New Year's Six Projections - Thanksgiving week

The Peach and Fiesta Bowls are the semi-finals this season, which means that there is only room for one at-large team, who will play the G5 representative in the Cotton Bowl.  This also means that none of the champs who aren't in the CFP will be getting displaced from their regular landing spot.

With LSU and Ohio State flip flopping at #1 and #2, I'm having a hard time keeping Alabama out of the semis based on the current rankings and projections.

Semifinals (Peach and Fiesta):
-LSU (#2) vs. Clemson (#3)
-Ohio State (#1) vs. Alabama (#5)

Two bowls (Sugar with Big 12 and Rose with Pac-12) do not need to find replacements.

Sugar:  Georgia (#4, SEC replacement) vs. Oklahoma (#7, Big 12 projected champ)
Rose:  Minnesota (#8, Big Ten replacement) vs. Utah (#6, Pac-12 projected champ)
Orange:  Virginia Tech (#24, ACC replacement) vs. Penn State (#10, highest ranked non-champ/non-replacement out of SEC/Big Ten/ND)
Cotton:  Memphis (#18, G5) vs. Baylor (#9, highest ranked team not already placed)

And now, the week to week comparisons:

Semi-final #1	1 seed	4 seed
Week 10	#1 Ohio State	#7 Oregon
Week 11	#1 LSU	#6 Oregon
Week 12	#1 LSU	#6 Oregon
Week 13	#1 Ohio State	#5 Alabama
Week 14

Semi-final #2	2 seed	3 seed
Week 10	#2 LSU	#5 Clemson
Week 11	#2 Ohio State	#3 Clemson
Week 12	#2 Ohio State	#3 Clemson
Week 13	#2 LSU	#3 Clemson
Week 14

Sugar	SEC	Big 12
Week 10	#3 Alabama	#9 Oklahoma
Week 11	#4 Georgia	#10 Oklahoma
Week 12	#4 Georgia	#10 Oklahoma
Week 13	#4 Georgia	#7 Oklahoma
Week 14

Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12
Week 10	#4 Penn State	#8 Utah
Week 11	#8 Minnesota	#7 Utah
Week 12	#8 Penn State	#7 Utah
Week 13	#8 Minnesota	#6 Utah
Week 14

Orange	ACC	SEC/B1G/ND
Week 10	#19 Wake Forest	#6 Georgia
Week 11	NR Wake Forest	#5 Alabama
Week 12	NR Virginia Tech	#5 Alabama
Week 13	#24 Virginia Tech	#10 Penn State
Week 14

Cotton	G5	At-large
Week 10	#20 Cincinnati	#10 Florida
Week 11	#17 Cincinnati	#9 Penn State
Week 12	#18 Memphis	#10 Minnesota
Week 13	#18 Memphis	#9 Baylor
Week 14

Oregon dropped out of projections, replaced by Baylor.

Week 13 update

EAT IT PITT.

ACC Coastal gets a divisional championship game on Black Friday.

And the other conferences are doing things too.  Two championship games have been completely set, while the other conferences have one division winner decided.  There are two winner-take-all games, with one other elimination game.

There are 8 or 9 teams fighting for bowl eligibility (the 9th is Missouri who is in the middle of an NCAA appeal).

ACC Coastal Scenarios after Week 13

And then there were two.

After the last several weeks of examining all of the different scenarios, it all comes down to a single winner-take-all game in Lane Stadium North.

VT and UVA are both coming into the final game of the season with a 5-2 record.  Every other team in the Coastal already has a minimum of three conference losses.

The winner on Black Friday will have a 6-2 conference record, which will be the best record in the division.  No tiebreakers are needed.

New Year's Six projections - week 12

Not nearly as much change in the rankings this week.

The Peach and Fiesta Bowls are the semi-finals this season, which means that there is only room for one at-large team, who will play the G5 representative in the Cotton Bowl.  This also means that none of the champs who aren't in the CFP will be getting displaced from their regular landing spot.

Still don't have a second ranked ACC team at this point.  So I'm looking over at the AP poll, so AP #25 VT gets the nod in my projection here.

Still can't go with the actual top four, as #1 and #4 are set up to play in the SEC championship game.

Peach:  LSU (#1) vs. Oregon (#6)
Fiesta:  Ohio State (#2) vs. Clemson (#3)

The only bowl not needing a replacement for their champ is the Sugar for the Big 12.

Sugar:  Georgia (#4, SEC replacement) vs. Oklahoma (#9, Big 12 projected champ)
Rose:  Penn State (#8, Big Ten replacement) vs. Utah (#7, Pac-12 replacement)
Orange:  Virginia Tech (NR, ACC replacement) vs. Alabama (#5, highest ranked non-champ/non-replacement out of SEC/Big Ten/ND)
Cotton:  Memphis (#18, G5) vs. Minnesota (#10, highest ranked team not already placed)

If I wanted to hedge my bets, I would say that the winner of the Pac-12 championship game will go to a semi-final, with the loser in the Rose Bowl.  Right now, I'm projecting Utah vs. Oregon in that match-up.

