2017 Season: Post-November Thoughts and Championship Look-Ahead

It's Championship Week already? With each passing year, it seems we get to this point sooner and sooner!

Week 13 wrap up

All of the championship games have been set.  Only three of them are regular season rematches.

#CFB - Thanksgiving weekend UVA sucks edition

The first sign of the beginning of the holiday season is Santa Claus rolling through Harold Square.  The second sign is the Hokies beating UVA.

ACC Coastal did it too!

ACC rooting guide: week 13

Who are Hokies rooting for during the final week to maximize the bowl jackpot?

What to watch: Week 13

It's rivalry weekend, so there's a lot on the line here, even if only a handful of games are going to shape the postseason.

Friday, November 24
Noon
Baylor at TCU, FS1.  If TCU wins, they clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game.

8 PM
#24 VT at UVA, ESPN.  It's the annual clash for the Commonwealth Cup, which has resided in Blacksburg since Thanksgiving weekend of 2004.

Saturday, November 25
Noon
#9 Ohio State at Michigan, FOX.  Nothing on the line here for conference purposes, but how could we leave The Game off the list?  An Ohio State loss would shake up the CFP standings, though.

3:30 PM
#1 Alabama at #6 Auburn, CBS.  The Iron Bowl has the SEC West and the Championship of Life on the line.

Iowa State at Kansas State, ESPN2.  This game only matters if TCU loses on Friday, as Iowa State could clinch a Big 12 title game spot with a win.


3:45 PM
WVU at #4 Oklahoma, ESPN.  Oklahoma has already clinched a spot in the Big 12 title game.  WVU could clinch if they win here, plus Iowa State wins, and TCU loses, and maybe some other stuff.  Not really likely though.  At the very least, WVU could play spoiler for the entire conference in the CFP race.

8 PM
#13 Washington State at #17 Washington, FOX.  The Apple Cup holds the key for the Pac-12 North.  A Washington State win clinches the division for them, while a loss would send Stanford to the conference championship game.

Week 12 wrap up

Only three championship berths left to be clinched.  But quite a bit of bowl eligibility on the line next weekend.

What to Watch: Week 12

Not a lot going on this weekend, between several divisions already being clinched and most of the SEC and some of the ACC playing cupcakes before their big rivals next weekend.

Saturday, November 18
Noon
#24 Michigan at #5 Wisconsin, FOX.  Wisconsin has already clinched the Big Ten West, but a loss could seriously hurt their chances at a CFP spot.  Michigan also needs the win to keep in the Big Ten East hunt.  A loss plus an Ohio State win would end the race.

Texas at West Virginia, ESPN.  A loss for either team may not eliminate them from Big 12 contention, but it would be a severe setback.

Mercer at #1 Alabama, SECN.  The next round of the Championship of Life.

3:30 PM
Illinois at #9 Ohio State, ABC.  An Ohio State win plus a Michigan loss would clinch the Big Ten East.  At the very least, any of the remaining contenders would be knocked out with a loss of their own if Ohio State wins here.

#4 Oklahoma at Kansas, ESPN.  Oklahoma clinches a berth in the Big 12 championship game with a win here.

4 PM
Maryland at #17 Michigan State, FOX.  A loss and Ohio State win would eliminate Michigan State.

Nebraska at #10 Penn State, FS1.  A loss and Ohio State win would eliminate Penn State.

8 PM
Cal at #22 Stanford, FOX.  A loss would eliminate Stanford from the Pac-12 North race, but a win would eliminate Washington.

ACC rooting guide

As we approach the final two weeks of the regular season, and the conference title games are set, we also have to root for bowl positioning.

This rooting guide is set up for a VT fan's perspective.

Chaos Theory: Week 12

Georgia fell from the ranks of the unbeaten.  We are down to four.  Of course, we are at the point of the season where losses by any of these teams will not create chaos, but make the picture clearer.

Mercer over Alabama
UVA over Miami
Michigan over Wisconsin
Temple over UCF

Projecting the New Year's Six: Week 12

Chaos may have reigned on the field, but it helped stabilize the rankings a bit.  This week, I only need to generate one scenario (albeit with an either/or option).

Breaking down the New Year's Six Bowls

Now that we've been through a full cycle of CFP games, I thought it would be worth taking a look at how the selection for the New Year's Six bowls played out, with a focus on any teams in the top 12 that got left out due to other contractual obligations.

Week 11 wrap up

We already have half of the Power 5 championship berths clinched, with a few more set up in winner-take-all games.  But chaos rules in the Playoff hunt.

It took 11 weeks this year

Hey, look what the ACC Atlantic did in 11 weeks this year!

