Even though we have a four team playoff coming next year, I think there's a fairly easy way to ratchet the excitement up with only minimal expansion.
Now remember that there is a difference between "best team" and "champion", and we're looking for champions.
Let's limit the playoffs to conference champions only. We'll take our five power conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC), and then the highest ranked champion from the "Group of 5".
This might encourage the Big 12 to finally get two more teams and get their conference championship game back, because all of the conference championship games would become de facto opening round playoff games.
And come on, we all know that the playoffs are going to expand at some point.
Saturday, December 21, 2013
Wednesday, December 11, 2013
CFP Primer: The Orange Bowl
Starting in the 2014 season, as the College Football Playoffs replace the BCS, the major bowls are adjusting their tie-ins.
The Orange Bowl is still the destination for the ACC champion. If the ACC champion is in the semi-finals, then another ACC team will replace them in the Orange Bowl, unless the Orange Bowl is a semi-final.
For example, if we use the 2013 season, Florida State is the ACC champ, but will play for the national title. If the Orange Bowl is not hosting a semi-final game, they will choose a replacement ACC team, as they did with Clemson. However, if the Orange Bowl is a semi-final game, Clemson would not be guaranteed a spot in one of the other CFP spotlight bowls. If FSU were not playing for the national title, and the Orange Bowl was a semi-final, then FSU would be guaranteed a spot in another CFP bowl.
But what about the opponent? The Orange Bowl will select the highest ranked team of the SEC, Big Ten, or Notre Dame that is not already in the semi-finals, Rose Bowl, or Sugar Bowl.
Here's how they will determine that second team. First, take the primary top 25 poll that will be used to determine CFP rankings.
For our example here, we're using the 2012 BCS rankings. Obviously, we will not have BCS rankings in the future, but that's all we have now. Also, 2012 had a better mix of Big Ten and SEC teams in the polls, unlike 2013, where there were only two Big Ten teams, and neither would have been eligible for the Orange Bowl.
In 2012, Florida State was the ACC champ, and would not have been in the playoffs, so let's figure out who they would play.
Step 1: Cross off any teams not in the SEC or Big Ten. If Notre Dame is on the list, leave them on too.
1 Notre Dame 12-0
2 Alabama 12-1
3 Florida 11-1
4 Oregon 11-1
5 Kansas State 11-1
6 Stanford 11-2
7 Georgia 11-2
8 LSU 10-2
9 Texas A&M 10-2
10 South Carolina 10-2
11 Oklahoma 10-2
12 Florida State 11-2
13 Oregon State 9-3
14 Clemson 10-2
15 Northern Illinois 12-1
16 Nebraska 10-3
17 UCLA 9-4
18 Michigan 8-4
19 Boise State 10-2
20 Northwestern 9-3
21 Louisville 10-2
22 Utah State 10-2
23 Texas 8-4
24 San Jose State 10-2
25 Kent State 11-2
Step 2: Cross off the Big Ten and SEC conference champs. In this particular year, Wisconsin actually won the Big Ten, but was unranked, so they can't be crossed off the list.
1 Notre Dame 12-0
2 Alabama 12-1
3 Florida 11-1
4 Oregon 11-1
5 Kansas State 11-1
6 Stanford 11-2
7 Georgia 11-2
8 LSU 10-2
9 Texas A&M 10-2
10 South Carolina 10-2
11 Oklahoma 10-2
12 Florida State 11-2
13 Oregon State 9-3
14 Clemson 10-2
15 Northern Illinois 12-1
16 Nebraska 10-3
17 UCLA 9-4
18 Michigan 8-4
19 Boise State 10-2
20 Northwestern 9-3
21 Louisville 10-2
22 Utah State 10-2
23 Texas 8-4
24 San Jose State 10-2
25 Kent State 11-2
Step 3: Cross off the teams in the semi-finals, most likely just #1-4. Yes, in this example, the committee could decide to not put Florida in, and would choose another team, but for our purposes, we're sticking with just #1-4, even though two of those teams were eliminated in previous steps.
1 Notre Dame 12-0
2 Alabama 12-1
3 Florida 11-1
4 Oregon 11-1
5 Kansas State 11-1
6 Stanford 11-2
7 Georgia 11-2
8 LSU 10-2
9 Texas A&M 10-2
10 South Carolina 10-2
11 Oklahoma 10-2
12 Florida State 11-2
13 Oregon State 9-3
14 Clemson 10-2
15 Northern Illinois 12-1
16 Nebraska 10-3
17 UCLA 9-4
18 Michigan 8-4
19 Boise State 10-2
20 Northwestern 9-3
21 Louisville 10-2
22 Utah State 10-2
23 Texas 8-4
24 San Jose State 10-2
25 Kent State 11-2
Step 4: If it's a year where the Rose and Sugar Bowls are not semi-finals, cross off the teams selected by the Rose and Sugar Bowls. They would get first pick at replacements after the semi-finals. The Rose Bowl would already have unranked Wisconsin from the B1G, and would not need a replacement. Since two SEC teams are in the playoffs, the Sugar Bowl would select the highest ranked SEC team on this list.
1 Notre Dame 12-0
2 Alabama 12-1
3 Florida 11-1
4 Oregon 11-1
5 Kansas State 11-1
6 Stanford 11-2
7 Georgia 11-2
8 LSU 10-2
9 Texas A&M 10-2
10 South Carolina 10-2
11 Oklahoma 10-2
12 Florida State 11-2
13 Oregon State 9-3
14 Clemson 10-2
15 Northern Illinois 12-1
16 Nebraska 10-3
17 UCLA 9-4
18 Michigan 8-4
19 Boise State 10-2
20 Northwestern 9-3
21 Louisville 10-2
22 Utah State 10-2
23 Texas 8-4
24 San Jose State 10-2
25 Kent State 11-2
This will give us the following list:
8 LSU 10-2
9 Texas A&M 10-2
10 South Carolina 10-2
16 Nebraska 10-3
18 Michigan 8-4
20 Northwestern 9-3
Step 5: Pick the team closest to the top of the list not crossed off.
In this example, it would be #8 LSU.
Step 6: Look at the regular season schedule and see if there is a rematch. If not, then the game is set. If FSU and LSU had played during the season, then skip to the next team, but LSU gets to go to one of the other CFP spotlight bowls.
I'm sure the rematch rule is included primarily because of several cross conference rivals in the ACC and SEC, as well as the ACC's deal with Notre Dame, where they play 5 ACC teams a year.
There was also talk that Notre Dame might have access to ACC bowls with their status as a partial member of the conference. It is plausible that they could take the ACC spot if the ACC champ is in the playoffs, but nothing has been confirmed on that front.
In the years that the Rose and Sugar Bowls are semi-final games, thus displacing the normal participants of those games, the SEC and/or Big Ten champ cannot be selected for the Orange Bowl.
During the 8 non-semifinal years of this first 12 year cycle, Notre Dame can only appear a maximum of twice, while the SEC and Big Ten are both guaranteed a minimum of three appearances each. I wouldn't be surprised that by years 10-12, we'll be crossing off the SEC teams because the Big Ten hasn't gotten their three appearances in.
The Orange Bowl is still the destination for the ACC champion. If the ACC champion is in the semi-finals, then another ACC team will replace them in the Orange Bowl, unless the Orange Bowl is a semi-final.
For example, if we use the 2013 season, Florida State is the ACC champ, but will play for the national title. If the Orange Bowl is not hosting a semi-final game, they will choose a replacement ACC team, as they did with Clemson. However, if the Orange Bowl is a semi-final game, Clemson would not be guaranteed a spot in one of the other CFP spotlight bowls. If FSU were not playing for the national title, and the Orange Bowl was a semi-final, then FSU would be guaranteed a spot in another CFP bowl.
