New Year's Six Bowl Games are set

Not a lot of surprises in the New Year's Six. 

Utah dropped out of the projections, and Penn State jumped in.

Peach	1 seed	4 seed
Week 10	#1 Ohio State	#7 Oregon
Week 11	#1 LSU	#6 Oregon
Week 12	#1 LSU	#6 Oregon
Week 13	#1 Ohio State	#5 Alabama
Week 14	#1 Ohio State	#5 Utah
ACTUAL	#1 LSU	#4 Oklahoma

Fiesta	2 seed	3 seed
Week 10	#2 LSU	#5 Clemson
Week 11	#2 Ohio State	#3 Clemson
Week 12	#2 Ohio State	#3 Clemson
Week 13	#2 LSU	#3 Clemson
Week 14	#2 LSU	#3 Clemson
ACTUAL	#2 Ohio State	#3 Clemson

Sugar	SEC	Big 12
Week 10	#3 Alabama	#9 Oklahoma
Week 11	#4 Georgia	#10 Oklahoma
Week 12	#4 Georgia	#10 Oklahoma
Week 13	#4 Georgia	#7 Oklahoma
Week 14	#4 Georgia	#6 Oklahoma
ACTUAL	#5 Georgia	#7 Baylor

Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12
Week 10	#4 Penn State	#8 Utah
Week 11	#8 Minnesota	#7 Utah
Week 12	#8 Penn State	#7 Utah
Week 13	#8 Minnesota	#6 Utah
Week 14	#8 Wisconsin	#13 Oregon
ACTUAL	#8 Wisconsin	#6 Oregon

Orange	ACC	SEC/B1G/ND
Week 10	#19 Wake Forest	#6 Georgia
Week 11	NR Wake Forest	#5 Alabama
Week 12	NR Virginia Tech	#5 Alabama
Week 13	#24 Virginia Tech	#10 Penn State
Week 14	#23 Virginia	#9 Florida
ACTUAL	#24 Virginia	#9 Florida

Cotton	G5	At-large
Week 10	#20 Cincinnati	#10 Florida
Week 11	#17 Cincinnati	#9 Penn State
Week 12	#18 Memphis	#10 Minnesota
Week 13	#18 Memphis	#9 Baylor
Week 14	#17 Memphis	#7 Baylor
ACTUAL	#17 Memphis	#10 Penn State

Final New Year's Six predictions

With the season in the books and the final rankings a few hours out, here's my final predictions for the New Year's Six.

Semifinals (Peach and Fiesta):
-LSU (#1) vs. Oklahoma (#4)
-Ohio State vs. Clemson (2 vs. 3)

Four conference champions means that only the Rose Bowl doesn't need a replacement team for the Pac-12.

Sugar:  Georgia (SEC replacement) vs. Baylor (Big 12 replacement)
Rose:  Wisconsin (Big Ten replacement) vs. Oregon (Pac-12 champ)
Orange:  Virginia (ACC replacement) vs. Florida (highest ranked non-champ/non-replacement out of SEC/Big Ten/ND)
Cotton:  Memphis (#17, G5) vs. Utah or Penn State (highest ranked team not already placed)

I have to hedge my bet a little with the at-large spot, because I don't know exactly how far Utah might drop.  Although I think the losers from the top 10 this weekend (Utah, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Baylor) end up as #5-8.

Why uva is going to the Orange Bowl

There's still some group of VT fans (and possibly Wake Forest fans) who are holding on to hope that #23 UVA will drop out of the rankings after getting blown out by Clemson on Saturday.  By doing so, that will open up the ACC slot in the Orange Bowl to whichever conference member the bowl wants to invite.

I say this as a diehard Virginia Tech fan that hates everything about UVA - Give up on the Orange Bowl, Hokies.