Chaos Theory: Week 11

All of the unbeatens chugged along last week.  Still have five.

Auburn over Georgia
Mississippi State over Alabama
Notre Dame over Miami
Iowa over Wisconsin
UConn over UCF

What to watch: Week 11

Friday, November 10
10:30 PM

#9 Washington at Stanford, FS1.  A loss for Stanford would seriously cripple their chance as winning the Pac-12 North, if not just outright crushing it.  Both teams need the win to keep pace with Washington State.

Saturday, November 11
Noon
#12 Michigan State at #13 Ohio State, FOX.  The battle for the lead in the Big Ten East.

Rutgers at #14 Penn State, BTN.  Rutgers is playing an elimination game, while Penn State is trying to stay on the heels of Michigan State and Ohio State.

#15 Oklahoma State at #21 Iowa State, ABC/ESPN2.  Both teams need a win to stay in the race for the Big 12.  A loss doesn't necessary eliminate them, but it would be a major setback.

#23 NC State at Boston College, ABC/ESPN2.  If NC State loses, Clemson clinches the ACC Atlantic.

3:30 PM
#20 Iowa at #8 Wisconsin, ABC.  Wisconsin can seal the Big Ten West with a win here and a Northwestern loss.  Meanwhile, Iowa needs a win to keep their slim hopes alive.

#1 Georgia at #10 Auburn, CBS.  Even though it's a cross divisional matchup, and Georgia has already clinched the SEC East, an Auburn win would set up the Iron Bowl as a winner-take-all.  If Auburn loses while Alabama wins (against Mississippi State), then it's all over.

Florida State at #4 Clemson, ESPN.  A Clemson win would seal the ACC Atlantic if NC State wins earlier.  Plus, FSU is still fighting for bowl eligibility, which is why they finally rescheduled the game originally cancelled in week 2 due to the hurricane.

UVA at Louisville, ESPNU.  A UVA loss would give Miami the ACC Coastal.

4 PM
#11 USC at Colorado, FOX.  USC clinches the Pac-12 South with a win.

7 PM

#2 Alabama at #16 Mississippi State, ESPN.  An Alabama win, along with an Auburn loss earlier in the day would give the SEC West to the Tide.  Also, it's the latest round in the Championship of Life.

8 PM
#3 Notre Dame at #7 Miami, ABC.  A non-conference game that has huge CFP and NY6 implications.

#6 TCU at #5 Oklahoma, FOX.  Currently the battle for the top spot in the Big 12.  These two primetime games will have the biggest effect on the next set of rankings.

Projecting the New Year's Six: Week 11

The weekly rankings from the CFP committee are an interesting beast.  Because they only take into account the body of work up to that point in the season, there are often teams near each other that will be facing each other before season's end.  Turnover is expected at the top.

Anyway, I have come up with two scenarios for New Year's Six Bowl projections based on the current rankings.

Scenario #1 - If we just take the rankings at face value, and don't account for future match-ups, and assume the highest ranked team from a conference will be champion.

Sugar Bowl:  #1 Georgia vs. #4 Clemson
Rose Bowl:  #2 Alabama vs. #3 Notre Dame

The champs of the Big 12 (#5 Oklahoma), Pac-12 (#9 Washington), and Big Ten (#8 Wisconsin) champs would all be displaced from their spots, and would have to find spots in the at-large bowls.  The Orange Bowl would be taking the next available ACC team to replace Clemson.  With the Group of 5 team (#18 UCF) taking a Peach Bowl spot, there are only 2 at-large spots left, which would go to the two highest ranked teams left (#6 TCU and #11 USC).

Orange Bowl:  #7 Miami vs. #10 Auburn
Peach Bowl:  #6 TCU vs. #18 UCF
Fiesta Bowl:  #8 Wisconsin vs. #9 Washington
Cotton Bowl:  #5 Oklahoma vs. #11 USC

Obviously, the last three are mostly interchangeable.  I am intrigue by the fact that the traditional Rose Bowl match-up could get recreated in another bowl, and I think the Fiesta Bowl is the proper location for that.  Oklahoma and TCU are interchangeable, as either one would be close to the Cotton Bowl, as well as being a nice highly ranked balance to #18 UCF.


Scenario #2 - Take future match-ups into account and do some in-season projections.

First, it's highly likely that #1 Georgia and #2 Alabama will be facing off in the SEC championship game.  If the rest of the top 10 can keep their records close, it's likely that the loser will fall out of the top 4.  Meanwhile, #5 Oklahoma and #6 TCU play each other this weekend, so one of them is definitely dropping before season's end.  I will be assuming that the higher ranked team will win, however, in these scenarios, those teams are easily interchangeable.