But what about the opponent? The Orange Bowl will select the highest ranked team of the SEC, Big Ten, or Notre Dame that is not already in the semi-finals, Rose Bowl, or Sugar Bowl.
Here's how they will determine that second team. First, take the primary top 25 poll that will be used to determine CFP rankings.
For our example here, we're using the 2012 BCS rankings. Obviously, we will not have BCS rankings in the future, but that's all we have now. Also, 2012 had a better mix of Big Ten and SEC teams in the polls, unlike 2013, where there were only two Big Ten teams, and neither would have been eligible for the Orange Bowl.
In 2012, Florida State was the ACC champ, and would not have been in the playoffs, so let's figure out who they would play.
Step 1: Cross off any teams not in the SEC or Big Ten. If Notre Dame is on the list, leave them on too.
1 Notre Dame 12-0
2 Alabama 12-1
3 Florida 11-1
5 Kansas State 11-1
6 Stanford 11-2
7 Georgia 11-2
8 LSU 10-2
9 Texas A&M 10-2
10 South Carolina 10-2
12 Florida State 11-2
13 Oregon State 9-3
14 Clemson 10-2
15 Northern Illinois 12-1
16 Nebraska 10-3
18 Michigan 8-4
20 Northwestern 9-3
22 Utah State 10-2
23 Texas 8-4
24 San Jose State 10-2
25 Kent State 11-2
Step 2: Cross off the Big Ten and SEC conference champs. In this particular year, Wisconsin actually won the Big Ten, but was unranked, so they can't be crossed off the list.
1 Notre Dame 12-0
3 Florida 11-1
5 Kansas State 11-1
6 Stanford 11-2
7 Georgia 11-2
8 LSU 10-2
9 Texas A&M 10-2
10 South Carolina 10-2
12 Florida State 11-2
13 Oregon State 9-3
14 Clemson 10-2
15 Northern Illinois 12-1
16 Nebraska 10-3
18 Michigan 8-4
20 Northwestern 9-3
22 Utah State 10-2
23 Texas 8-4
24 San Jose State 10-2
25 Kent State 11-2
Step 3: Cross off the teams in the semi-finals, most likely just #1-4. Yes, in this example, the committee could decide to not put Florida in, and would choose another team, but for our purposes, we're sticking with just #1-4, even though two of those teams were eliminated in previous steps.
2 Alabama 12-1
3 Florida 11-1
5 Kansas State 11-1
6 Stanford 11-2
7 Georgia 11-2
8 LSU 10-2
9 Texas A&M 10-2
10 South Carolina 10-2
12 Florida State 11-2
13 Oregon State 9-3
14 Clemson 10-2
15 Northern Illinois 12-1
16 Nebraska 10-3
18 Michigan 8-4
20 Northwestern 9-3
22 Utah State 10-2
23 Texas 8-4
24 San Jose State 10-2
25 Kent State 11-2
Step 4: If it's a year where the Rose and Sugar Bowls are not semi-finals, cross off the teams selected by the Rose and Sugar Bowls. They would get first pick at replacements after the semi-finals. The Rose Bowl would already have unranked Wisconsin from the B1G, and would not need a replacement. Since two SEC teams are in the playoffs, the Sugar Bowl would select the highest ranked SEC team on this list.
2 Alabama 12-1
3 Florida 11-1
5 Kansas State 11-1
6 Stanford 11-2
8 LSU 10-2
9 Texas A&M 10-2
10 South Carolina 10-2
12 Florida State 11-2
13 Oregon State 9-3
14 Clemson 10-2
15 Northern Illinois 12-1
16 Nebraska 10-3
18 Michigan 8-4
20 Northwestern 9-3
22 Utah State 10-2
23 Texas 8-4
24 San Jose State 10-2
25 Kent State 11-2
This will give us the following list:
8 LSU 10-2
9 Texas A&M 10-2
10 South Carolina 10-2
16 Nebraska 10-3
18 Michigan 8-4
20 Northwestern 9-3
Step 5: Pick the team closest to the top of the list not crossed off.
In this example, it would be #8 LSU.
Step 6: Look at the regular season schedule and see if there is a rematch. If not, then the game is set. If FSU and LSU had played during the season, then skip to the next team, but LSU gets to go to one of the other CFP spotlight bowls.
I'm sure the rematch rule is included primarily because of several cross conference rivals in the ACC and SEC, as well as the ACC's deal with Notre Dame, where they play 5 ACC teams a year.
There was also talk that Notre Dame might have access to ACC bowls with their status as a partial member of the conference. It is plausible that they could take the ACC spot if the ACC champ is in the playoffs, but nothing has been confirmed on that front.
In the years that the Rose and Sugar Bowls are semi-final games, thus displacing the normal participants of those games, the SEC and/or Big Ten champ cannot be selected for the Orange Bowl.
During the 8 non-semifinal years of this first 12 year cycle, Notre Dame can only appear a maximum of twice, while the SEC and Big Ten are both guaranteed a minimum of three appearances each. I wouldn't be surprised that by years 10-12, we'll be crossing off the SEC teams because the Big Ten hasn't gotten their three appearances in.
Sunday, December 8, 2013
Final BCS predictions
The games are done, and the automatic tie-ins are set. Here's the last set of predictions before the official matchups are announced on Sunday night. Surprisingly, after some of the upsets, picking the at-large teams got difficult.
National title: Florida State (ACC champ, #1) vs. Auburn (SEC champ, #2)
Well, we still can't avoid the SEC in the title game, but in the final year of the BCS, we get a matchup between the conference with the recent streak, and the team that started it all with three straight appearances.
Rose Bowl: Michigan State (B1G champ) vs. Stanford (Pac-12 champ)
So I missed the call on the Pac-12, but I still had a feeling Sparty could take the B1G. Although, they probably had that spot locked up regardless of the outcome of the championship game.
Orange Bowl: Clemson (ACC replacement) vs. Ohio State (B1G, at-large)
I have to imagine with all of the shifting around among the top teams after this weekend, Ohio State will still be among the highest teams that aren't already claimed by the BCS, but still eligible to be selected.
Sugar Bowl: Alabama (SEC replacement) vs. Oklahoma (Big 12, at-large)
There's no way Alabama gets left out of the BCS, and with Auburn in the title game, this is the only spot for an SEC team. This at-large spot is actually the toughest. With top teams already claimed as champions or replacements, and other teams left out due to the 2 team per conference limit, it's pretty much down to Oregon and Oklahoma as the last two teams high enough in the rankings. This could come down to the personal preference of the bowl organizers, but I'm going with the "what have you done lately" mentality. While Oklahoma stumbled midseason against Texas and Baylor, Oregon came crashing down hard in the final month of the season. They lost rather embarrassingly to Stanford and Arizona, and just barely beat Oregon State. While the idea of Oregon's high powered offense vs. Alabama's traditional SEC defense sounds like a great matchup of "what might have been" over the last two years, I just don't think Oregon has it in them to be a BCS team this year. Oklahoma's also going to have the edge on travel and tourism.
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor (Big 12 champ) vs. UCF (American champ)
Note to self: The Big 12 likes to self-destruct in the final three weeks. They get wackier than the ACC does with the Wheel of Destiny. Unfortunately, with the American champ falling down to this game, it looks like it would be the least competitive of the BCS bowls. But maybe Baylor can open up their new stadium next year with a last chance BCS banner to enter the CFP era.