Historically, the committee has not horribly punished teams for losing their conference championship games.  Sure, teams may drop a spot or two, but there hasn't been a drastic drop for most teams.  Probably the biggest championship game loss by a ranked team in the CFP era was 2018 Northwestern losing to Ohio State by a score of 45-24.  They only dropped one spot in the rankings.

But there are a couple of very simple reasons why UVA will not drop out of the rankings.

First, there must be 25 teams in the top 25.  If one falls out, another must take their place.  All of the unranked Power 5 teams are idle during championship weekend.  So, why would the committee suddenly decide that a team who wasn't worthy of the top 25 last week is suddenly worthy next week when that team didn't play?

More importantly, it's a matter of time.  For all of the other rankings, the committee can think about the games on Sunday, meet on Monday and Tuesday, and release the rankings on Tuesday night.  For the final rankings, they watch the championship games together and then have to come up with the final rankings by noon on Sunday, barely 12 hours after all of the games are done.

The simplest solution for the committee is to drop UVA to #24 or #25, move Navy and Oklahoma State up a spot, and then turn their attention to debate over who the fourth team in the semi-finals should be, which is their primary mission.  Why waste time debating yet another team that isn't on their list going into this weekend?

Finally, it's a matter of protecting the interest of their stakeholders.  Dropping UVA out of the rankings can cause harm to the Orange Bowl, which is one of the New Year's Six bowls that the committee is responsible for arranging.  There's already enough ranked teams from the other conferences to fill the contracted New Year's Six bowl slots, and the only at-large spot will have to be filled by a top 10 team.  Therefore, a #25 ranking has absolutely no bearing on the NY6 bowls.  It doesn't even affect the other bowls.

New Year's Six projections - Championship Week

Alabama isn't in the CFP this year, and they're most likely not in the New Year's Six!

There's still a lot in flux at the top of the rankings.

Semifinals (Peach and Fiesta):
-LSU (#2) vs. Clemson (#3)
-Ohio State (#1) vs. Utah (#5)

This arrangement will actually give us four conference champions, and the only bowl that would not need a replacement would be the Sugar for the Big 12.

Sugar:  Georgia (#4, SEC replacement) vs. Oklahoma (#6, Big 12 projected champ)
Rose:  Wisconsin (#8, Big Ten replacement) vs. Oregon (#13, Pac-12 replacement)
Orange:  Virginia (#23, ACC replacement) vs. Florida (#9, highest ranked non-champ/non-replacement out of SEC/Big Ten/ND)
Cotton:  Memphis (#17, G5) vs. Baylor (#7, highest ranked team not already placed)

These are actually some of the weaker projections, as some of those teams will likely move around as they play each other.  More than likely, a Wisconsin loss would drop them below Penn State, sending PSU to the Rose Bowl.  Also, a Baylor loss would drop them out of range for the at-large.

Also, an Oregon win over Utah would keep them in the Rose Bowl, but push Utah down (possibly to the Cotton) and pull the Big 12 champ into the semi-finals, likely putting the loser of the game into the Sugar Bowl.

And now, the week to week comparisons:

Semi-final #1	1 seed	4 seed
Week 10	#1 Ohio State	#7 Oregon
Week 11	#1 LSU	#6 Oregon
Week 12	#1 LSU	#6 Oregon
Week 13	#1 Ohio State	#5 Alabama
Week 14	#1 Ohio State	#5 Utah

Semi-final #2	2 seed	3 seed
Week 10	#2 LSU	#5 Clemson
Week 11	#2 Ohio State	#3 Clemson
Week 12	#2 Ohio State	#3 Clemson
Week 13	#2 LSU	#3 Clemson
Week 14	#2 LSU	#3 Clemson

Sugar	SEC	Big 12
Week 10	#3 Alabama	#9 Oklahoma
Week 11	#4 Georgia	#10 Oklahoma
Week 12	#4 Georgia	#10 Oklahoma
Week 13	#4 Georgia	#7 Oklahoma
Week 14	#4 Georgia	#6 Oklahoma

Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12
Week 10	#4 Penn State	#8 Utah
Week 11	#8 Minnesota	#7 Utah
Week 12	#8 Penn State	#7 Utah
Week 13	#8 Minnesota	#6 Utah
Week 14	#8 Wisconsin	#13 Oregon

Orange	ACC	SEC/B1G/ND
Week 10	#19 Wake Forest	#6 Georgia
Week 11	NR Wake Forest	#5 Alabama
Week 12	NR Virginia Tech	#5 Alabama
Week 13	#24 Virginia Tech	#10 Penn State
Week 14	#23 Virginia	#9 Florida

Cotton	G5	At-large
Week 10	#20 Cincinnati	#10 Florida
Week 11	#17 Cincinnati	#9 Penn State
Week 12	#18 Memphis	#10 Minnesota
Week 13	#18 Memphis	#9 Baylor
Week 14	#17 Memphis	#7 Baylor

Alabama, Virginia Tech, and Penn State dropped out of projections, replaced by Oregon, UVA, and Wisconsin.

Week 14 update - conference championships set

ACC Championship:  Clemson Tigers (8-0) vs. UVA Cavaliers (6-2)
Both clinched with the best record in their division, and I can't believe I typed that.

SEC Championship:  Georgia Bulldogs (7-1) vs. LSU Tigers (8-0)
Both teams clinched with the best record in their division.

Big Ten Championship:  Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (7-2)
Ohio State clinched with the best record in the division.  Wisconsin clinched with the head-to-head tiebreaker over Minnesota.  Ohio State did beat Wisconsin earlier in the season.

Pac-12 Championship:  Oregon Ducks (8-1) vs. Utah Utes (8-1)
Both teams clinched with the best record in their division.

Big 12 Championship:  Oklahoma Sooners (8-1) vs. Baylor Bears (8-1)
These are the teams with the two best records in the conference.  Oklahoma won the first meeting.

New Year's Six Projections - Thanksgiving week

The Peach and Fiesta Bowls are the semi-finals this season, which means that there is only room for one at-large team, who will play the G5 representative in the Cotton Bowl.  This also means that none of the champs who aren't in the CFP will be getting displaced from their regular landing spot.

With LSU and Ohio State flip flopping at #1 and #2, I'm having a hard time keeping Alabama out of the semis based on the current rankings and projections.

Semifinals (Peach and Fiesta):
-LSU (#2) vs. Clemson (#3)
-Ohio State (#1) vs. Alabama (#5)

Two bowls (Sugar with Big 12 and Rose with Pac-12) do not need to find replacements.

Sugar:  Georgia (#4, SEC replacement) vs. Oklahoma (#7, Big 12 projected champ)
Rose:  Minnesota (#8, Big Ten replacement) vs. Utah (#6, Pac-12 projected champ)
Orange:  Virginia Tech (#24, ACC replacement) vs. Penn State (#10, highest ranked non-champ/non-replacement out of SEC/Big Ten/ND)
Cotton:  Memphis (#18, G5) vs. Baylor (#9, highest ranked team not already placed)

And now, the week to week comparisons:

Semi-final #1	1 seed	4 seed
Week 10	#1 Ohio State	#7 Oregon
Week 11	#1 LSU	#6 Oregon
Week 12	#1 LSU	#6 Oregon
Week 13	#1 Ohio State	#5 Alabama
Week 14

Semi-final #2	2 seed	3 seed
Week 10	#2 LSU	#5 Clemson
Week 11	#2 Ohio State	#3 Clemson
Week 12	#2 Ohio State	#3 Clemson
Week 13	#2 LSU	#3 Clemson
Week 14

Sugar	SEC	Big 12
Week 10	#3 Alabama	#9 Oklahoma
Week 11	#4 Georgia	#10 Oklahoma
Week 12	#4 Georgia	#10 Oklahoma
Week 13	#4 Georgia	#7 Oklahoma
Week 14

Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12
Week 10	#4 Penn State	#8 Utah
Week 11	#8 Minnesota	#7 Utah
Week 12	#8 Penn State	#7 Utah
Week 13	#8 Minnesota	#6 Utah
Week 14

Orange	ACC	SEC/B1G/ND
Week 10	#19 Wake Forest	#6 Georgia
Week 11	NR Wake Forest	#5 Alabama
Week 12	NR Virginia Tech	#5 Alabama
Week 13	#24 Virginia Tech	#10 Penn State
Week 14

Cotton	G5	At-large
Week 10	#20 Cincinnati	#10 Florida
Week 11	#17 Cincinnati	#9 Penn State
Week 12	#18 Memphis	#10 Minnesota
Week 13	#18 Memphis	#9 Baylor
Week 14

Oregon dropped out of projections, replaced by Baylor.

Week 13 update

EAT IT PITT.

ACC Coastal gets a divisional championship game on Black Friday.

And the other conferences are doing things too.  Two championship games have been completely set, while the other conferences have one division winner decided.  There are two winner-take-all games, with one other elimination game.

There are 8 or 9 teams fighting for bowl eligibility (the 9th is Missouri who is in the middle of an NCAA appeal).

ACC Coastal Scenarios after Week 13

And then there were two.

After the last several weeks of examining all of the different scenarios, it all comes down to a single winner-take-all game in Lane Stadium North.

VT and UVA are both coming into the final game of the season with a 5-2 record.  Every other team in the Coastal already has a minimum of three conference losses.

The winner on Black Friday will have a 6-2 conference record, which will be the best record in the division.  No tiebreakers are needed.

New Year's Six projections - week 12

Not nearly as much change in the rankings this week.

The Peach and Fiesta Bowls are the semi-finals this season, which means that there is only room for one at-large team, who will play the G5 representative in the Cotton Bowl.  This also means that none of the champs who aren't in the CFP will be getting displaced from their regular landing spot.

Still don't have a second ranked ACC team at this point.  So I'm looking over at the AP poll, so AP #25 VT gets the nod in my projection here.

Still can't go with the actual top four, as #1 and #4 are set up to play in the SEC championship game.

Peach:  LSU (#1) vs. Oregon (#6)
Fiesta:  Ohio State (#2) vs. Clemson (#3)

The only bowl not needing a replacement for their champ is the Sugar for the Big 12.

Sugar:  Georgia (#4, SEC replacement) vs. Oklahoma (#9, Big 12 projected champ)
Rose:  Penn State (#8, Big Ten replacement) vs. Utah (#7, Pac-12 replacement)
Orange:  Virginia Tech (NR, ACC replacement) vs. Alabama (#5, highest ranked non-champ/non-replacement out of SEC/Big Ten/ND)
Cotton:  Memphis (#18, G5) vs. Minnesota (#10, highest ranked team not already placed)

If I wanted to hedge my bets, I would say that the winner of the Pac-12 championship game will go to a semi-final, with the loser in the Rose Bowl.  Right now, I'm projecting Utah vs. Oregon in that match-up.

And now, the week to week comparisons:

Semi-final #1	1 seed	4 seed
Week 10	#1 Ohio State	#7 Oregon
Week 11	#1 LSU	#6 Oregon
Week 12	#1 LSU	#6 Oregon
Week 13
Week 14

Semi-final #2	2 seed	3 seed
Week 10	#2 LSU	#5 Clemson
Week 11	#2 Ohio State	#3 Clemson
Week 12	#2 Ohio State	#3 Clemson
Week 13
Week 14

Sugar	SEC	Big 12
Week 10	#3 Alabama	#9 Oklahoma
Week 11	#4 Georgia	#10 Oklahoma
Week 12	#4 Georgia	#10 Oklahoma
Week 13
Week 14

Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12
Week 10	#4 Penn State	#8 Utah
Week 11	#8 Minnesota	#7 Utah
Week 12	#8 Penn State	#7 Utah
Week 13
Week 14

Orange	ACC	SEC/B1G/ND
Week 10	#19 Wake Forest	#6 Georgia
Week 11	NR Wake Forest	#5 Alabama
Week 12	NR Virginia Tech	#5 Alabama
Week 13
Week 14

Cotton	G5	At-large
Week 10	#20 Cincinnati	#10 Florida
Week 11	#17 Cincinnati	#9 Penn State
Week 12	#18 Memphis	#10 Minnesota
Week 13
Week 14

The only team to drop out of the projections from last week is Florida, replaced by Minnesota.

Week 12 update

Whoa, things are heating up, and the picture is coming into focus.  Let's get straight to the conference races.

ACC Coastal scenarios after week 12

The Coastal race has cleared up tremendously after two dominating performances by Virginia Tech and Syracuse.  Let's see how many scenarios still remain.

The history of the ACC Wheel of Destiny

Each year, we spend so much time figuring out all of the different scenarios possible for the ACC.  However, this year in the Coastal there are still three scenarios where a team can win the division outright with the best record.  I thought I would take a moment and look at the history of the ACC since the divisions were formed in 2005 and see how often a tiebreaker was actually used to determine the division champ after all of the games were said and done.

2005:  Virginia Tech (7-1) vs. Florida State (5-3)
VT had the best record in the Coastal.
Florida State had to use their head-to-head tiebreaker over Boston College.

2006:  Georgia Tech (7-1) vs. Wake Forest (6-2)
Both teams had the best records in their division.

2007:  Virginia Tech (7-1) vs. Boston College (6-2)
Both teams had the best record in their division.  VT was actually undefeated in divisional games, with their only loss coming to Boston College (and later avenged in the title game).

2008:  Virginia Tech (5-3) vs. Boston College (5-3)
VT had to use their head-to-head tiebreaker over GT.
Boston College used a head-to-head tiebreaker over Florida State.

2009:  Georgia Tech (7-1) vs. Clemson (6-2)
Both teams had the best records in their division.

2010:  Virginia Tech (8-0) vs. Florida State (6-2)
Both teams had the best records in their division.

2011:  Virginia Tech (7-1) vs. Clemson (6-2)
Both teams had the best records in their division.  VT had another season of being undefeated in divisional games.  Unfortunately, they were unable to avenge their regular season loss to Clemson.

2012:  Georgia Tech (5-3) vs. Florida State (7-1)
This was probably the most #goacc season in the Coastal ever.  GT, UNC, and Miami were all part of a three way tie.  They had all gone 1-1 against each other, and they all had a 3-2 divisional record.  However, UNC and Miami were not eligible for postseason play, making the tiebreakers unnecessary.
Florida State had to use their head-to-head tiebreaker over Clemson.

2013:  Duke (6-2) vs. Florida State (8-0)
Both teams had the best records in their division.

2014:  Georgia Tech (6-2) vs. Florida State (8-0)
Both teams had the best records in their division.

2015:  North Carolina (8-0) vs. Clemson (8-0)
Don't need tiebreakers when both teams were undefeated in conference play.

2016:  Virginia Tech (6-2) vs. Clemson (7-1)
VT had the best record in the Coastal.
Clemson used the head-to-head tiebreaker over Louisville.

2017:  Miami (7-1) vs. Clemson (7-1)
Both teams had the best records in their division.

2018:  Pitt (6-2) vs. Clemson (8-0)
Both teams had the best records in their division.

In 14 seasons of divisional play, there has only been one instance where the tiebreakers needed to go further than head-to-head, but that was negated by sanctions.  (2012 Coastal)

22 divisional champs had the best record in their division.
5 used head-to-head tiebreakers.