And now, the week to week comparisons:

Semi-final #1	1 seed	4 seed
Week 10	#1 Ohio State	#7 Oregon
Week 11	#1 LSU	#6 Oregon
Week 12	#1 LSU	#6 Oregon
Week 13
Week 14

Semi-final #2	2 seed	3 seed
Week 10	#2 LSU	#5 Clemson
Week 11	#2 Ohio State	#3 Clemson
Week 12	#2 Ohio State	#3 Clemson
Week 13
Week 14

Sugar	SEC	Big 12
Week 10	#3 Alabama	#9 Oklahoma
Week 11	#4 Georgia	#10 Oklahoma
Week 12	#4 Georgia	#10 Oklahoma
Week 13
Week 14

Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12
Week 10	#4 Penn State	#8 Utah
Week 11	#8 Minnesota	#7 Utah
Week 12	#8 Penn State	#7 Utah
Week 13
Week 14

Orange	ACC	SEC/B1G/ND
Week 10	#19 Wake Forest	#6 Georgia
Week 11	NR Wake Forest	#5 Alabama
Week 12	NR Virginia Tech	#5 Alabama
Week 13
Week 14

Cotton	G5	At-large
Week 10	#20 Cincinnati	#10 Florida
Week 11	#17 Cincinnati	#9 Penn State
Week 12	#18 Memphis	#10 Minnesota
Week 13
Week 14

The only team to drop out of the projections from last week is Florida, replaced by Minnesota.

Week 12 update

Whoa, things are heating up, and the picture is coming into focus.  Let's get straight to the conference races.

ACC Coastal scenarios after week 12

The Coastal race has cleared up tremendously after two dominating performances by Virginia Tech and Syracuse.  Let's see how many scenarios still remain.

The history of the ACC Wheel of Destiny

Each year, we spend so much time figuring out all of the different scenarios possible for the ACC.  However, this year in the Coastal there are still three scenarios where a team can win the division outright with the best record.  I thought I would take a moment and look at the history of the ACC since the divisions were formed in 2005 and see how often a tiebreaker was actually used to determine the division champ after all of the games were said and done.

2005:  Virginia Tech (7-1) vs. Florida State (5-3)
VT had the best record in the Coastal.
Florida State had to use their head-to-head tiebreaker over Boston College.

2006:  Georgia Tech (7-1) vs. Wake Forest (6-2)
Both teams had the best records in their division.

2007:  Virginia Tech (7-1) vs. Boston College (6-2)
Both teams had the best record in their division.  VT was actually undefeated in divisional games, with their only loss coming to Boston College (and later avenged in the title game).

2008:  Virginia Tech (5-3) vs. Boston College (5-3)
VT had to use their head-to-head tiebreaker over GT.
Boston College used a head-to-head tiebreaker over Florida State.

2009:  Georgia Tech (7-1) vs. Clemson (6-2)
Both teams had the best records in their division.

2010:  Virginia Tech (8-0) vs. Florida State (6-2)
Both teams had the best records in their division.

2011:  Virginia Tech (7-1) vs. Clemson (6-2)
Both teams had the best records in their division.  VT had another season of being undefeated in divisional games.  Unfortunately, they were unable to avenge their regular season loss to Clemson.

2012:  Georgia Tech (5-3) vs. Florida State (7-1)
This was probably the most #goacc season in the Coastal ever.  GT, UNC, and Miami were all part of a three way tie.  They had all gone 1-1 against each other, and they all had a 3-2 divisional record.  However, UNC and Miami were not eligible for postseason play, making the tiebreakers unnecessary.
Florida State had to use their head-to-head tiebreaker over Clemson.

2013:  Duke (6-2) vs. Florida State (8-0)
Both teams had the best records in their division.

2014:  Georgia Tech (6-2) vs. Florida State (8-0)
Both teams had the best records in their division.

2015:  North Carolina (8-0) vs. Clemson (8-0)
Don't need tiebreakers when both teams were undefeated in conference play.

2016:  Virginia Tech (6-2) vs. Clemson (7-1)
VT had the best record in the Coastal.
Clemson used the head-to-head tiebreaker over Louisville.

2017:  Miami (7-1) vs. Clemson (7-1)
Both teams had the best records in their division.

2018:  Pitt (6-2) vs. Clemson (8-0)
Both teams had the best records in their division.

In 14 seasons of divisional play, there has only been one instance where the tiebreakers needed to go further than head-to-head, but that was negated by sanctions.  (2012 Coastal)

22 divisional champs had the best record in their division.
5 used head-to-head tiebreakers.

ACC Coastal scenarios during week 12

A quick update on the Coastal scenarios after UNC lost to Pitt on Thursday night.  Pitt avoided elimination by winning, but UNC's loss dropped them out of any potential tie scenarios.

The Commonwealth Cup will not be able to lock into a winner-take-all game thanks to Pitt's win.

New Year's Six projections - week 11

A lot of shaking up in the rankings after the first set came out.  Let's see how the bowls project out.

The Peach and Fiesta Bowls are the semi-finals this season, which means that there is only room for one at-large team, who will play the G5 representative in the Cotton Bowl.  This also means that none of the champs who aren't in the CFP will be getting displaced from their regular landing spot.

