ACC Coastal scenarios after week 12

The Coastal race has cleared up tremendously after two dominating performances by Virginia Tech and Syracuse.  Let's see how many scenarios still remain.

The four teams left in contention are VT (4-2), UVA (5-2), and Pitt (4-2).  Miami was eliminated by VT beating GT.  Duke and UNC both dropped out of any tie scenarios by losing their fourth conference game each.  GT was already out.  Therefore, any scenarios of 5, 6, or 7 way ties no longer exist.

Outcomes with 6-2 Conference Record
VT
Set up:
-Win out (Pitt, UVA)

Outcome:
VT wins, best record in division, no tiebreakers needed.

UVA
Set up:
-Beat VT

Outcome:
If Pitt wins out, then UVA would win on head-to-head.
If Pitt loses a game, UVA wins with best record, no tiebreakers needed.

Pitt
Set up:
-Win out (VT, BC)
-VT beats UVA

Outcome:
Pitt wins, best record in division, no tiebreakers needed.

Since UVA is 5-2 with only one game left, they would have to be involved with every single tie possible at 5-3.  That loss would give VT their 5th win, meaning they also must be involved with every tie possible.  For VT to finish 5-3 under those circumstance would mean that Pitt also gets a fifth win.  Therefore, all ties at 5-3 have to include VT, UVA, and Pitt, meaning that no two team ties are possible anymore.

Four Way Ties:

VT/UVA/Pitt/Miami
Set up:
-VT beats UVA, but loses to Pitt.
-Pitt beats VT but loses to BC.

-Miami beats Duke

Group records:

VT 2-1, Miami 2-1, UVA 1-2, Pitt 1-2

Outcome:
VT wins on head-to-head over Miami.


Three Way Ties:

VT/UVA/Pitt
Set up:
-VT beats UVA but loses to Pitt.
-Pitt beats VT but loses to BC
-Miami loses to Duke.

Group records:
all are 1-1

Division records:
all are 4-2

Outcome:
TBD


Two Way Ties:
Any two way tie would have to involve UVA after losing to VT, and dropping to 5-3.  That win would push VT up to a minimum of 5 wins, meaning that UVA and VT will both have to be involved with every tie situation.  However, the only scenario for both teams to be 5-3 is if Pitt beats VT, which would give Pitt a fifth win.

Therefore, there are no two way ties possible at 5-3.

There are 5 different outcomes listed above (down from 15 after Thursday and 29 after last week).  They break down by team this way:

VT - 2 (down from 8 on Thursday and 13 last week)
UVA - 1 (down from 4 on Thursday and 12 last week)
Pitt - 1
TBD - 1 (could be VT, UVA, or Pitt)
Miami - 0 (down from 1 on Thursday and 2 last week)

If VT beats Pitt, then Pitt will be eliminated and the Commonwealth Cup will be a winner-take-all divisional championship.