Now, I believe the selection process will go like this:
-Orange Bowl (ACC replacement, since they are the #1 team)
-Sugar Bowl (SEC replacement, #2 team)
-Orange Bowl (at-large)
-Sugar Bowl (at-large)
-Fiesta Bowl (not really a pick, since they're stuck with UCF.)
The Orange Bowl could say the heck with the ACC and grab Alabama with that first pick, perhaps hoping that the Sugar Bowl doesn't retaliate, and they can end up with a Clemson/Alabama matchup. Who knows if the bowls care to play nice with each other as the BCS era ends, since they won't really be depending on each other as much in the CFP era. But, if the Orange Bowl makes the Alabama grab, then I think the Sugar Bowl takes Clemson, just because there are so few eligible teams remaining.
National title: Florida State (ACC champ, #1) vs. Auburn (SEC champ, #2)
Well, we still can't avoid the SEC in the title game, but in the final year of the BCS, we get a matchup between the conference with the recent streak, and the team that started it all with three straight appearances.
Rose Bowl: Michigan State (B1G champ) vs. Stanford (Pac-12 champ)
So I missed the call on the Pac-12, but I still had a feeling Sparty could take the B1G. Although, they probably had that spot locked up regardless of the outcome of the championship game.
Orange Bowl: Clemson (ACC replacement) vs. Ohio State (B1G, at-large)
I have to imagine with all of the shifting around among the top teams after this weekend, Ohio State will still be among the highest teams that aren't already claimed by the BCS, but still eligible to be selected.
Sugar Bowl: Alabama (SEC replacement) vs. Oklahoma (Big 12, at-large)
There's no way Alabama gets left out of the BCS, and with Auburn in the title game, this is the only spot for an SEC team. This at-large spot is actually the toughest. With top teams already claimed as champions or replacements, and other teams left out due to the 2 team per conference limit, it's pretty much down to Oregon and Oklahoma as the last two teams high enough in the rankings. This could come down to the personal preference of the bowl organizers, but I'm going with the "what have you done lately" mentality. While Oklahoma stumbled midseason against Texas and Baylor, Oregon came crashing down hard in the final month of the season. They lost rather embarrassingly to Stanford and Arizona, and just barely beat Oregon State. While the idea of Oregon's high powered offense vs. Alabama's traditional SEC defense sounds like a great matchup of "what might have been" over the last two years, I just don't think Oregon has it in them to be a BCS team this year. Oklahoma's also going to have the edge on travel and tourism.
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor (Big 12 champ) vs. UCF (American champ)
Note to self: The Big 12 likes to self-destruct in the final three weeks. They get wackier than the ACC does with the Wheel of Destiny. Unfortunately, with the American champ falling down to this game, it looks like it would be the least competitive of the BCS bowls. But maybe Baylor can open up their new stadium next year with a last chance BCS banner to enter the CFP era.
Now, I believe the selection process will go like this:
-Orange Bowl (ACC replacement, since they are the #1 team)
-Sugar Bowl (SEC replacement, #2 team)
-Orange Bowl (at-large)
-Sugar Bowl (at-large)
-Fiesta Bowl (not really a pick, since they're stuck with UCF.)
The Orange Bowl could say the heck with the ACC and grab Alabama with that first pick, perhaps hoping that the Sugar Bowl doesn't retaliate, and they can end up with a Clemson/Alabama matchup. Who knows if the bowls care to play nice with each other as the BCS era ends, since they won't really be depending on each other as much in the CFP era. But, if the Orange Bowl makes the Alabama grab, then I think the Sugar Bowl takes Clemson, just because there are so few eligible teams remaining.
Saturday, December 7, 2013
BCS Predictions: Championship Day
It seems so easy now with one spot already spoken for (UCF) and one knocked out of contention (NIU). But with so many BCS bowl combinations still possible, here's my take on who ends up where.
Rose Bowl
Michigan State vs Arizona State.
With Northern Illinois losing, Michigan State's cushion just got softer. Now, I'm confident that a loss to the Buckeyes will keep the Spartans in the Top 14, and that it will be a close loss. Until last night, I had the Spartans pulling the upset, and I don't think the mindset of "Rose Bowl, win or lose" will hold Mark Dantonio and company back. But with a tiny bit of desparation taken out, I now think the Buckeyes do just enough to secure the later Pasadena date, with Michigan State making their BCS debut.
Meanwhile, Arizona State - who is likely more motivated for the Rose Bowl and has home-field advantage - gets revenge for its early-season loss to Stanford and joins Michigan State, Baylor, Missouri, and UCF as a BCS newcomer for the last BCS go-round. A high-powered Sun Devil offense against a strong Michigan State defense...could be one of the games of the bowl season!
Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma State vs UCF.
As much as the Sooners have dominated the past decade of Bedlam, it's amazing just how close several of these games have been to wins by the Cowboys. I see a much closer game than 2 years ago, a true Cowboys domination, but still convincing enough to show that Oklahoma State really is the Big 12's best.
The Knights, meawhile, have a fantastic story...the NCAA issued a 1-year bowl ban, which UCF chose to appeal and not take a year ago. Well, the appeal was successful, the bowl ban overturned, and now UCF finds their way not only into a bowl, but a BCS Bowl. As weak as the American has been this year, I think UCF is a BCS-worthy team, and it should be a fun matchup with Oklahoma State.
Sugar Bowl
Missouri vs Baylor
A Big 12 reunion, of sorts, for Missouri, and a matchup of conference champs. After coming oh-so-close to the BCS on multiple occasions, I believe Missouri gets it done and finally wins a conference championship. And, for the first time since 2005, the SEC Champ finds itself out of the National Championship Game.
As for Baylor, I predict they beat Texas today and claim the Big 12 co-championship with Oklahoma State. Although the Cowboys get the automatic bid, Baylor's surely not going to complain about its situation (still officially recognized as Big 12 champs, New Orleans instead of Phoenix, playing the SEC champ instead of American champ).
Orange Bowl
Clemson vs Alabama
I'm still mad about Clemson losing to South Carolina yet again, but at least it appears it hasn't cost the ACC a BCS At-Large spot. They have a chance to redeem themselves, both for SC loss and for its last Orange Bowl outing. And for the 2nd straight year, it's against a highly-ranked SEC team. A win for Clemson here, which would likely be a double-digit upset, would be huge for the program, and we could probably write the SC losses off as flukes, a hex, or simply Spurrier finding a way to get inside Clemson's heads.
As frustrated as Clemson must be about its in-state loss, I'm sure the feeling is magnified 100-fold for Alabama. No SEC Championship, no National Championship, no historic three-peat. This could end up like Alabama 2010, who pounded Michigan State to kingdom come in the Capital One Bowl...or like Alabama 2008, that saw an un-motivated Crimson Tide lose badly to Utah. This was my National Championship Game matchup prediction at the beginning of the season, and I'll be interested to see just how these two teams come to play this one.
National Championship Game
Florida State vs Ohio State.
I have Florida State beating Duke, but not quite by the 29-point spread (forget the name "Duke"...25 to 28 points over an inspired 10-2 team is still a strong victory). The ACC will finally have a team back in the Title Game, and for Florida State, if there was ever time to say it, the time's now: THEY'RE BACK!
And so is Ohio State. Only a fool would deny how hard it is to go undefeated two years in a row, in any conference. In the last two years, a lesser-coached or lesser-focused team could have easily lost to Purdue or Indiana in 2012, Northwestern or Wisconsin in 2013, or Michigan in either year. Full credit goes to the Buckeyes - if they beat Michigan State, and I now predict they do, then their spot in this game will be fully earned and deserved.
