Friday, October 31, 2014

ACC update: Week 10

With a much closer Thursday night game this week, the ACC Atlantic has gotten down to a three team race.

Louisville (4-3) was eliminated from contention after losing to Florida State (5-0).  Basically, there were only two scenarios for Louisville to have a chance at the top:  either a three way tie with FSU and Clemson (currently 5-1), or somehow BC would win and lose the right games to force a 4 way tie, with everyone at 5-3.  In either scenario, Louisville is on the wrong end of the tiebreakers.

FSU leads at 5-0.  Clemson has an outside chance at 5-1, if FSU can drop two.  BC is just barely hanging on at 2-2.  I'm not sure if one loss by itself will eliminate them, but a loss plus a Clemson or FSU win would.

The Coastal is still eating itself, but should give us some more drama on Saturday.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Saturday OTAs: November 1

These games are available with just an antenna.

11:30 AM
CBS:  Air Force at Army

12:30 PM
ACC Network:  UNC at Miami OR Boston College at Virginia Tech.

3:30 PM
ABC:  TCU at West Virginia OR Purdue at Nebraska
CBS:  Florida vs. Georgia

7:30 PM
Fox:  Stanford at Oregon

8 PM
ABC:  Oklahoma State at Kansas State OR Illinois at Ohio State
CBS:  Notre Dame at Navy

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Games to Watch: Week 10

We're in the thick of the conference races, where teams have already started to be eliminated, while other teams are on the verge of clinching.

Not a lot of commentary, because if you're following the weekly wrapups, you should understand why these games are of interest.

Thursday, October 30
7:30 PM
Florida State at Louisville, ESPN.

Saturday, November 1
Duke at Pitt, ESPNU.

12:30 PM
UNC at Miami, ACC Network.  Two weeks ago, this looked like a battle for the bottom of the Coastal. 

Boston College at VT, ACC Network.  I'm watching, but I doubt many outside of these two fanbases are.  The ACC also doesn't want to release affiliate lists, so check your local listings to find out what game you're getting.

3:30 PM
Florida vs. Georgia, CBS

TCU at West Virginia, ABC/ESPN2

Virginia at Georgia Tech, ESPNU.

4 PM
Kentucky at Missouri, SEC Network

7 PM
Auburn at Ole Miss, ESPN. This should shake up the standings at the top of the SEC and AP Poll.

7:30 PM
Stanford at Oregon, Fox

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Chaos Theory: Week 10

We're down to our final two undefeated teams in the Power 5:  Florida State in the ACC, and Mississippi State in the SEC.

Total chaos only requires two games:

Louisville over FSU (Thursday night, ESPN)
Arkansas over Mississippi State (7:15 PM, ESPN)

Under-the-Radar Games: Week 10

November is upon us, starting Saturday, and it’s crunch time for all of the teams.  Bowl eligibility, Playoff hopes, “New Year’s Six” ambitions, or simply winning a rivalry game are all goals that have yet to be attained.   And with roughly one third of the regular season left to go, this week’s “under the radar” picks are as follows.

Monday, October 27, 2014

Orange Bowl contenders: Week 10

Entering week 10, let's take a look at who might be getting the non-ACC spot in the Orange Bowl.

First, these teams are the eligible teams (SEC, B1G, and Notre Dame):

1 Mississippi State 7-0
3 Alabama 7-1
4 Auburn 6-1
6 Notre Dame 6-1
7 Ole Miss 7-1
8 Michigan State 7-1
9 Georgia 6-1
13 Ohio State 6-1
16 LSU 7-2
17 Nebraska 7-1

If the season continues on its current trajectory, then Mississippi State is probably going to be in the SEC championship game and the CFP.  Michigan State is on track to win the B1G.

Most likely candidates are Notre Dame, Ohio State or Nebraska from the B1G, and the Iron Bowl winner or Georgia from the SEC.

We'll see how this compares to the selection committee on Tuesday night.

Sunday, October 26, 2014

Tale of the tape: #1 vs #2 -- updated

Since Florida State had a bye this past week, both of the top two teams are at 7-0, so maybe it's a little more fair to compare their numbers.

2014 Season Thoughts: End of October

With October now behind us (besides a few Thursday/Friday games...and the reveal of the CFP Committee's first Top 25), and now two thirds of the regular season, it's time to start looking at the home stretch.

