2018 Season Thoughts: Post-Regular Season

From the August Week 0 games to today's Army-Navy game, the regular season is now in the books. With that being the case, let's look back on what made it so different/special.

New Year's Six projections post-Thanksgiving

Based on the most recent rankings, here are my projections for the New Year's Six bowls.

This week, I am doing a little predicting here, since #1 Alabama plays #4 Georgia for the SEC title, the loser will obviously not remain in that ranking.

Cotton Bowl (semi-final)
#1 Alabama (projected SEC champ) vs. #5 Oklahoma (projected Big 12 champ)

Orange Bowl (semi-final)
#2 Clemson (projected ACC champ) vs. #3 Notre Dame

Sugar Bowl
#4 Georgia (projected SEC replacement team) vs. #14 Texas (projected Big 12 replacement team)

Rose Bowl
#11 Washington (projected Pac-12 champ) vs. #10 Ohio State (projected Big Ten champ)

Fiesta Bowl
#8 UCF (projected Group of 5 rep) vs. #9 Florida

Peach Bowl
#10 LSU vs. #7 Michigan

Again, LSU and Florida are interchangeable, as conference foes will not be paired together.

Week 13 wrap up

Conference championships are set, but we have a bit of a logjam in the CFP.

ACC Championship:  Clemson (8-0) vs. Pitt (6-2)
Both teams clinched their division with best record.

Bowl eligible:  Clemson, Notre Dame, UVA, BC, Syracuse, NC State, Duke, Pitt, GT, Miami, WF
Last chance for bowl:  VT
No bowl:  UNC, Louisville, FSU

SEC Championship:  Georgia (7-1) vs. Alabama (8-0)
Both teams clinched their division with the best record.

Bowl eligible:  Georgia, Alabama, Florida, LSU, Kentucky, Auburn, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Missouri, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

No bowl:  Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee

Big Ten Championship:  Ohio State (8-1) vs. Northwestern (8-1)
Ohio State has the head-to-head over Michigan (also 8-1), while Northwestern clinched the West with the best record.

Bowl eligible:  Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Northwestern, Minnesota, Purdue
No bowl:  Rutgers, Nebraska, Illinois, Maryland, Indiana

Pac-12 Championship:  Washington (7-2) vs. Utah (6-3)
Washington has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Washington State (also 7-2), while Utah clinched the South with the best record.

Bowl eligible:  Washington, Washington State, Utah, Oregon, Stanford, Arizona State, Cal
No bowl:  Oregon State, UCLA, Colorado, USC, Arizona

Big 12 Championship:  Oklahoma (8-1) vs. Texas (7-2)
Both teams had the two best records in the conference.  Third place was WVU at 6-3.

Bowl eligible:  Texas, Oklahoma, WVU, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Baylor, TCU
No bowl:  Texas Tech, Kansas, Kansas State

College Football Playoff outlook
The first criteria established by the CFP committee is number of losses.  These teams have 1 loss or fewer:
-Alabama (12-0)
-Clemson (12-0)
-Notre Dame (12-0)
-Georgia (11-1)
-Oklahoma (11-1)
-Ohio State (11-1)
-UCF (11-0)

All of those teams except Notre Dame have a conference championship left to play.

Right off the bat, we can ignore UCF.  The committee is not going to respect them, even if they are undefeated, to allow them in the CFP.  (Especially considering the devastating injury to their QB this weekend.)  That means there are six teams in play for four spots.

It's safe to say that Notre Dame and Alabama are in the CFP.  Notre Dame is the only team currently guaranteed to enter bowl season undefeated, so you can't leave that team out.  Even if Alabama loses the SEC championship game, the rest of their season has elevated them enough to keep them in.

Which teams are "win and in"?  Obviously, Alabama and Clemson would get in as undefeated teams.  Georgia would most likely get in at 12-1 by having the most impressive win on their resume.  Outside of that, I believe the other teams would be at the mercy of the other games going on.

Oklahoma's only loss of the season came from Texas, who they will face again next weekend.  If they win, they could play the card that they beat every team they faced.

It's hard to say that any of these teams are definitely in a "lose and out" situation.  If all of them lose (obviously excluding the SEC winner), then we're still in the same situation we are now.

Ohio State probably has the worst loss (Purdue) of the bunch.  Their best chance at getting into the top four would be a Georgia loss combined with a Clemson or Oklahoma loss.

I think Clemson's biggest threat to the semi-finals would be a loss to Pitt combined with an Ohio State win, especially if Oklahoma wins on top of that.

I think the easiest path to the final four teams would be Alabama defeating Georgia, and then Oklahoma or Ohio State losing their title game.

Still have quite a bit to unpack here.

NY6 projections

Based on the most recent rankings, here are my projections for the New Year's Six bowls.

Cotton Bowl (semi-final)
#1 Alabama (projected SEC champ) vs. #4 Michigan (projected Big Ten champ)

Orange Bowl (semi-final)
#2 Clemson (projected ACC champ) vs. #3 Notre Dame

Sugar Bowl
#5 Georgia (projected SEC replacement team) vs. #6 Oklahoma (projected Big 12 champ)

Rose Bowl
#8 Washington State (projected Pac-12 champ) vs. #10 Ohio State (projected Big Ten replacement team)

Fiesta Bowl
#9 UCF (projected Group of 5 rep) vs. #11 Florida

Peach Bowl
#7 LSU vs. #12 Penn State

The G5 team is locked into the Fiesta Bowl, and I think Penn State gets pushed to the Peach Bowl simply to avoid matching up two SEC teams in the same bowl.  LSU and Florida could be interchangeable in this scenario.