As a final note, many (including myself) thought of the second weekend in November as the end-all "pivot weekend" of the season - with OU-Baylor, Stanford-Oregon, and Alabama-LSU. Funny how the two power conferences NOT represented by those matchups are the ones on the verge of perfection and what could be an entertaining meeting for the final BCS Championship.
Rose Bowl
Michigan State vs Arizona State.
With Northern Illinois losing, Michigan State's cushion just got softer. Now, I'm confident that a loss to the Buckeyes will keep the Spartans in the Top 14, and that it will be a close loss. Until last night, I had the Spartans pulling the upset, and I don't think the mindset of "Rose Bowl, win or lose" will hold Mark Dantonio and company back. But with a tiny bit of desparation taken out, I now think the Buckeyes do just enough to secure the later Pasadena date, with Michigan State making their BCS debut.
Meanwhile, Arizona State - who is likely more motivated for the Rose Bowl and has home-field advantage - gets revenge for its early-season loss to Stanford and joins Michigan State, Baylor, Missouri, and UCF as a BCS newcomer for the last BCS go-round. A high-powered Sun Devil offense against a strong Michigan State defense...could be one of the games of the bowl season!
Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma State vs UCF.
As much as the Sooners have dominated the past decade of Bedlam, it's amazing just how close several of these games have been to wins by the Cowboys. I see a much closer game than 2 years ago, a true Cowboys domination, but still convincing enough to show that Oklahoma State really is the Big 12's best.
The Knights, meawhile, have a fantastic story...the NCAA issued a 1-year bowl ban, which UCF chose to appeal and not take a year ago. Well, the appeal was successful, the bowl ban overturned, and now UCF finds their way not only into a bowl, but a BCS Bowl. As weak as the American has been this year, I think UCF is a BCS-worthy team, and it should be a fun matchup with Oklahoma State.
Sugar Bowl
Missouri vs Baylor
A Big 12 reunion, of sorts, for Missouri, and a matchup of conference champs. After coming oh-so-close to the BCS on multiple occasions, I believe Missouri gets it done and finally wins a conference championship. And, for the first time since 2005, the SEC Champ finds itself out of the National Championship Game.
As for Baylor, I predict they beat Texas today and claim the Big 12 co-championship with Oklahoma State. Although the Cowboys get the automatic bid, Baylor's surely not going to complain about its situation (still officially recognized as Big 12 champs, New Orleans instead of Phoenix, playing the SEC champ instead of American champ).
Orange Bowl
Clemson vs Alabama
I'm still mad about Clemson losing to South Carolina yet again, but at least it appears it hasn't cost the ACC a BCS At-Large spot. They have a chance to redeem themselves, both for SC loss and for its last Orange Bowl outing. And for the 2nd straight year, it's against a highly-ranked SEC team. A win for Clemson here, which would likely be a double-digit upset, would be huge for the program, and we could probably write the SC losses off as flukes, a hex, or simply Spurrier finding a way to get inside Clemson's heads.
As frustrated as Clemson must be about its in-state loss, I'm sure the feeling is magnified 100-fold for Alabama. No SEC Championship, no National Championship, no historic three-peat. This could end up like Alabama 2010, who pounded Michigan State to kingdom come in the Capital One Bowl...or like Alabama 2008, that saw an un-motivated Crimson Tide lose badly to Utah. This was my National Championship Game matchup prediction at the beginning of the season, and I'll be interested to see just how these two teams come to play this one.
National Championship Game
Florida State vs Ohio State.
I have Florida State beating Duke, but not quite by the 29-point spread (forget the name "Duke"...25 to 28 points over an inspired 10-2 team is still a strong victory). The ACC will finally have a team back in the Title Game, and for Florida State, if there was ever time to say it, the time's now: THEY'RE BACK!
And so is Ohio State. Only a fool would deny how hard it is to go undefeated two years in a row, in any conference. In the last two years, a lesser-coached or lesser-focused team could have easily lost to Purdue or Indiana in 2012, Northwestern or Wisconsin in 2013, or Michigan in either year. Full credit goes to the Buckeyes - if they beat Michigan State, and I now predict they do, then their spot in this game will be fully earned and deserved.
As a final note, many (including myself) thought of the second weekend in November as the end-all "pivot weekend" of the season - with OU-Baylor, Stanford-Oregon, and Alabama-LSU. Funny how the two power conferences NOT represented by those matchups are the ones on the verge of perfection and what could be an entertaining meeting for the final BCS Championship.
BCS: Last Chance Predictions and Last Minute Chaos Theories
Well, with NIU losing on the eve of the big boy conference championships, I can shift some of the predictions around.
National title: Florida State (ACC champ, #1) vs. Ohio State (B1G champ, #2)
In the final year of the BCS, we could finally see the SEC's streak broken by virtue of them not being in the game. However, if either team loses, then the SEC champion would be back in it.
Rose Bowl: Michigan State (B1G replacement) vs. Arizona State (Pac-12 champ)
I still like Michigan State better, so they might end up here on their own merits, but I just can't pull the trigger on that.
Orange Bowl: Clemson (ACC replacement) vs. Alabama (SEC, at-large)
Now instead of just being the highest ranked team not already claimed by the BCS, Alabama also would have to dodge the Sugar Bowl to avoid an all-SEC bowl game.
Sugar Bowl: Auburn (SEC champ) vs. Baylor (Big 12, at-large)
Still feeling the Auburn magic. Meanwhile, I think Baylor's high powered offense will be an intriguing choice. Also, their proximity to New Orleans compared to a Pac-12 team gives them an edge for tourism. Plus, an SEC-Big 12 matchup would preview the new structure of the Sugar Bowl that will begin after the 2015 season (since the Sugar Bowl is a semi-final playoff games next year).
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State (Big 12 champ) vs. UCF (American champ)
Since there is no non-AQ team left in the mix, the American champ gets dumped to the bottom of the pile.
With NIU's loss, Florida State is almost guaranteed a BCS game, even if the Chaos Theories come true.
Chaos Theory #1: FSU loses to Duke in the ACC Championship.
Obviously, Duke would bump Clemson out of the Orange Bowl, and the SEC champ would move up to the BCS title game.
With only the Sugar Bowl left as Florida State's at-large spot, they would then get matched up with Alabama as the SEC replacement. How ironic, seeing as how everyone was eyeing that as the BCS title game just two weeks ago. But hey, it would mean that those bookstores in Tallahassee would be able to get some use out of the "Bring on Bama" shirts they ordered last week.
That leaves the at-large spot in the Orange Bowl. Currently, Baylor is the highest ranked team left on the board that is eligible. Technically, based on the current rankings, Stanford is ahead of them, but if I'm picking them to lose this weekend, they won't be. Even though Stanford was picked in the Orange Bowl a few years ago, it was largely because it came down to them or the Big East team. For tourism reasons, I think the Orange Bowl is going to avoid a Pac-12 team.
Chaos Theory #2: Ohio State loses to Michigan State in the B1G game.
I don't see Michigan State jumping high enough in the polls to replace Ohio State in the title game. So, I think they go to the Rose Bowl regardless.
Again, with either #1 or #2 losing, the SEC champ will move into the BCS title game. As a result, Alabama slides back to the Sugar Bowl.
After that, it's a toss up as to who becomes the at-large teams. I have to imagine it will be two of the following: Ohio State, Baylor, or a Pac-12 team (Stanford or Oregon). I'd say the Pac-12 teams have a geographic disadvantage, but that might not matter to the Sugar Bowl. Also, the Sugar Bowl could surprise us and take UCF, which also opens up the Fiesta spot, which increases the odds for the Pac-12.