Week 9 wrap up

This week, I'm trying a late season total wrap up all in one post.

No one has clinched yet, and we're still at least a week away from working on clinching scenarios.  A few teams have been eliminated.

We're bringing back the magic number this week, which is the number of losses to guarantee elimination.  Within each division (or conference if no divisions), we take the team with the most wins, and add the number of their remaining games to their losses.  To play it safe, we add one.

For example, in the ACC Atlantic, while FSU is leading at 4-0 in conference, Clemson has the most wins with a 5-1 record.  Since they have two games left, we add that to their loss total and come up with three, which is the worst record they can end up with.  We add one to account for tiebreakers. Therefore, any team with 4 or more losses is mathematically eliminated.

Friday, October 24, 2014

Under the Radar Games: Week 9

After a fun trip to Blacksburg (game result notwithstanding), it's time to look at the weekend ahead and find some under-the-radar matchups.

Saturday OTAs: October 25

No cable here!

12:30 PM
ACC Network:  UNC at UVA.

3:30 PM
CBS:  Mississippi State at Kentucky
ABC:  Michigan at Michigan State
Fox:  Texas Tech at TCU

No reverse mirrors or regional games this week.

8 PM
ABC:  Ohio State at Penn State

Fox does not have a primetime game due to Game Four of the World Series.

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Games to Watch: Week 9

On Thursday night, I'll be travelling to Blacksburg to actually see a game in person.  Oddly enough, there's not a lot after that to really catch my attention.  I'll be very interested after the fact as there are several games that are key conference matchups.  I have a feeling this might be one of those weekends where you just keep flip around the channels and happen to land on an interesting game.

Thursday, October 23
7:30 PM
Miami at Virginia Tech, ESPN.  Lane Stadium.  Thursday night.  A hated rival dating back over 20 years and two conferences.  It's the first Thursday night game in Lane Stadium in two years.  I've had this game circled on my calendar since the schedule came out.

Friday, October 24
10 PM
Oregon at Cal, Fox Sports 1.  A Pac-12 North game to shake up the standings.

Saturday, October 25
12:30 PM
UNC at UVA, ACC Network.  Coach Visor vs. TimeCop.  More Coastal craziness.

3:30 PM
Mississippi State at Kentucky, CBS.  I think both of these teams are surprisingly folks this year.

Michigan at Michigan State, ABC.  A key B1G East matchup.

4 PM
Vanderbilt at Missouri, SEC Network.  This could be the game that finally eliminates Vandy from everything.

7:15 PM
Ole Miss at LSU, ESPN. I have a feeling this one could be interesting.

Chaos Theory: Week 9

There are only three Power 5 teams still undefeated entering week 9 of the season.

ACC:  Florida State
SEC:  Ole Miss, Mississippi State
Big 12:  none
Pac-12:  none
B1G:  none

Baylor and Notre Dame lost in week 8, leaving us with only two conferences providing undefeated teams.

Since Ole Miss and Mississippi State play each other in November, we know that we can only have a maximum of 2 undefeated teams at the end of the year.

Total chaos this week requires:

Kentucky over Mississippi State (3:30 PM, CBS)
LSU over Ole Miss (7:15, ESPN)

Florida State is off this week in preparation of a Thursday night game on October 30.

Tale of the tape: #1 vs. #2

A rundown of how the resume of #1 Mississippi State stacks up against #2 Florida State.

Monday, October 20, 2014

NCAA Online: 10/20/14

A few interesting stories have hit the web about college football.

Yahoo:  Jameis Winston is going pro.  Sounds like a no brainer.
Yahoo:  Archie Manning steps back from the CFP committee.  Seems like this committee idea isn't quite panning out correctly.

Orange Bowl front runners

Now that FSU-ND is in the past, it makes it a little clearer to try to predict the Orange Bowl, specifically the non-ACC slot.  The biggest hurdle prior to that game was not knowing which team was tracking towards the CFP.

Now, we're still a little complicated based on the SEC West having 4 of the top 5 teams, so there will be a lot of shuffling in the polls before the season is done.

