Wednesday, January 29, 2014

What if the playoffs were around the past three years?

In an effort to illustrate how the new playoff system and bowl selection works, I will look at 2011-2013 and how those the playoffs would have looked in those years.


I won't try to matchup the at-large bowls, but just simply give the teams that would be selected.

This list won't be perfect, because I'm using the BCS rankings, which may or may not reflect what the selection committee would choose.  Also, since the conferences have shifted around, the Big East is at a disadvantage.

Of course, there would be controversy even in this hypothetical.  In 2011, Oregon finished at #5, as Pac-12 champ, but Stanford was ranked ahead of them at #4.  In 2012, Oregon finished #4, but lost to Pac-12 champ Stanford, ranked #6, during the season.

In both cases, since #5 was a conference champ, I opted for that team.  I figured it was less controversy for a conference champ to get in over a non-conference champ.  Granted, the SEC had two teams in the top three both years, but since the SEC champ was already in the playoffs, it wouldn't be as controversial for their #2 team to be in as well.

I'm sure there would be controversy over allowing 2 SEC teams into the semi-finals, but since there were two SEC teams in the top three every freaking year, I figured it was easier for this hypothetical to include them.

2011
The four playoff teams:  LSU (#1, SEC champs), Alabama (#2, SEC), Oklahoma State (#3, Big 12 champs), and Oregon (#5, Pac-12 champs).

Interestingly enough, LSU played both Alabama and Oregon in the regular season, beating both.

The Rose and Sugar Bowls would have been the semi-finals this year.  This would have created an interesting conundrum for the selection committee, since they don't want to put the top two seeds in a "road" environment for the playoffs.  Obviously, the Alabama vs. Oklahoma State matchup would be right at home in the Sugar Bowl, but LSU would be at a geographic disadvantage to Oregon in the Rose Bowl.

We only have to worry about one team getting displaced from their bowl:  #10 Wisconsin, Big Ten champ.

Next, we'll move to the Orange Bowl, who would be anchored by ACC champ Clemson (#15).  So, we make a list by going down the rest of the top 25 and picking out the SEC and Big Ten teams left:  Arkansas, South Carolina, Michigan, Georgia, Michigan State, Nebraska, and Auburn.  We're just looking purely at rankings, and not comparing records.  Notre Dame was not ranked, so they are not in consideration. 

Since Arkansas (#6) doesn't cause a rematch, we have our Orange Bowl:  Clemson vs. Arkansas.

TCU was still in the Mountain West, and was the highest ranked Group of 5 champion at #18.

For the at-large teams, I'm just picking the highest ranked teams not already in a bowl, since we don't have the 2 team limit in the CFP.

So, the teams that would be selected for the Fiesta, Cotton, and Peach Bowls are:
-Wisconsin (#10, Big Ten champ)
-TCU (#18, non-AQ champ)
-Stanford (#4, Pac-12)
-Boise State (#7, Mountain West)
-Kansas State (#8, Big 12)
-South Carolina (#9, SEC).

All of the top ten teams are represented in this series of bowls, along with #15 and #18.  We have 4 SEC teams, 2 Pac-12 teams, 2 Big 12 teams, 2 Group of 5 teams, 1 ACC team, 1 Big Ten team.

Ironically, while TCU gets the automatic Group of 5 bid, Boise State slips into the spotlight bowls since they are ranked 11 spots higher than their conference champ.

Teams that were in BCS bowls in 2011 but not in CFP bowls include #11 Virginia Tech (ACC at-large, Sugar Bowl), #13 Michigan (Big Ten at-large, Sugar Bowl), and #23 West Virginia (Big East champs, Orange Bowl).

2012
The four playoff teams:  Notre Dame (#1), Alabama (#2, SEC champs), Florida (#3, SEC), and Kansas State (#5, Big 12 champs).

Semi-finals this year are hosted by the Orange and Cotton Bowls.  It's hard to say which bowl would have which matchup.  The Cotton Bowl has traditionally had tie-ins with the SEC and Big 12, so would not be a stretch for either matchup.  However, since the Orange Bowl is in Florida, the committee might feel that the #3 Gators would have home state advantage.  Yet, it would be closer for both schools to travel.  Notre Dame considers itself a "national" school, so they probably don't mind playing anywhere.