The one constant across all of these theories is that the Orange Bowl is not taking UCF. They finally get first pick of the at-large teams, and they're going to get a good one.
Now, the Ultimate Chaos Theory: FSU and Ohio State both lose...
There will be rioting. Obviously, the SEC champ moves up into the title game, but who is the new #2? Are voters going to allow another all-SEC game, and give Alabama another chance, in a repeat of 2011? Will Oklahoma State or Michigan State be able to jump up high enough to claim #2? Or, is it possible that Florida State is so far ahead that a loss would only knock them to #2?
While I am curious as hell to find out what happens in this situation, I really don't want to have to worry about it. I really don't want to see Alabama back into another national title game.
Maybe I'll have one more set of predictions between the conference championships and the official announcements on Sunday...
National title: Florida State (ACC champ, #1) vs. Ohio State (B1G champ, #2)
In the final year of the BCS, we could finally see the SEC's streak broken by virtue of them not being in the game. However, if either team loses, then the SEC champion would be back in it.
Rose Bowl: Michigan State (B1G replacement) vs. Arizona State (Pac-12 champ)
I still like Michigan State better, so they might end up here on their own merits, but I just can't pull the trigger on that.
Orange Bowl: Clemson (ACC replacement) vs. Alabama (SEC, at-large)
Now instead of just being the highest ranked team not already claimed by the BCS, Alabama also would have to dodge the Sugar Bowl to avoid an all-SEC bowl game.
Sugar Bowl: Auburn (SEC champ) vs. Baylor (Big 12, at-large)
Still feeling the Auburn magic. Meanwhile, I think Baylor's high powered offense will be an intriguing choice. Also, their proximity to New Orleans compared to a Pac-12 team gives them an edge for tourism. Plus, an SEC-Big 12 matchup would preview the new structure of the Sugar Bowl that will begin after the 2015 season (since the Sugar Bowl is a semi-final playoff games next year).
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State (Big 12 champ) vs. UCF (American champ)
Since there is no non-AQ team left in the mix, the American champ gets dumped to the bottom of the pile.
With NIU's loss, Florida State is almost guaranteed a BCS game, even if the Chaos Theories come true.
Chaos Theory #1: FSU loses to Duke in the ACC Championship.
Obviously, Duke would bump Clemson out of the Orange Bowl, and the SEC champ would move up to the BCS title game.
With only the Sugar Bowl left as Florida State's at-large spot, they would then get matched up with Alabama as the SEC replacement. How ironic, seeing as how everyone was eyeing that as the BCS title game just two weeks ago. But hey, it would mean that those bookstores in Tallahassee would be able to get some use out of the "Bring on Bama" shirts they ordered last week.
That leaves the at-large spot in the Orange Bowl. Currently, Baylor is the highest ranked team left on the board that is eligible. Technically, based on the current rankings, Stanford is ahead of them, but if I'm picking them to lose this weekend, they won't be. Even though Stanford was picked in the Orange Bowl a few years ago, it was largely because it came down to them or the Big East team. For tourism reasons, I think the Orange Bowl is going to avoid a Pac-12 team.
Chaos Theory #2: Ohio State loses to Michigan State in the B1G game.
I don't see Michigan State jumping high enough in the polls to replace Ohio State in the title game. So, I think they go to the Rose Bowl regardless.
Again, with either #1 or #2 losing, the SEC champ will move into the BCS title game. As a result, Alabama slides back to the Sugar Bowl.
After that, it's a toss up as to who becomes the at-large teams. I have to imagine it will be two of the following: Ohio State, Baylor, or a Pac-12 team (Stanford or Oregon). I'd say the Pac-12 teams have a geographic disadvantage, but that might not matter to the Sugar Bowl. Also, the Sugar Bowl could surprise us and take UCF, which also opens up the Fiesta spot, which increases the odds for the Pac-12.
The one constant across all of these theories is that the Orange Bowl is not taking UCF. They finally get first pick of the at-large teams, and they're going to get a good one.
Now, the Ultimate Chaos Theory: FSU and Ohio State both lose...
There will be rioting. Obviously, the SEC champ moves up into the title game, but who is the new #2? Are voters going to allow another all-SEC game, and give Alabama another chance, in a repeat of 2011? Will Oklahoma State or Michigan State be able to jump up high enough to claim #2? Or, is it possible that Florida State is so far ahead that a loss would only knock them to #2?
While I am curious as hell to find out what happens in this situation, I really don't want to have to worry about it. I really don't want to see Alabama back into another national title game.
Maybe I'll have one more set of predictions between the conference championships and the official announcements on Sunday...
Friday, December 6, 2013
BCS replacement teams & conference loyalty
As part of a series of reference posts, I want to look at the history of the BCS and replacement teams when a team is selected for the national championship, specifically looking to see if there is conference loyalty.
Obviously, this was only relevant for the 2006-2013 seasons, during which there was a fifth BCS bowl. Prior to that, the national championship actually displaced teams into other BCS bowls.
Any years mentioned in this post are referring to the season, not the calendar year in which the bowls took place.
The 2006 season started the SEC dominance, so let's look at the Sugar Bowl for their replacement.
The only year that the Sugar Bowl did not feature an SEC team was in 2011. Because Alabama and LSU played for the national title (ironically, in a game hosted by the Sugar Bowl), and only 2 teams per conference are allowed into BCS bowls, the Sugar Bowl was required to pick two at-large teams. They selected Michigan and Virginia Tech, from the Big Ten and ACC, respectively.
As a side note, not every SEC team chosen was the Championship loser. In fact, that only happened twice, in 2008 and 2009.
In 2006 and 2007, Ohio State was the losing team in the national championship. Of course, the Rose Bowl does everything it can to preserve the Big Ten/Pac-12 matchup, so a replacement Big Ten team was chosen in both cases.
In 2008 and 2009, the Big 12 champion played in the national title game. While the Fiesta Bowl chose a replacement from the Big 12 in 2008, they did not in 2009. This was mostly due to the next highest ranked Big 12 team being Oklahoma State at #19. TCU was not only the qualified non-AQ, but they were required to be in a BCS bowl due to the 3/4 rule.
The Rose Bowl again had to chose a replacement in 2010, this time due to Pac-12 champion Oregon playing in the title game. However, the BCS had implemented a rule that the first year that a Pac-12 or Big Ten team was selected for the national championship and there was a qualified non-AQ team, the Rose Bowl had to select the non-AQ team as the replacement, so once more TCU busted into a BCS bowl.
We've already gone over 2011 above, and independent Notre Dame was the national title participant, so there was no need for another bowl to not have their champion.
In summary...
2006-2007: Sugar and Rose Bowls took teams from the same conference.
2008: Sugar and Fiesta Bowls took teams from the same conference.
2009: Sugar took an SEC team; Fiesta did not choose a Big 12 team, due to low rankings.
2010: Sugar took an SEC team; Rose did not choose a Pac-12 team, due to contractual obligations to the non-AQ.
2011: Sugar could not choose an SEC team since both were in the national title.
2012: Sugar took an SEC team; no other BCS bowl was affected by Notre Dame.
Obviously, this was only relevant for the 2006-2013 seasons, during which there was a fifth BCS bowl. Prior to that, the national championship actually displaced teams into other BCS bowls.
Any years mentioned in this post are referring to the season, not the calendar year in which the bowls took place.
The 2006 season started the SEC dominance, so let's look at the Sugar Bowl for their replacement.