Sunday, October 19, 2014

Week 8 wrap up

I'm still debating which version of the weekly wrap up I prefer.  Individual posts, or one massive one for everyone?  The problem with the massive post is that usually one conference is done with play early enough on Saturday to be done before I go to bed, but the Pac-12 is still playing into the wee hours of Sunday.

SEC Roller Coaster: Week 8

Teams have shifted around in the "needs help" categories, but there wasn't too much separation by the destiny controllers this week.  That was largely due to most teams either playing across divisions or out of conference.

Big 12 Roulette: Week 8

Big 12
Controls destiny:
-Kansas State (3-0) has tiebreakers over Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State.
-West Virginia (3-1) has tiebreakers over Kansas, Texas Tech, and Baylor.  They lost to Oklahoma

Needs help:
-Baylor (3-1) needs a West Virginia loss.   They have tiebreakers over Iowa State, Texas, and TCU.
-TCU (2-1) needs a Baylor loss.  They have tiebreakers over Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
-Oklahoma State (3-1) needs 2 K-State losses.  They have tiebreakers over Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Kansas.
-Oklahoma (2-2) needs a TCU loss, but has tiebreakers over West Virginia and Texas.
-Texas (2-2) has a tiebreaker over Kansas, but lost to Baylor and Oklahoma.

Just start winning:
-Texas Tech (1-3) has lost to Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and West Virginia.  They have a tiebreaker over Kansas.
-Kansas (0-4) has lost to Texas, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech.
-Iowa State (0-4) has lost to Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Texas.

Bowl eligible:  Baylor
One win away:  Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Kansas State, West Virginia, TCU

Saturday, October 18, 2014

ACC Wheel of Destiny: Week 8

The Coastal is eating itself, as usual, and the Atlantic has officially eliminated someone!

Friday, October 17, 2014

Saturday OTAs: October 18

Let's pretend it's 1990 again and you only have access to regular, non-cable TV channels.

ACC Network (syndicated):  UVA at Duke

ABC:  UCLA at California OR Rutgers at Ohio State
CBS:  Texas A&M at Alabama

ABC:  Notre Dame at Florida State

FOX is keeping their schedule open for a possible MLB postseason game.

Thursday, October 16, 2014

New sidebar link

We've added a new link over on the right side of the screen, in the Links & Info section.  It's the main page for 506 Sports, a site that keeps track of TV schedules and listings for football at both the college and pro level.  I like using the site to get an idea of what NFL game I'll be getting on a particular Sunday, but it also has a complete listing of college games, including announcers and links to affiliates or coverage maps if necessary.

If you're reading this on the mobile version, you have to switch to Web version to see the sidebars.

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Playoff hesitation

We're still in the first season of the Playoff era.  We haven't even gotten the first set of rankings from the committee.

And yet, I'm already feeling some hesitation about this new system.  No, I'm not saying we need to go back to the BCS.  I never liked the "top 2" idea.  But I'm not sure that I like what I've been hearing so far in regards to how the playoffs will be selected.

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Under the Radar Games: Week 8

As the second half of the season begins for most teams, the story of the 2014 season has already begun to take shape. So much power in the state of Mississippi, improvements throughout several programs with "hot seat" coaches, and very few undefeated teams in only mid-October. As a battle between two of them commences this Saturday in Tallahassee, here are a handful of games that could find themselves have an impact in some less obvious ways.

Games to Watch: Week 8

We've got a new #1.  We're down to 5 undefeated Power 5 teams, with at least one going down this week.  And we could be seeing some teams get the knockout blow.

Thursday, October 16
7:30 PM
Virginia Tech at Pitt, ESPN.  C'mon, Hokies, let's break the curse of Heinz Field, and get the win to stay alive in the ACC Coastal.

Saturday, October 18
Baylor at West Virginia, Fox Sports 1.  Can Baylor stay undefeated, or is this a chaos theory game?

Kansas State at Oklahoma, ESPN.  Both of these Big 12 games could see several teams move from the "control destiny" category to "needs help" or vice versa.

12:30 PM
UVA at Duke, ACC Network.  Can you believe this game is for sole possession of the lead in the ACC Coastal?

3:30 PM
Texas A&M at Alabama, CBS.  Forget about a battle for the top of the division, these two teams just want to stay alive.

Rutgers at Ohio State, ABC/ESPN2.  Would you believe this is game is a battle for control in the B1G East?  (That joke was unintentional.)