ACC Coastal scenarios during week 12

A quick update on the Coastal scenarios after UNC lost to Pitt on Thursday night.  Pitt avoided elimination by winning, but UNC's loss dropped them out of any potential tie scenarios.

The Commonwealth Cup will not be able to lock into a winner-take-all game thanks to Pitt's win.

New Year's Six projections - week 11

A lot of shaking up in the rankings after the first set came out.  Let's see how the bowls project out.

The Peach and Fiesta Bowls are the semi-finals this season, which means that there is only room for one at-large team, who will play the G5 representative in the Cotton Bowl.  This also means that none of the champs who aren't in the CFP will be getting displaced from their regular landing spot.

Not a single team in the CFP top 25 remained in the same spot that they were in last week.  Everyone either moved up or down.

Projecting this week is a lot tougher than I expected.  Having three SEC teams in the top 5 is being more difficult than usual, especially considering that #1 LSU will likely play #4 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, and already beat #5 Alabama.

The other difficult part of projecting this week is the ACC.  Clemson is the only ranked team.  To get a replacement team for the Orange Bowl, I'm looking at the "others receiving votes" section of the AP poll.  Right now, only Wake Forest, UVA, and VT are in that section, with Wake having a lead.  I feel that will change, as they lost to VT last week and will likely lose to Clemson next week.

Again, I can't go with the actual top four at this point.  I'm going with #1-3 and surprisingly #6.

Peach:  LSU (#1) vs. Oregon (#6)
Fiesta:  Ohio State (#2) vs. Clemson (#3)

Hoping that potential Fiesta Bowl matchup will be a lot more interesting than the last time those teams met in that location.  (And all we need for that is for OSU to score a point.)

The only bowl not needing a replacement for their champ is the Sugar for the Big 12.

Sugar:  Georgia (#4, SEC replacement) vs. Oklahoma (#10, Big 12 projected champ)
Rose:  Minnesota (#8, Big Ten replacement) vs. Utah (#7, Pac-12 replacement)
Orange:  Wake Forest (NR, ACC replacement) vs. Alabama (#5, highest ranked non-champ/non-replacement out of SEC/Big Ten/ND)
Cotton:  Cincinnati (#17, G5) vs. Penn State (#9, highest ranked team not already placed)

The race for that Cotton Bowl spot seems to be picking up steam, as we have Cincy and Memphis back-to-back at #17 and 18, with Boise and Navy coming up at #21 and 23.

Just for comparison sake, here's how the projections have looked week to week.

Semi-final #1	1 seed	4 seed
Week 10	#1 Ohio State	#7 Oregon
Week 11	#1 LSU	#6 Oregon
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14

Semi-final #2	2 seed	3 seed
Week 10	#2 LSU	#5 Clemson
Week 11	#2 Ohio State	#3 Clemson
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14

Sugar	SEC	Big 12
Week 10	#3 Alabama	#9 Oklahoma
Week 11	#4 Georgia	#10 Oklahoma
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14

Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12
Week 10	#4 Penn State	#8 Utah
Week 11	#8 Minnesota	#7 Utah
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14

Orange	ACC	SEC/B1G/ND
Week 10	#19 Wake Forest	#6 Georgia
Week 11	NR Wake Forest	#5 Alabama
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14

Cotton	G5	At-large
Week 10	#20 Cincinnati	#10 Florida
Week 11	#17 Cincinnati	#9 Penn State
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14

The only team to drop out of the projections from last week is Florida, replaced by Minnesota.

ACC Coastal scenarios after week 11

It's that part of the season where the ACC Wheel of Destiny starts to slow down to select a winner. Of course, with three weeks left in the regular season, the Coastal has four out of seven teams still in contention, and 10 games left that can affect the race.

Week 11 update

Things are starting to get a little messy in some of the conference races.  But yet, we actually have a division champion already.

New Year's Six projections - week 10

The first CFP rankings of the year have just been released, and let's make some projections for the New Year's Six bowls.

