ACC Coastal scenarios during week 12

A quick update on the Coastal scenarios after UNC lost to Pitt on Thursday night.  Pitt avoided elimination by winning, but UNC's loss dropped them out of any potential tie scenarios.

The Commonwealth Cup will not be able to lock into a winner-take-all game thanks to Pitt's win.

The four teams left in contention are VT (3-2), UVA (5-2), Pitt (4-2), and Miami (4-3).

Outcomes with 6-2 Conference Record
VT
Set up:
-Win out (GT, Pitt, UVA)

Outcome:
VT wins, best record in division, no tiebreakers needed.

UVA
Set up:
-Beat VT

Outcome:
If Pitt wins out, then UVA would win on head-to-head.
If Pitt loses a game, UVA wins with best record, no tiebreakers needed.

Pitt
Set up:
-Win out (VT, BC)
-VT beats UVA

Outcome:
Pitt wins, best record in division, no tiebreakers needed.

If at least one of those teams stumble, that opens up a range of possibilities at 5-3.

Since UVA is 5-2 with only one game left, they would have to be involved with every single tie possible at 5-3.  Due to GT and UNC both having 4 or more losses, 7- or 6-way ties are not possible.
Duke and Miami both have 3 losses and play the final game of the season, so they cannot both be part of the same tie, meaning a five way tie is also impossible.

Four Way Ties:

VT/UVA/Pitt/Duke (option #1)
Set up:
-VT beats Pitt and UVA, but loses to GT.
-Pitt loses to VT but beats BC
-Duke wins out. (Wake, Syracuse, Miami)

Group records:
UVA and VT 2-1, Pitt and Duke 1-2

Outcome:
VT wins on head-to-head over UVA


VT/UVA/Pitt/Duke (option #2)
Set up:
-VT beats GT and UVA, but loses to Pitt.
-Pitt beats VT but loses to BC.
-Duke wins out. (Wake, Syracuse, Miami)

Group records:
UVA and Pitt 2-1, VT 1-2 and Duke 1-2

Outcome:
UVA wins on head-to-head over Pitt.


VT/UVA/Pitt/Miami (option #1)
Set up:
-VT beats Pitt and UVA, but loses to GT.
-Pitt loses to VT but beats BC

-Miami beats Duke

Group records:

VT 3-0, Miami 2-1, UVA 1-2, Pitt 0-3

Outcome:
VT wins with best record


VT/UVA/Pitt/Miami (option #2)
Set up:
-VT beats GT and UVA, but loses to Pitt.
-Pitt beats VT but loses to BC.

-Miami beats Duke

Group records:

VT 2-1, Miami 2-1, UVA 1-2, Pitt 1-2

Outcome:
VT wins on head-to-head over Miami.


Three Way Ties:

VT/UVA/Duke
Set up:
-VT beats Pitt and UVA but loses to GT
-Duke wins out (Wake, Syracuse, Miami)
-Pitt loses out (VT, BC)

Group records:
all are 1-1

Division records:
VT and UVA 4-2, Duke 3-3

Outcome:
VT wins on head-to-head over UVA


VT/UVA/Miami
Set up:
-VT beats Pitt and UVA but loses to GT
-Miami beats Duke
-Pitt loses out (VT, BC)

Group records:
VT 2-0, Miami 1-1, UVA 0-2

Outcome:
VT wins on best record


VT/UVA/Pitt (option #1)
Set up:
-VT beats Pitt and UVA but loses to GT
-Duke beats Miami but loses to Wake and/or Syracuse
-Pitt beats BC but loses to VT

Group records:
VT 2-0, UVA 1-1, Pitt 0-2

Outcome:
VT wins on best record


VT/UVA/Pitt (option #2)
Set up:
-VT beats GT and UVA but loses to Pitt.
-Duke beats Miami but loses to Wake and/or Syracuse
-Pitt beats VT but loses to BC

Group records:
all are 1-1

Division records:
all are 4-2

Outcome:
TBD


UVA/Pitt/Duke
Set up:
-VT beats UVA but loses to GT and Pitt.
-Pitt beats VT but loses to BC
-UNC loses to Pitt and/or NC State
-Duke wins out (Wake, Syracuse, Miami)

Group records:
UVA 2-0, Pitt 1-1, Duke 0-2

Outcome:
UVA wins on best record


UVA/Pitt/Miami
Set up:
-VT beats UVA but loses to GT and Pitt.

-Pitt beats VT but loses to BC
-UNC loses to Pitt and/or NC State

-Miami beats Duke

Group records:

Miami 2-0, UVA 1-1, Pitt 0-2

Outcome:

Miami wins on best record

Two Way Ties:
Any two way tie would have to involve UVA after losing to VT, and dropping to 5-3.  So, if the two teams in each tie below are the only 5-3 teams, this is how the division would shake out.  (There's probably several ways for some of these ties to happen while others might be technically impossible.)

UVA/VT
Set up:
-VT beats Pitt and UVA but loses to GT
-Pitt loses to VT and BC
-Duke loses to Syracuse or Wake but beats Miami

Outcome:
VT wins on head-to-head

UVA/Pitt
Set up:
-VT beats UVA but loses to GT and Pitt
-Pitt beats VT but loses to BC
-Duke loses to Syracuse or Wake but beats Miami

Outcome:
UVA wins on head-to-head

Two way ties between UVA and Miami or Duke are impossible.  In order to achieve that, VT would have to lose to GT and Pitt to drop them to 4 losses.  That would put Pitt up to 5 wins, thus ensuring that any 5-3 tie scenario would have to feature both UVA and Pitt.

There are 15 different outcomes listed above (down from 29).  They break down by team this way:

VT - 8 (down from 13)
UVA - 4 (down from 12)
Miami - 1 (down from 2)
Pitt - 1
TBD - 1 (could be VT, UVA, or Pitt)

Pitt's primary chance of winning involves winning out while having VT beat UVA.  They might have a chance if they lose to BC, but we won't know that until after the games are played.

Miami faces elimination this weekend if VT beats GT.