Clemson at Boston College, ESPNU.  Another battle to be the team in the ACC Atlantic that can step up if FSU stumbles.

4 PM
Oklahoma State at TCU, Fox Sports 1.  Refer to the noon Big 12 games.

7 PM
Tennessee at Ole Miss, ESPN.  Could this be the ESPN Primetime upset special?  Chaos theory game.

8 PM
Notre Dame at Florida State, ABC.  An undefeated team goes down.

Monday, October 13, 2014

Chaos Theory: Week 8

There are only five Power 5 teams still undefeated entering week 8 of the season.

ACC:  Florida State
SEC:  Ole Miss, Mississippi State
Big 12:  Baylor
Independent:  Notre Dame
Pac-12:  none
B1G:  none

TCU, Auburn, Georgia Tech, and Arizona all fell in week 7, thinning the herd.

With four of these teams playing each other by the end of the year, we know that we won't have more than 3 undefeated teams at the end of the season.

Notre Dame plays Florida State on Saturday (8 PM, ABC), eliminating one team right away.

Total chaos this week requires:

Tennessee over Ole Miss (7 PM, ESPN)
West Virginia over Baylor (noon, FS1)

Mississippi State has a bye.

Marshall of Conference USA is still undefeated, but is mainly just fighting for the Group of 5 spot in the New Year's bowls.

Sunday, October 12, 2014

The number conferences: Week 7

Somehow, these three conferences have yet to get to the meat of their schedule.

SEC Roller Coaster: Week 7

Power has definitely shifted to the state of Mississippi.  I'm sorry for doubting them.  At least CBS got back on track with the right poll, but I'm sure that only lasts as long as the AP has better SEC rankings than the coaches.

Saturday, October 11, 2014

ACC Wheel of Destiny: Week 7

It was kind of a light week for the ACC, with several teams on a bye or playing out of conference.  Still, we've seen some shifts in the playing field on both sides of the conference.  We've also added the "just start winning" category to the ACC.

Friday, October 10, 2014

Saturday OTAs: October 11

Trying something a little different here.  Let's say you're stuck somewhere without cable, and all you have is an over-the-air antenna for TV purposes.  Here's a list of games that you can pick up on Saturday.

ABC:  Texas vs. Oklahoma
CBS:  Georgia at Missouri

ACC Network:  Duke at Georgia Tech (syndicated - check out the Games to Watch post for an affiliates link)

ABC:  TCU at Baylor OR Michigan State at Purdue
CBS:  Auburn at Mississippi State
NBC:  North Carolina at Notre Dame
FOX:  Oregon at UCLA

Due to postseason baseball (FOX) and the NASCAR race (ABC), there is no college football in primetime on any network.

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Games to Watch: Week 7

After a week of upsets, all bets are off for the rest of the season.  Plus, after only have one team trying for bowl eligibility (and missing), we have 11 teams who can earn a chance for a postseason this week.

Saturday, October 11
Florida State at Syracuse, ESPN.  This could be the best vs. the worst of the ACC Atlantic.  But, if the upset streak continues here, then we are in full #goacc chaos and madness.

Texas vs. Oklahoma, ABC.  A key game for Big 12 separation.

Georgia at Missouri, CBS.  Someone will get knocked out of destiny control here.

12:30 PM
Duke at Georgia Tech, ACC Network.  Another pivotal Coastal game that the entire division will be watching.

3:30 PM
Auburn at Mississippi State, CBS.  It's #2 vs #3, and a chance for separation in the SEC West and AP Poll.

TCU at Baylor, ABC/ESPN2.  More Big 12 action between two teams that are leading the conference.

Louisville at Clemson, ESPNU.  The battle to be the team in the ACC Atlantic that can step up if FSU stumbles.

Oregon at UCLA, Fox.  Possibly a preview of the Pac-12 championship game, or the game that knocks one of these teams out of it.

6 PM
Alabama at Arkansas, ESPN.  Both teams need this game to stay alive in the SEC West.

9 PM
Ole Miss at Texas A&M, ESPN.  This game will affect everyone's chances in the division.

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Under the Radar Games: Week 7

All I can say about last weekend is: WOW! With so much focus this coming weekend on dealing with the aftermath of all of Week 6's upsets, here are 5 games that could still find themselves important in some way or another.