Only the ACC champion is displaced by the semi-finals:  #12 Florida State.

The Rose Bowl would host unranked Wisconsin as the Big Ten champ, and #6 Stanford as the Pac-12 champ, which did happen in the real world.  Also keep in mind that this was the year that both Penn State and Ohio State were not eligible for the postseason, so third place Wisconsin slipped into the Big Ten championship game and won, hence their lack of ranking.

The Sugar Bowl would have to replace both of their teams.  To represent the Big 12, they would take #11 Oklahoma, and most likely #7 Georgia for the SEC.

The teams available for the Fiesta and Peach Bowls are:
-Florida State (#12, ACC champ)
-Northern Illinois (#15, non-AQ champ)
-Oregon (#4, Pac-12)
-LSU (#8, SEC)

Only the top 8 teams are represented in this series of bowls, along with #11, #12, #15, and an unranked team.  Before we think that the rest of the top ten is slighted, the top of the final BCS poll was very SEC-heavy, with 6 SEC teams in the top ten, but then no other SEC teams ranked.

We have 4 SEC teams, 2 Big 12 teams, 2 Pac-12 teams, 1 ACC team, 1 Big Ten team, 1 Group of 5 team, and 1 independent.

The only team in a 2012 BCS bowl but not in a CFP game is #21 Louisville, the Big East champ, who appeared in the Sugar Bowl.

We have one bowl game that remains the same in the Rose Bowl.  We have a potential for the real world Orange Bowl to be matched up, as Florida State and Northern Illinois are available for the at-large bowls.

2013
The four playoff teams:  Florida State (#1, ACC champ), Auburn (#2, SEC champ), Michigan State (#4, B1G champ), Stanford (#5, Pac-12 champ)

I'm sorry, but I have to break from the last two seasons.  Maybe it's because we're still so close to this season, but I have to imagine that the CFP committee would not allow Alabama in, since it would mean Alabama plays the Iron Bowl two games in a row.  Then there's debate about an 11-2 Stanford or an 11-1 Baylor, both conference champs.

Semi-finals are in the Fiesta and Peach Bowls, which means that no one gets displaced.  Both of the top two teams have a decent claim geographically on the Peach Bowl.  No one is close to the Fiesta Bowl, except whoever ends up in the fourth seed.

The Rose Bowl would have to replace both of its regular teams, so they would probably take #14 Arizona State from the Pac-12 and #7 Ohio State from the B1G.

The Sugar Bowl would have #6 Baylor as the Big 12 champ, facing #3 Alabama as the SEC replacement.

The Orange Bowl would take #12 Clemson as the ACC replacement.  The next SEC or B1G team in the rankings is #8 Missouri (SEC).  The Orange Bowl better watch out, because they're already 2 for 2 in choosing SEC teams, which means they better hope the B1G starts producing better quality teams in the next few years.

With the Cotton Bowl being the only at-large bowl available this season, they have to take the Group of 5 champ, which is #15 UCF this year.  The highest ranked team not already claimed is #9 South Carolina from the SEC.

The top nine are represented, as well as #12, #14, and #15, which means 12 out of the top 15.  We have 4 SEC teams, 2 B1G teams, 2 ACC teams, 2 Pac-12 teams, 1 Big 12 team, and 1 Group of 5 team.

The only team in a 2013 BCS bowl, but not a CFP game is #11 Oklahoma (Sugar Bowl, at-large).

Overview
I see flaws in both sets of spotlight games.  I think the Orange Bowl could cause some issues with their non-ACC team.  I don't know if the SEC is changing their bowl tie-ins, but if they are getting upwards of 4 or 5 teams in CFP bowls, then the non-CFP bowls with SEC tie-ins might start getting upset that all of the good SEC teams are taken before they have a chance to even look at them.

Also, I am disturbed that all three years featured two SEC teams in the top three, especially since Alabama would lose one game and only drop one spot.  The media (primarily ESPN) needs to stop gushing about one conference, because it really is starting to hurt the game as a whole. 

Of course, this selection of teams could be wildly off base, because the CFP committee will use entirely different standards for selecting teams.  Alabama lost a game in each of the three seasons listed here (all in November), and in two of them, it was to another SEC team that would have made the playoffs.  Perhaps that would have been enough to sway the committee to not include them. 

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