The Peach and Fiesta Bowls are the semi-finals this season, which means that there is only room for one at-large team, who will play the G5 representative in the Cotton Bowl.  This also means that none of the champs who aren't in the CFP will be getting displaced from their regular landing spot.

Obviously, the final set of bowls will look nothing like this, as this weekend's slate featuring 4 8-0 teams playing each other will likely lead to some major shifts in the rankings.

Coming up with the top four teams is difficult at the moment.  The current top 5 contains teams that will play each other soon.

The top four I will project at this point are Ohio State, Clemson, Oregon, and the LSU/Alabama winner.  This is the same I projected with the AP rankings last week.  It's a drastic change from the CFP rankings, but the rankings have a top four where two of the teams are guaranteed a loss before the season is out.

Peach:  LSU/Alabama winner (#2/3) vs. Clemson (#5)
Fiesta:  Ohio State (#1) vs. Oregon (#7)

The only bowl not needing a replacement for their champ is the Sugar for the Big 12.

Sugar:  LSU/Alabama loser (#2/3) vs. Oklahoma (#9, Big 12 projected champ)
Rose:  Penn State (#4, Big Ten replacement) vs. Utah (#8, Pac-12 replacement)
Orange:  Wake Forest (#19, ACC replacement) vs. Georgia (#6, highest ranked non-champ/non-replacement out of SEC/Big Ten/ND)
Cotton:  Cincinnati (#20, G5) vs. Florida (#10, highest ranked team not already placed)

These projections are very volatile, and I don't expect a lot of them to hold up as teams knock each other down the rankings.

Week 10 wrap up

We're hitting the part of the season where the extra week is really showing.  So many scenarios are one game away from a team clinching or being eliminated, only to be followed up by a bye week or non-conference game.

We have finally remembered about the Championship of Life.

Since Alabama grabbed the Championship of Life at the end of the 2017 season, they sort of sucked the fun out of it.  We actually forgot about it around here, even after Clemson wrestled it away from them in the best national title game of the CFP era.

But now, it's been updated up to this week's coming game.  Click on the link below to see how the Championship of Life has progressed!

http://cfarena.blogspot.com/2017/08/the-championship-of-life.html

early New Year's Six projections

We're still another week away from the committee starting their rankings, but seeing as how I've been easing into football season this year, I thought I'd create a refresher as to what we're looking at for the New Year's Six this year.

The Peach and Fiesta Bowls are the semi-finals this season, which means that there is only room for one at-large team, who will play the G5 representative in the Cotton Bowl.  This also means that none of the champs who aren't in the CFP will be getting displaced from their regular landing spot.

I'm using the latest AP Poll for the rankings and projections.

Of course, as I do this, we have a historic weekend coming up on November 9.  There are 2 games featuring 8-0 teams playing each other (all four teams have a bye this coming weekend).  That means there is a lot of wiggle room in the projections.

Coming up with the top four teams is difficult at the moment.  The current top 5 contains teams that will play each other soon.

The top four I will project at this point are Ohio State, Clemson, Oregon, and the LSU/Alabama winner.

Peach:  Clemson (#4) vs. LSU/Alabama winner (#1/2)
Fiesta:  Ohio State (#3) vs. Oregon (#7)

The only bowl not needing a replacement for their champ is the Sugar for the Big 12.

Sugar:  LSU/Alabama loser (#1/2) vs. Oklahoma (#10)
Rose:  Penn State (#5, Big Ten replacement) vs. Utah (#9, Pac-12 replacement)
Orange:  Wake Forest (#23, ACC replacement) vs. Florida (#6, highest ranked non-champ/non-replacement out of SEC/Big Ten/ND)
Cotton:  SMU (#15, G5) vs. Georgia (#8, highest ranked team not already placed)

These projections are very volatile, and I don't expect a lot of them to hold up as teams knock each other down the rankings. 

