The Peach and Fiesta Bowls are the semi-finals this season, which means that there is only room for one at-large team, who will play the G5 representative in the Cotton Bowl. This also means that none of the champs who aren't in the CFP will be getting displaced from their regular landing spot.
Not a single team in the CFP top 25 remained in the same spot that they were in last week. Everyone either moved up or down.
Projecting this week is a lot tougher than I expected. Having three SEC teams in the top 5 is being more difficult than usual, especially considering that #1 LSU will likely play #4 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, and already beat #5 Alabama.
The other difficult part of projecting this week is the ACC. Clemson is the only ranked team. To get a replacement team for the Orange Bowl, I'm looking at the "others receiving votes" section of the AP poll. Right now, only Wake Forest, UVA, and VT are in that section, with Wake having a lead. I feel that will change, as they lost to VT last week and will likely lose to Clemson next week.
Again, I can't go with the actual top four at this point. I'm going with #1-3 and surprisingly #6.
Peach: LSU (#1) vs. Oregon (#6)
Fiesta: Ohio State (#2) vs. Clemson (#3)
Hoping that potential Fiesta Bowl matchup will be a lot more interesting than the last time those teams met in that location. (And all we need for that is for OSU to score a point.)
The only bowl not needing a replacement for their champ is the Sugar for the Big 12.
Sugar: Georgia (#4, SEC replacement) vs. Oklahoma (#10, Big 12 projected champ)
Rose: Minnesota (#8, Big Ten replacement) vs. Utah (#7, Pac-12 replacement)
Orange: Wake Forest (NR, ACC replacement) vs. Alabama (#5, highest ranked non-champ/non-replacement out of SEC/Big Ten/ND)
Cotton: Cincinnati (#17, G5) vs. Penn State (#9, highest ranked team not already placed)
The race for that Cotton Bowl spot seems to be picking up steam, as we have Cincy and Memphis back-to-back at #17 and 18, with Boise and Navy coming up at #21 and 23.
Just for comparison sake, here's how the projections have looked week to week.
| Semi-final #1 | 1 seed | 4 seed |
| Week 10 | #1 Ohio State | #7 Oregon |
| Week 11 | #1 LSU | #6 Oregon |
| Week 12 | ||
| Week 13 | ||
| Week 14 |
| Semi-final #2 | 2 seed | 3 seed |
| Week 10 | #2 LSU | #5 Clemson |
| Week 11 | #2 Ohio State | #3 Clemson |
| Week 12 | ||
| Week 13 | ||
| Week 14 |
| Sugar | SEC | Big 12 |
| Week 10 | #3 Alabama | #9 Oklahoma |
| Week 11 | #4 Georgia | #10 Oklahoma |
| Week 12 | ||
| Week 13 | ||
| Week 14 |
| Rose | Big Ten | Pac-12 |
| Week 10 | #4 Penn State | #8 Utah |
| Week 11 | #8 Minnesota | #7 Utah |
| Week 12 | ||
| Week 13 | ||
| Week 14 |
| Orange | ACC | SEC/B1G/ND |
| Week 10 | #19 Wake Forest | #6 Georgia |
| Week 11 | NR Wake Forest | #5 Alabama |
| Week 12 | ||
| Week 13 | ||
| Week 14 |
| Cotton | G5 | At-large |
| Week 10 | #20 Cincinnati | #10 Florida |
| Week 11 | #17 Cincinnati | #9 Penn State |
| Week 12 | ||
| Week 13 | ||
| Week 14 |
The only team to drop out of the projections from last week is Florida, replaced by Minnesota.
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