The only year that the Sugar Bowl did not feature an SEC team was in 2011. Because Alabama and LSU played for the national title (ironically, in a game hosted by the Sugar Bowl), and only 2 teams per conference are allowed into BCS bowls, the Sugar Bowl was required to pick two at-large teams. They selected Michigan and Virginia Tech, from the Big Ten and ACC, respectively.
As a side note, not every SEC team chosen was the Championship loser. In fact, that only happened twice, in 2008 and 2009.
In 2006 and 2007, Ohio State was the losing team in the national championship. Of course, the Rose Bowl does everything it can to preserve the Big Ten/Pac-12 matchup, so a replacement Big Ten team was chosen in both cases.
In 2008 and 2009, the Big 12 champion played in the national title game. While the Fiesta Bowl chose a replacement from the Big 12 in 2008, they did not in 2009. This was mostly due to the next highest ranked Big 12 team being Oklahoma State at #19. TCU was not only the qualified non-AQ, but they were required to be in a BCS bowl due to the 3/4 rule.
The Rose Bowl again had to chose a replacement in 2010, this time due to Pac-12 champion Oregon playing in the title game. However, the BCS had implemented a rule that the first year that a Pac-12 or Big Ten team was selected for the national championship and there was a qualified non-AQ team, the Rose Bowl had to select the non-AQ team as the replacement, so once more TCU busted into a BCS bowl.
We've already gone over 2011 above, and independent Notre Dame was the national title participant, so there was no need for another bowl to not have their champion.
In summary...
2006-2007: Sugar and Rose Bowls took teams from the same conference.
2008: Sugar and Fiesta Bowls took teams from the same conference.
2009: Sugar took an SEC team; Fiesta did not choose a Big 12 team, due to low rankings.
2010: Sugar took an SEC team; Rose did not choose a Pac-12 team, due to contractual obligations to the non-AQ.
2011: Sugar could not choose an SEC team since both were in the national title.
2012: Sugar took an SEC team; no other BCS bowl was affected by Notre Dame.
Thursday, December 5, 2013
Chick-fil-a History
As part of a series of reference posts, I want to look at the history of the Chick-fil-a Bowl and Kickoff Game.
The Chick-fil-a Bowl dropped the Peach part of its name in 2006, and the bowl has been an ACC vs. SEC affair.
The Kickoff Game started in 2008. While an SEC team has anchored the game, the ACC has not always participated.
It has been mentioned several times that a team's chances of getting selected for the Chick-fil-a Bowl would be hindered by their selection in that season's Kickoff Game.
However, there have been 2 cases of a team appearing in both games in one season.
2009: Virginia Tech lost to Alabama in the Kickoff Game, but defeated Tennessee in the Bowl. (They also travelled to Atlanta midseason to play Georgia Tech)
2012: Clemson defeated the Auburn Tigers in the second Kickoff Game, and came back to Atlanta on New Year's Eve to defeat the LSU Tigers.
In addition, there have been cases of a team playing in the Chick-fil-a Bowl in one year, and then starting the following year in the Kickoff Game. In most cases, I'm sure the Kickoff Game was scheduled prior to the Bowl selection.
2007: Clemson ended their season with an overtime loss to Auburn in the Bowl, and then came back at the beginning of 2008 to lose to Alabama.
2011: Auburn defeated UVA in the Bowl, and then lost to Clemson to start the 2012 season.
The Chick-fil-a Bowl dropped the Peach part of its name in 2006, and the bowl has been an ACC vs. SEC affair.
The Kickoff Game started in 2008. While an SEC team has anchored the game, the ACC has not always participated.
It has been mentioned several times that a team's chances of getting selected for the Chick-fil-a Bowl would be hindered by their selection in that season's Kickoff Game.
However, there have been 2 cases of a team appearing in both games in one season.
2009: Virginia Tech lost to Alabama in the Kickoff Game, but defeated Tennessee in the Bowl. (They also travelled to Atlanta midseason to play Georgia Tech)
2012: Clemson defeated the Auburn Tigers in the second Kickoff Game, and came back to Atlanta on New Year's Eve to defeat the LSU Tigers.
In addition, there have been cases of a team playing in the Chick-fil-a Bowl in one year, and then starting the following year in the Kickoff Game. In most cases, I'm sure the Kickoff Game was scheduled prior to the Bowl selection.
2007: Clemson ended their season with an overtime loss to Auburn in the Bowl, and then came back at the beginning of 2008 to lose to Alabama.
2011: Auburn defeated UVA in the Bowl, and then lost to Clemson to start the 2012 season.
Monday, December 2, 2013
BCS Thoughts: Week 15
No "Under the Radar" games this time...it's Championship Week! Sure, there are some other games that I could look for and describe, but this weekend really is all about the championships.
National Championship Game,
We've finally got our clarity - or so it seems. Some folks have argued for a 1-loss SEC Champion (Auburn or Missouri) to leap into the #2 spot based on Strength of Schedule. But at the end of the day, if Florida State and Ohio State both win, then they'll both be in. After all, SOS might be a factor, but it's certainly not the entire criteria.
But entertaining the 1-loss group for a minute. Should either the Seminoles or Buckeyes lose, then the winning SEC Tigers have the clear path. The only catch is: the SEC Championship Game is played first, so they will have to wait and see what happens that night in Charlotte and Indy.
If the Top 2 BOTH lose, however unlikely it might be (Michigan State, maybe ... Duke, whaaaat?!?), then the SEC Champ's opponent discussion gets interesting. I suppose the in-game performances will be factored in, but the three contending teams I would imagine in this scenario would be Alabama, Oklahoma State, and Michigan State.
Interestingly, should Florida State win, they would bookend the BCS era with Title Game appearances, and would become the only team to play in the NCG in all four places (lost Fiesta and Orange, won Sugar, TBD in Pasadena).
BCS Buster
It's Northern Illinois or nothing. And the odds are in their favor, provided they take care of Bowling Green this Friday. The polls give a slight edge to UCF, who the media keeps linking NIU's fate to, but the computers more than offsets that edge, keeping the Huskies in prime position.
Currently at #14, it'll be hard to imagine a 13-0 NIU dropping out of BCS range. With an idle Clemson and Oregon just ahead, and a 3rd loss guaranteed for Stanford or Arizona State, and a Michigan State loss possible, we could find NIU as high as #10 once Sunday night rolls around. And should UCF still pass NIU, as long as the Huskies are #12 or better, the relationship with AQ conferences is irrelevant.
And there's also a back door for NIU, should UCF get ahead and keep NIU in the 13-16 range. If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, and Texas beats Baylor, then Texas is the Big 12 Champ and becomes the AQ Champ for NIU to rest above - and play, for that matter, as its opponent in the Fiesta Bowl.
BCS At Large
Alabama's in, most likely under the "3-4 Rule" and with a remote chance of playing for the Big One (see above).
Assuming Northern Illinois is in as the Automatic non-AQ spot, that leaves two at-large picks. Baylor, Clemson, and Oregon are all waiting in the wings to see how things play out. I'll discuss each one, along with another team that is still in direct BCS control right now.
Michigan State has direct control, playing Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. Should the Spartans win, they're guaranteed a spot in the Rose Bowl (with a slight chance of the later Pasadena appearance should Duke also win - see above). But if the Spartans lose, they might be going to the Rose Bowl anyway, provided they stay in the Top 14.