Week 9 wrap up

I admit, I didn't watch much this weekend.  With a VT bye week and the last weekend before Halloween, I gotta focus on family stuff.  But man, did the ACC not disappoint.

We have reached the point of the season when the magic number is back.

Week 8 wrap up

The NCAA adopted a new overtime rule this year.  Starting with the 5th OT, teams alternate 2 point attempts.  The first game to utilize this new rule was played in Lane Stadium on October 19, 2019, when the Virginia Tech Hokies beat the cheating Tarheels of North Carolina 43-41 in 6 OTs.

Oh, and the ACC Coastal went into full chaos mode.  And, we're getting close to eliminations.

The Coastal did it again!

Eight weeks might be a record for this division!

2019 Season: Halftime Report

Like Chip, I've spent some time away from this place over the past several months. Not as "busy" as Chip per se, but just not around the blog-o-sphere.

But in any case, it's great to be back - and just in time to share some thoughts on the first half of the 2019 season.

Week 7 wrap up

Getting back into the football groove.  Had some crazy games this weekend, causing some significant shake ups in the conference races.

Week 6 wrap up

We've missed a few weeks, but fortunately those weeks were light on conference action.  Well, compared to late October.  The ACC front loaded a bit to push their new network.

As always in the conference races, we're only counting conference games.

Week 2 wrap up

I know I'm seriously behind, but a busy summer has transformed into a busy fall.

As always in the conference races, we're only counting conference games.

ACC
Atlantic
Controls destiny:
-Clemson (1-0) has a cross-divisional win.
-BC (1-0) cross-divisional win.

Coastal
Controls destiny:
-UVA (1-0) has a tiebreaker over Pitt.
-UNC (1-0) has a tiebreaker over Miami.
-VT (0-1) has a cross-divisional loss.
-GT (0-1) has a cross-divisional loss.

Needs help:
-Pitt (0-1) needs two UVA losses.
-Miami (0-1) needs two UNC losses.

SEC
East
Controls destiny:
-Georgia (1-0) has a tiebreaker over Vanderbilt.

Needs help:
-Vanderbilt (0-1) needs two Georgia losses.

West
Controls destiny:
Ole Miss (1-0) has a tiebreaker over Arkansas.

Needs help:
Arkansas (0-1) needs two Ole Miss losses.

Big Ten
East
Controls destiny:
-Rutgers (0-1) has a cross-divisional loss.

West
Controls destiny:
-Iowa (1-0) has a cross-divisional win.

Pac-12
North
Controls destiny:
-Cal (1-0) has a tiebreaker over Washington.
-Stanford (0-1) has a cross-divisional loss.

Needs help:
-Washington (0-1) needs two Cal losses.

South
Controls destiny:
-USC (1-0) has a cross-divisional win.

Big 12
Yet to play conference games.

Week 1 wrap up

And suddenly, the college football season has begun.

Thanks to a family wedding, I missed out on a lot of week 1 action.  Normally, I'm very anti-wedding during football season, but I had a great time and my team ended up losing anyway, so overall, my Saturday was better than it would have been had I not gone.

Thanks to a new network, the ACC jumped into action early, and 8 of the 14 teams were showcased on the first weekend of ACCN, and all but 2 playing conference games.  The only other conference game came from the SEC East.

ACC
Atlantic
Controls destiny:
-Clemson (1-0) has a cross-divisional win.
-BC (1-0) cross-divisional win.

Coastal
Controls destiny:
-UVA (1-0) has a tiebreaker over Pitt.
-VT (0-1) has a cross-divisional loss.
-GT (0-1) has a cross-divisional loss.

Needs help:
Pitt (0-1) needs two UVA losses.

SEC
East
Controls destiny:
-Georgia (1-0) has a tiebreaker over Vanderbilt.

Needs help:
-Vanderbilt (0-1) needs two Georgia losses.