Monday, October 6, 2014

Chaos Theory: October 2014

There are only nine FBS teams still undefeated entering week 7 of the season.

ACC:  Florida State and Georgia Tech
SEC:  Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi State
Big 12:  TCU and Baylor
Pac-12:  Arizona
Independent:  Notre Dame
B1G:  none!

With each conference's setup, it is impossible for more than one undefeated team to come out of any given conference.  Right away, we know that four of those nine teams won't make it to December undefeated.

In fact, we already know that two of those teams won't make it to Sunday undefeated.  TCU and Baylor play each other, as do Auburn and Mississippi State.

Plus, Florida State will play Notre Dame the following week.

All this guarantees that by October 19, we will only have a maximum of six undefeated teams.

And wouldn't it be fun if there are no undefeated teams in this first year of the playoffs?

If you want to see total chaos, here's who to root for:

Syracuse over Florida State (noon, ESPN)
Duke over Georgia Tech (12:30, ACC Network)
UNC over Notre Dame (3:30, NBC)
Texas A&M over Ole Miss (9, ESPN)
USC over Arizona (10:30, ESPN2)

The other undefeated teams play each other at 3:30:
Auburn at Mississippi State (CBS)
TCU at Baylor (ABC/ESPN2)

Sunday, October 5, 2014

Week 6 wrap-up: The number conferences

The conferences with numbers in their name don't have as many convoluted scenarios as the ACC and SEC, mainly due to later scheduled conference games.  Although, the Pac-12 seems to be wanting to come up with their own Wheel of Destiny, as everyone is slowly beating everyone else.

SEC Roller Coaster: Week 6

Wow, SEC, welcome to ACC-style football.  This year is shaping up to be a roller coaster.  Overall, this college football season is not as insane as 2007, but the SEC certainly seems to be turning itself upside down.  Just take a look at the 2011 standings, and you'll see that the SEC West is almost inverted of how it was that year.

Unlike the ACC, where there are a few teams yet to win in conference that still have a chance, all of the no-win SEC teams have dug themselves into a multiple loss hole.  That's why I've created the third category of "win first".  Most of the scenarios for those teams are likely to be rendered pointless quickly if they keep up their losing ways.

And CBS, stop using the coaches' poll to make your matchup look better.

ACC Wheel of Destiny: Week 6

Six weeks in, and that means bowl eligibility starts to become a factor.  With all teams finally starting conference play, everyone has had a spin on the Wheel of Destiny, and teams are finally starting to separate.

We're also able to start looking at a few scenarios more in depth.

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Games to Watch: Week 6

All right, conference races are in full swing!  We can finally get some separation in the conferences.

Friday, October 3
7 PM
Louisville at Syracuse, ESPN.  It's the final ACC team to start conference play.

Saturday, October 4
Texas A&M at Mississippi State, ESPN.  If Texas A&M wins, they will become the first bowl eligible team of 2014.

Ohio State at Maryland, ABC.  It's nice to see conference matchups across the board.

Florida at Tennessee, SEC Network.  Both teams have one conference loss.  Adding a second would put them in a deep hole.

12:30 PM
Virginia Tech at North Carolina, ACC Network.  The Hokies are looking to rebound from the GT loss and take steps towards their goal of winning the ACC.  UNC has given up 70 and 50 points in their last two games, but scoring 41 and 35.  This game has potential to be a sloppy shootout.

3:30 PM
Wake Forest at Florida State, ABC.  Just another piece of the Atlantic puzzle.

NC State at Clemson, ESPNU.  NC State showed a lot more life last week than anyone expected.  With Clemson's tendency for inconsistency, this could be a game.

4 PM
Vanderbilt at Georgia, SEC Network.  If Vanderbilt loses this one, then they might as well call it a season.

7 PM
LSU at Auburn, ESPN.  A key battle in the SEC West.  Also, this should be the Nessler/Blackledge game.

7:30 PM
Miami at Georgia Tech, ESPN2.  It's a battle for the top of the ACC Coastal.

Pitt at UVA, RSN.  Believe it or not, this game is another battle for control in the ACC Coastal.

8 PM
Nebraska at Michigan State, ABC.  B1G action.