Thankfully, there are several idle teams right below them (Oregon, Clemson, LSU) who all finished their regular seasons with lackluster performances (ugly wins for Oregon and LSU, ugly loss for Clemson). Currently 10th, I can realistically see NIU and UCF passing the Spartans. That would make the Spartans #12. Even if Arizona State beats Stanford, and the Cardinal stay high, that's still #13 for MSU. There's one position for wiggle room, but as long as the Spartans hold on, then the Rose Bowl spot's as good as theirs.
Speaking of Clemson, first off let me say SHAME ON YOU for losing to South Carolina yet again. If it weren't for the 2-team-per-conference limit, the ACC Tigers could forget about a BCS Bowl. But, as long as Florida State beats Duke, the Seminoles will be in the BCS Title Game, and the Orange Bowl can select Clemson as its ACC replacement. Currently at #13, I can see Clemson passing the PAC 12 runner up, and maybe Michigan State. But with the possibility of getting jumped by NIU and UCF, it'll be interesting to see if Dabo and company hold on to its spot in the Top 14.
Baylor can get back into the auto-BCS hunt if they beat Texas in their grand finale at Floyd Casey Stadium and the Sooners emerge victorious in Bedlam. The main thing holding Baylor back is its name, but there are certainly some options to keep the 11-1 Bears in the At-Large mix. First off, a Bowling Green upset over NIU eliminates the non-AQ spot. In this case, I'd have to imagine a Top 8 Texas-based Baylor team being the prime candidate for New Orleans. Or, perhaps Clemson or Michigan State stumble out of the Top 14.
Oregon has probably played itself out of contention, with its late-season beatdown by Arizona and near-loss against Oregon State. But there are a couple chances for the Ducks to keep their BCS streak going. First, the hypothetical NIU loss would have the Ducks and Bears both alive for that last spot. Again, depending on how Michigan State, Oregon, and Clemson fare with the #14 threshold, it'll be interesting to see who can get chosen, much less who does get chosen.
On a final note, I will be back in a few days to deliver my own set of BCS Predictions. Who will win this weekend's big games? Only one way to find out - let the games begin!
National Championship Game,
We've finally got our clarity - or so it seems. Some folks have argued for a 1-loss SEC Champion (Auburn or Missouri) to leap into the #2 spot based on Strength of Schedule. But at the end of the day, if Florida State and Ohio State both win, then they'll both be in. After all, SOS might be a factor, but it's certainly not the entire criteria.
But entertaining the 1-loss group for a minute. Should either the Seminoles or Buckeyes lose, then the winning SEC Tigers have the clear path. The only catch is: the SEC Championship Game is played first, so they will have to wait and see what happens that night in Charlotte and Indy.
If the Top 2 BOTH lose, however unlikely it might be (Michigan State, maybe ... Duke, whaaaat?!?), then the SEC Champ's opponent discussion gets interesting. I suppose the in-game performances will be factored in, but the three contending teams I would imagine in this scenario would be Alabama, Oklahoma State, and Michigan State.
- If Oklahoma State's loss to 6-6 Iowa State couldn't vault them past a rematch-seeking Bama 2 years ago, then an even worse loss to a 4-8 West Virginia is certainly grounds to toss the Cowboys. And of course, the 1-loss team that lost to the Cowboys (sorry, Baylor).
- Alabama would probably be the media "favorite" to get the #2 spot, even if Auburn wins on Saturday. I suppose Michigan State stands a chance, particularly if they win big against the Buckeyes, or if voters are dead-set against an all-SEC rematch.
Interestingly, should Florida State win, they would bookend the BCS era with Title Game appearances, and would become the only team to play in the NCG in all four places (lost Fiesta and Orange, won Sugar, TBD in Pasadena).
BCS Buster
It's Northern Illinois or nothing. And the odds are in their favor, provided they take care of Bowling Green this Friday. The polls give a slight edge to UCF, who the media keeps linking NIU's fate to, but the computers more than offsets that edge, keeping the Huskies in prime position.
Currently at #14, it'll be hard to imagine a 13-0 NIU dropping out of BCS range. With an idle Clemson and Oregon just ahead, and a 3rd loss guaranteed for Stanford or Arizona State, and a Michigan State loss possible, we could find NIU as high as #10 once Sunday night rolls around. And should UCF still pass NIU, as long as the Huskies are #12 or better, the relationship with AQ conferences is irrelevant.
And there's also a back door for NIU, should UCF get ahead and keep NIU in the 13-16 range. If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, and Texas beats Baylor, then Texas is the Big 12 Champ and becomes the AQ Champ for NIU to rest above - and play, for that matter, as its opponent in the Fiesta Bowl.
BCS At Large
Alabama's in, most likely under the "3-4 Rule" and with a remote chance of playing for the Big One (see above).
Assuming Northern Illinois is in as the Automatic non-AQ spot, that leaves two at-large picks. Baylor, Clemson, and Oregon are all waiting in the wings to see how things play out. I'll discuss each one, along with another team that is still in direct BCS control right now.
Michigan State has direct control, playing Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. Should the Spartans win, they're guaranteed a spot in the Rose Bowl (with a slight chance of the later Pasadena appearance should Duke also win - see above). But if the Spartans lose, they might be going to the Rose Bowl anyway, provided they stay in the Top 14.
Thankfully, there are several idle teams right below them (Oregon, Clemson, LSU) who all finished their regular seasons with lackluster performances (ugly wins for Oregon and LSU, ugly loss for Clemson). Currently 10th, I can realistically see NIU and UCF passing the Spartans. That would make the Spartans #12. Even if Arizona State beats Stanford, and the Cardinal stay high, that's still #13 for MSU. There's one position for wiggle room, but as long as the Spartans hold on, then the Rose Bowl spot's as good as theirs.
Speaking of Clemson, first off let me say SHAME ON YOU for losing to South Carolina yet again. If it weren't for the 2-team-per-conference limit, the ACC Tigers could forget about a BCS Bowl. But, as long as Florida State beats Duke, the Seminoles will be in the BCS Title Game, and the Orange Bowl can select Clemson as its ACC replacement. Currently at #13, I can see Clemson passing the PAC 12 runner up, and maybe Michigan State. But with the possibility of getting jumped by NIU and UCF, it'll be interesting to see if Dabo and company hold on to its spot in the Top 14.
Baylor can get back into the auto-BCS hunt if they beat Texas in their grand finale at Floyd Casey Stadium and the Sooners emerge victorious in Bedlam. The main thing holding Baylor back is its name, but there are certainly some options to keep the 11-1 Bears in the At-Large mix. First off, a Bowling Green upset over NIU eliminates the non-AQ spot. In this case, I'd have to imagine a Top 8 Texas-based Baylor team being the prime candidate for New Orleans. Or, perhaps Clemson or Michigan State stumble out of the Top 14.
Oregon has probably played itself out of contention, with its late-season beatdown by Arizona and near-loss against Oregon State. But there are a couple chances for the Ducks to keep their BCS streak going. First, the hypothetical NIU loss would have the Ducks and Bears both alive for that last spot. Again, depending on how Michigan State, Oregon, and Clemson fare with the #14 threshold, it'll be interesting to see who can get chosen, much less who does get chosen.
On a final note, I will be back in a few days to deliver my own set of BCS Predictions. Who will win this weekend's big games? Only one way to find out - let the games begin!
BCS: Post-turkey predictions
It's time for some picks I didn't dare make last week.
National title: Florida State (ACC champ, #1) vs. Ohio State (B1G champ, #2)
In the final year of the BCS, we could finally see the SEC's streak broken by virtue of them not being in the game. However, if either team loses, then the SEC champion would be back in it.
Rose Bowl: Michigan State (B1G replacement) vs. Arizona State (Pac-12 champ)
I still like Michigan State better, so they might end up here on their own merits, but I just can't pull the trigger on that.
