU, Texas, Kansas, and Texas Tech.  They lost to K-State.
-Texas (3-2) has tiebreakers over Kansas, OK State, and WVU.  They lost to Oklahoma and TCU.
-Iowa State (3-2) has tiebreakers over Texas Tech, TCU, and WVU.  They lost to Baylor and Oklahoma State.
-Kansas State (3-2) has tiebreakers over Kansas, Oklahoma, and TCU.  They lost to Baylor and OK State.
-Oklahoma State (3-3) has tiebreakers over TCU, Iowa State, and K-State.  They lost to Baylor, Texas, and Texas Tech.
-TCU (2-3) has tiebreakers over Texas and Kansas.  They lost to OK State, Iowa State, and K-State.
-WVU (1-4) has a tiebreaker over Kansas.  They lost to Baylor, Oklahoma, Texas, and Iowa State.
-Kansas (1-5) has a tiebreaker over Texas Tech.  They lost to K-State, Texas, Oklahoma, TCU, and WVU.
-Texas Tech (1-4) has a tiebreaker over OK State.  They lost to Iowa State, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Baylor.

Baylor and Oklahoma still control their destiny to the Big 12 championship game.

Bowl eligible: Baylor, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
One game away:  Iowa State, Texas
One loss away:  Kansas