Sugar Bowl:  #1 Georgia vs. #5 Oklahoma
Rose Bowl:  #3 Notre Dame vs. #4 Clemson

The Sugar Bowl would be the exact matchup that it should be (SEC champ vs. Big 12 champ), so no team would be displaced, but the Rose Bowl would still displace both the Pac-12 and Big Ten champs.  I would assume that Alabama would stay ranked high enough to be the top of the list for the Orange Bowl pool.  Obviously, TCU would fall in the rankings, but based on their record, they could easily be in the #10-12 range, around teams like Michigan State.

Orange Bowl:  #7 Miami vs. #2 Alabama
Peach Bowl:  #10 Auburn vs. #18 UCF
Fiesta Bowl:  #8 Wisconsin vs. #9 Washington
Cotton Bowl:  #6 TCU or #12 Michigan State vs. #11 USC

Again, we recreate the Rose Bowl match-up in the Fiesta Bowl.  Auburn is not a bad geographical fit for the Peach or Cotton Bowl, but the other available teams are all better fits for the Cotton Bowl.

Either way, it's still looking like the only way to lock into a New Year's Six Bowl is to be in the top 11.

Week 10 wrap up

A big weekend clarifies a lot of conference races.  We already have one division clinched, and a few more set up to be clinched next weekend.

November predictions

Where has the football season gone?  We're already down to the final month.  Yet again, it's time to adjust the predictions, and this time, we have the added benefit of the first CFP rankings, as well as knowing some teams that are definitely out of the race.

2017 Season: Post-October Thoughts

As a handful of November American and MACtion games go on tonight, I wanted to take a moment and reflect on the 2017 season through the end of October.

What to Watch: Week 10

We're bringing back this segment of the blog, now that we've got some elimination games going on.  Instead of necessarily pointing out the biggest or most intriguing games, we'll be pointing out the games that will shape the conference races the most.


Saturday, November 4

Noon
#7 Penn State at #24 Michigan State, FOX.  The battle for second place behind Ohio State.

Baylor at Kansas.  The loser will be officially eliminated from Big 12 contention.

Florida at Missouri, ESPN2.  Missouri is already out but needs to start winning if they want to go bowling.  Florida will be playing the first game under an interim coach, and immediately plays an elimination game.

3 PM
Georgia Tech at UVA, RSN.  This game is a small, but important key to the Coastal race.  UVA is also fighting for bowl eligibility, which has been just outside of their reach for the last two weeks.

3:30 PM
#4 Clemson at #20 NC State, ABC.  The first of two de facto ACC semi-finals this week.  The remaining contenders in the Atlantic will be rooting for NC State.

South Carolina at #1 Georgia, CBS.  An elimination game for most of the SEC East.  Georgia can clinch the division with a win here and a loss by Kentucky.

#6 Ohio State at Iowa, ESPN.  An OSU win could eliminate the teams at the bottom of both Big Ten divisions.

#15 Iowa State at West Virginia, ESPN2.  Iowa State has a history of not being very good, but still managing to ruin the season of one Big 12 team.  This year, they've already done that twice, and if they keep it up, they're going to singlehandedly keep the Big 12 out of the Playoff.  Meanwhile, WVU has been jumping that line of ranked vs. unranked.  I have a feeling they'll end the season about where they started, ranked in the 20s.

Maryland at Rutgers, BTN.  The loser of this game is eliminated if Ohio State wins.

#21 Stanford at #25 Washington State, FOX.  This game has implications for the top and bottom to the Pac-12 North.

4 PM
#5 Oklahoma at #11 Oklahoma State, FS1.  This game was moved from its traditional post-Thanksgiving spot because the Big 12 is afraid that it will end up being a championship game rematch.  In the somewhat confusing Big 12 conference race, this game is a big key that will cause separation.

8 PM
#13 Virginia Tech at #10 Miami, ABC.  The other de facto ACC semi-final.  It's also an elimination game for VT.  The remaining contenders in the Coastal are also rooting for VT to win to keep their chances alive.  If Miami and GT both win, then Miami clinches the Coastal.

#19 LSU at #2 Alabama, CBS.  The Championship of Life is once again up for grabs.  An Alabama loss would keep the rest of the SEC West alive, as well as keeping the season fun.

10:45 PM
Arizona at USC, ESPN.  It's a battle for the two teams that still control their destiny in the Pac-12 South.

Chaos Theory: Week 10

Okay, so we had a few shakeups last week.  USF, TCU, and Penn State lost, dropping us down to 5 undefeated teams, who are all playing this week.

LSU over Alabama
South Carolina over Georgia
Virginia Tech over Miami
Indiana over Wisconsin
SMU over UCF