Orange Bowl: Clemson (ACC replacement) vs. Alabama (SEC, at-large)
Who wouldn't pick Alabama for their bowl game if they were available? They'll probably be the highest ranked team that's not already spoken for by the BCS.
Sugar Bowl: Auburn (SEC champ) vs. UCF (American champ)
I'm feeling the Auburn magic right now.
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State (Big 12 champ) vs. Northern Illinois (non-AQ)
Fresno State lost, making NIU the only non-AQ team left standing.
National title: Florida State (ACC champ, #1) vs. Ohio State (B1G champ, #2)
In the final year of the BCS, we could finally see the SEC's streak broken by virtue of them not being in the game. However, if either team loses, then the SEC champion would be back in it.
Rose Bowl: Michigan State (B1G replacement) vs. Arizona State (Pac-12 champ)
I still like Michigan State better, so they might end up here on their own merits, but I just can't pull the trigger on that.
Orange Bowl: Clemson (ACC replacement) vs. Alabama (SEC, at-large)
Who wouldn't pick Alabama for their bowl game if they were available? They'll probably be the highest ranked team that's not already spoken for by the BCS.
Sugar Bowl: Auburn (SEC champ) vs. UCF (American champ)
I'm feeling the Auburn magic right now.
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State (Big 12 champ) vs. Northern Illinois (non-AQ)
Fresno State lost, making NIU the only non-AQ team left standing.
Games to Watch: Championship Weekend
The holiday season has begun, so it's time to determine the best of each conference.
Thursday
7:30 PM
Louisville at Cincinnati, ESPN. This game might help determine the winner of the conference formerly known as the Big East. It's not a de facto championship, but one of the final pieces of the puzzle.
Friday
8 PM
MAC Championship: Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois, ESPN2. This will determine the status of a non-AQ team in the BCS bowls.
Saturday
Noon
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State, ABC. Oklahoma State would win their conference with this game. If they don't win, then we have one more Big 12 game to watch.
UCF at SMU, ESPN. It's the American Conference, so no one really cares, but this is definitely the final piece of the AAC puzzle. Probably just one to follow on the SportsCenter app.
3:30 PM
Texas at Baylor, FOX. If Oklahoma wins, then this game becomes the Big 12 championship game. If OK State wins, then we're just watching this one long enough to fill the time before the SEC game starts.
4 PM
SEC Championship: Auburn vs. Missouri, CBS. The Tigers will win this game, and be #3 in the BCS, with a good chance to jump into the national championship if #1 or #2 lose.
7:45 PM
Pac-12 Championship: Stanford at Arizona State, ESPN. Winner goes to the Rose Bowl.
8 PM
ACC Championship: Duke vs. Florida State, ABC. This game is finally back in primetime and on ABC. My mind is being blown that Duke is in it. This is also the game with the biggest chaos theory potential, as a Duke upset would upset the entire BCS.
8:17 PM
B1G Championship: Ohio State vs. Michigan State, FOX. Implications for both BCS games in Pasadena are on the line here.
Saturday, December 14
3:30 PM
Army vs. Navy, CBS. A special bonus game here. This game is about more than just football, and is always a great way to end the regular season and prime the bowl season. Personally, I know more Army people, and would root for them, but in football, Navy has been dominant. But sometimes, you just hate to root against either side.
Thursday
7:30 PM
Louisville at Cincinnati, ESPN. This game might help determine the winner of the conference formerly known as the Big East. It's not a de facto championship, but one of the final pieces of the puzzle.
Friday
8 PM
MAC Championship: Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois, ESPN2. This will determine the status of a non-AQ team in the BCS bowls.
Saturday
Noon
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State, ABC. Oklahoma State would win their conference with this game. If they don't win, then we have one more Big 12 game to watch.
UCF at SMU, ESPN. It's the American Conference, so no one really cares, but this is definitely the final piece of the AAC puzzle. Probably just one to follow on the SportsCenter app.
3:30 PM
Texas at Baylor, FOX. If Oklahoma wins, then this game becomes the Big 12 championship game. If OK State wins, then we're just watching this one long enough to fill the time before the SEC game starts.
4 PM
SEC Championship: Auburn vs. Missouri, CBS. The Tigers will win this game, and be #3 in the BCS, with a good chance to jump into the national championship if #1 or #2 lose.
7:45 PM
Pac-12 Championship: Stanford at Arizona State, ESPN. Winner goes to the Rose Bowl.
8 PM
ACC Championship: Duke vs. Florida State, ABC. This game is finally back in primetime and on ABC. My mind is being blown that Duke is in it. This is also the game with the biggest chaos theory potential, as a Duke upset would upset the entire BCS.
8:17 PM
B1G Championship: Ohio State vs. Michigan State, FOX. Implications for both BCS games in Pasadena are on the line here.
Saturday, December 14
3:30 PM
Army vs. Navy, CBS. A special bonus game here. This game is about more than just football, and is always a great way to end the regular season and prime the bowl season. Personally, I know more Army people, and would root for them, but in football, Navy has been dominant. But sometimes, you just hate to root against either side.
Sunday, December 1, 2013
What If...Playoff update
After an interesting turn of events, we can once more play "What if the playoffs started this year?"
The top two teams are currently set as Florida State and Ohio State. It's very clear that the SEC champion (Auburn or Missouri) should be #3.
I think I would pick Oklahoma State as the fourth team in the playoffs. At this point, they only have one loss, and lead their conference. If they win their next game, they will be conference champions.
I think all four teams as conference champions have stated their case very well. Florida State steamrolled everyone they played. Ohio State may not have had the toughest schedule, but they won all of their games. The SEC champs would only have one loss, and have some tough games on their schedule. It's a toss up for me whether it's Auburn or Missouri at this point.
I know some people would try their hardest to get Alabama in the mix somehow, but I'm sorry, they lost a game to the division champions, and they had several opportunities to put that game away before Saban begged for the last second on the clock.
Now, if Ohio State loses the B1G championship game, I would put Michigan State into the playoffs, probably at #3, behind the SEC champ.
If Florida State loses to Duke, though, I would have to think about what teams would qualify. If we went with the conference champions first, that could put the Pac-12 into play, but all of their teams have at least 2 losses, and there would still be several 1 loss teams in play.
So, round one of the playoffs would be:
Florida State vs. Oklahoma State
B1G champ vs. SEC champ
The top two teams are currently set as Florida State and Ohio State. It's very clear that the SEC champion (Auburn or Missouri) should be #3.
I think I would pick Oklahoma State as the fourth team in the playoffs. At this point, they only have one loss, and lead their conference. If they win their next game, they will be conference champions.
I think all four teams as conference champions have stated their case very well. Florida State steamrolled everyone they played. Ohio State may not have had the toughest schedule, but they won all of their games. The SEC champs would only have one loss, and have some tough games on their schedule. It's a toss up for me whether it's Auburn or Missouri at this point.
I know some people would try their hardest to get Alabama in the mix somehow, but I'm sorry, they lost a game to the division champions, and they had several opportunities to put that game away before Saban begged for the last second on the clock.
Now, if Ohio State loses the B1G championship game, I would put Michigan State into the playoffs, probably at #3, behind the SEC champ.
If Florida State loses to Duke, though, I would have to think about what teams would qualify. If we went with the conference champions first, that could put the Pac-12 into play, but all of their teams have at least 2 losses, and there would still be several 1 loss teams in play.
So, round one of the playoffs would be:
Florida State vs. Oklahoma State
B1G champ vs. SEC champ
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