Week 12 wrap up

The is the last week that we have to play "what if" or "if/then" with any of the conference races.  Two conferences already have their championship games set.  Two others have half of the matchup set, with a winner-take-all game set for the other side.

New Year's Six projections

Based on the most recent rankings, here are my projections for the New Year's Six bowls.

Cotton Bowl (semi-final)
#1 Alabama (projected SEC champ) vs. #4 Michigan (projected Big Ten champ)

Orange Bowl (semi-final)
#2 Clemson (projected ACC champ) vs. #3 Notre Dame

Sugar Bowl
#5 Georgia (projected SEC replacement team) vs. #6 Oklahoma (projected Big 12 champ)

Rose Bowl
#8 Washington State (projected Pac-12 champ) vs. #10 Ohio State (projected Big Ten replacement team)

Fiesta Bowl
#11 UCF (projected Group of 5 rep) vs.#7 LSU

Peach Bowl
#9 WVU vs. #12 Syracuse

The last two could go any way, except that the G5 team is going to the Fiesta Bowl.  I figure that LSU will travel better to Arizona than the other two teams, which will do better in Atlanta.

Week 11 wrap up

Could we have called this Separation Saturday?  A lot of teams got eliminated, and several races have come down to two teams.

Week 10 wrap up

The SEC is fully decided.  Does anyone want to win the Pac-12 South?  Is Maryland feeling nostalgic for the ACC with their one possible scenario to win the division?

Maryland's only chance to win the Big Ten East

I thought Maryland was out of contention for the Big Ten East, but then I saw one scenario that could give them the division.

Maryland would have to force a tie with Michigan at 6-3.  Due to the structure of the remaining schedule, such a tie would also have to involve Ohio State.

2018 Season Review: October Edition

What a month of shake-ups - particularly in the bottom part of the rankings throughout October! With just one month to go in the regular season, let's take a dive into the season that is (and what might still be).

Week 9 wrap up

We're finally eliminating some teams, and it turns out that we get a division clinched next weekend!  Meanwhile, the ACC Coastal is still trying their hardest to force a 7 way tie.

Week 8 wrap up

I feel like this was the lightest weekend of college football all year, with more than the usual number of teams on a bye.  Still, we're starting to eliminate a few teams from contention.

Oh, and Magic Number is back, ya'll!

Week 7 wrap up

How are we already halfway through the season already?  Just as we start getting to the majority of the bye weeks, we have a weekend of chaos that was just slightly below 2007 standards.

We're getting close to a few teams finally getting eliminated, but we can't quite pull the trigger.

Week 6 wrap up

We have 5 bowl eligible teams from the Power 5!

2018 Season Review: September Edition

Hard to believe that the first month is behind us already! And a 5-week month to boot!

Still much football to be played, but there are plenty of takeaways to digest!

Week 5 wrap up

Now we are finally getting to the meat of the schedule.  And, with it being week 5, that means that any currently undefeated teams will be looking for bowl eligibility next week.

Week 4 wrap up

Let's just keep the introduction short this week.  Quite a few teams had conference games.  In fact, only three teams (all Pac-12) have not had conference games yet this season.

Hurricane Florence and the ESPN schedule shuffle

With the hurricane, or at least threat of one, causing multiple cancellations this weekend, ESPN had to scramble to fill their schedule.  This allowed a few games originally planned for online only broadcasts to get promoted to real channels.

Yes, this is one of those "research" posts that won't matter in the grand scheme of things, but it's kind of fun for those of us interested in the broadcasting side of college football.

Week 3 wrap up

It was a weird week as a hurricane demolished ESPN's lineup, and will likely cause a few teams to only have 11 games this season.  Still had a few conference games, though.

We finally have every division with a conference game completed at this point, and next week should see a large uptick in conference games start.

Week 2 wrap up

I know this post is a little later than usual, but I got distracted by finally breaking the curse and seeing the Hokies win in person, and then dealing with preparations for the upcoming hurricane that is greatly affecting the week 3 schedule.

Week 1 wrap up

We're back!

But wait, did that just happen?  VT comes into Tallahassee in a nationally televised game with Kirk Herbstreit on the call, and with a no-name defense, and embarrasses Florida State?

I felt like I was in Bizarro World.

Oh, and it was a conference game, so the wheels started spinning early.

2018 Season Predictions

The time has come! One of my favorite weeks each year, leading into my favorite season! Not just fall...but college football season!

To that end, let's get down to forecasting the season that is about to come (and, for a handful of teams, actually began last weekend).

College Football 2018 - First Take

It's been a quiet off-season on this blog - much thanks to Chip for helping to bridge the gap earlier this Summer. But in the lead-up to Week 0, it's time to dig into 2018 for REAL!

The Myth of the Marquee Matchup

When the College Football Playoff was created, many folks claimed that it would lead to better in-season matchups between top teams, because teams would be willing to take the risk to increase their strength of schedule.  However, as we have gone through multiple seasons, the committee has made it clear that the top criteria they look at is number of losses.  I thought I would take a look at the teams that made the CFP or just missed it, and see if a slight change of schedule would have affected their ability to be selected.

Case Study: Power 5 Schedules

With discussions of conference vs. conference and winning percentages, I wanted to take a look at how different teams and different conferences create their schedules.  For example, Alabama has a good record against other Power 5 teams over the last few years, but a closer look at their schedule shows that they haven't played a Power 5 team out-of-conference outside of a neutral site game in at least 6 years.

Sit back, this is a long one with a lot of numbers.