Not a single team in the CFP top 25 remained in the same spot that they were in last week.  Everyone either moved up or down.

Projecting this week is a lot tougher than I expected.  Having three SEC teams in the top 5 is being more difficult than usual, especially considering that #1 LSU will likely play #4 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, and already beat #5 Alabama.

The other difficult part of projecting this week is the ACC.  Clemson is the only ranked team.  To get a replacement team for the Orange Bowl, I'm looking at the "others receiving votes" section of the AP poll.  Right now, only Wake Forest, UVA, and VT are in that section, with Wake having a lead.  I feel that will change, as they lost to VT last week and will likely lose to Clemson next week.

Again, I can't go with the actual top four at this point.  I'm going with #1-3 and surprisingly #6.

Peach:  LSU (#1) vs. Oregon (#6)
Fiesta:  Ohio State (#2) vs. Clemson (#3)

Hoping that potential Fiesta Bowl matchup will be a lot more interesting than the last time those teams met in that location.  (And all we need for that is for OSU to score a point.)

The only bowl not needing a replacement for their champ is the Sugar for the Big 12.

Sugar:  Georgia (#4, SEC replacement) vs. Oklahoma (#10, Big 12 projected champ)
Rose:  Minnesota (#8, Big Ten replacement) vs. Utah (#7, Pac-12 replacement)
Orange:  Wake Forest (NR, ACC replacement) vs. Alabama (#5, highest ranked non-champ/non-replacement out of SEC/Big Ten/ND)
Cotton:  Cincinnati (#17, G5) vs. Penn State (#9, highest ranked team not already placed)

The race for that Cotton Bowl spot seems to be picking up steam, as we have Cincy and Memphis back-to-back at #17 and 18, with Boise and Navy coming up at #21 and 23.

Just for comparison sake, here's how the projections have looked week to week.

Semi-final #1	1 seed	4 seed
Week 10	#1 Ohio State	#7 Oregon
Week 11	#1 LSU	#6 Oregon
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14

Semi-final #2	2 seed	3 seed
Week 10	#2 LSU	#5 Clemson
Week 11	#2 Ohio State	#3 Clemson
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14

Sugar	SEC	Big 12
Week 10	#3 Alabama	#9 Oklahoma
Week 11	#4 Georgia	#10 Oklahoma
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14

Rose	Big Ten	Pac-12
Week 10	#4 Penn State	#8 Utah
Week 11	#8 Minnesota	#7 Utah
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14

Orange	ACC	SEC/B1G/ND
Week 10	#19 Wake Forest	#6 Georgia
Week 11	NR Wake Forest	#5 Alabama
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14

Cotton	G5	At-large
Week 10	#20 Cincinnati	#10 Florida
Week 11	#17 Cincinnati	#9 Penn State
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14

The only team to drop out of the projections from last week is Florida, replaced by Minnesota.

ACC Coastal scenarios after week 11

It's that part of the season where the ACC Wheel of Destiny starts to slow down to select a winner. Of course, with three weeks left in the regular season, the Coastal has four out of seven teams still in contention, and 10 games left that can affect the race.

Week 11 update

Things are starting to get a little messy in some of the conference races.  But yet, we actually have a division champion already.

New Year's Six projections - week 10

The first CFP rankings of the year have just been released, and let's make some projections for the New Year's Six bowls.

The Peach and Fiesta Bowls are the semi-finals this season, which means that there is only room for one at-large team, who will play the G5 representative in the Cotton Bowl.  This also means that none of the champs who aren't in the CFP will be getting displaced from their regular landing spot.

Obviously, the final set of bowls will look nothing like this, as this weekend's slate featuring 4 8-0 teams playing each other will likely lead to some major shifts in the rankings.

Coming up with the top four teams is difficult at the moment.  The current top 5 contains teams that will play each other soon.

The top four I will project at this point are Ohio State, Clemson, Oregon, and the LSU/Alabama winner.  This is the same I projected with the AP rankings last week.  It's a drastic change from the CFP rankings, but the rankings have a top four where two of the teams are guaranteed a loss before the season is out.

Peach:  LSU/Alabama winner (#2/3) vs. Clemson (#5)
Fiesta:  Ohio State (#1) vs. Oregon (#7)

The only bowl not needing a replacement for their champ is the Sugar for the Big 12.

Sugar:  LSU/Alabama loser (#2/3) vs. Oklahoma (#9, Big 12 projected champ)
Rose:  Penn State (#4, Big Ten replacement) vs. Utah (#8, Pac-12 replacement)
Orange:  Wake Forest (#19, ACC replacement) vs. Georgia (#6, highest ranked non-champ/non-replacement out of SEC/Big Ten/ND)
Cotton:  Cincinnati (#20, G5) vs. Florida (#10, highest ranked team not already placed)

These projections are very volatile, and I don't expect a lot of them to hold up as teams knock each other down the rankings.

Week 10 wrap up

We're hitting the part of the season where the extra week is really showing.  So many scenarios are one game away from a team clinching or being eliminated, only to be followed up by a bye week or non-conference game.