Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Championship Game "What If": Wrapping it Up with the Big 12

This series started at the end of February when the ACC announced its plan to hold its champioship game in Charlotte through the end of this decade.  Well, 7 weeks and a Big Ten Primetime TV times announcement later, I've managed to get to the last of the 5 "Power Conferences" and see how championship game history might have been different with a change in venue.

A quick recap on the other Power Conferences:

ACC - perhaps an upset or two could have been saved having the game at home campuses, but Charlotte has proven to be a great location since 2010.

Big Ten and PAC-12 - with only 3 championship games apiece, it's hard to make any solid conclusions.   But I think each conference got the location right (Indy for the Big Ten, home sites for the PAC-12).

SEC - several games have either featured a significant favorite that held up, or two monster teams that were virtually a wash with regards to national championship impact.  While very little would probably be different in over 20 years of SEC Championships, it's hard to argue with the success of the game in the Georgia Dome.

And now, the one that is no more (at least for now...apparently, the NCAA is considering being more lax with the rules to allow conferences more autonomy in determining their champions).  The Big 12 has had a handful of locations, most frequently Kansas City, St. Louis, or somewhere in Texas.  But in 2011, when the Big 12 Conference stopped having 12 teams, the championship game has ceased.  Let's take one last look and see how things might have changed at the home of the team with the best conference record.

1996: Texas at Nebraska.
Real Life: Unranked Texas pulls a major upset, beating Nebraska 37-27 in St. Louis.  Nebraksa had a 24-23 lead after 3 quarters.
What If: In Lincoln, the fans don't let up.  Nebraksa quite possibly hangs on for the win.

1997: Texas A&M at Nebraska.
Real Life: Nebraska whoops A&M 54-15 in San Antonio.
What If: Probably a similar result in Lincoln.

1998: Texas A&M at Kansas State
Real Life: In St. Louis, A&M overcomes a 15-point 4th quarter defecit to shock #2 Kansas State in double overtime.
What If: In Manhattan, the crowd makes sure A&M doesn't get back into it.  The Wildcats then go play Tennessee in the first BCS Championship Game in the Fiesta Bowl.

1999: Texas at Nebraska
Real Life: #3 Nebraska beats #12 Texas 22-6 in San Antonio.
What If: Probably a similar result in Lincoln.

2000: Kansas State at Oklahoma
Real Life: In Kansas City, #1 Oklahoma edges out Kansas State 27-24.  The game was tied after 3 quarters.
What If: The Sooners probably win more convincingly in Norman.  With a stronger performance, perhaps Florida State isn't an 11-point favorite in the BCS Title Game, leading to some more Seminole scheming - and possibly Bobby Bowden, not Bob Stoops, claiming a crystal trophy.

2001: Colorado at Texas (both teams 7-1, Texas won head-to-head in regular season)
Real Life: Colorado gets revenge in Irving, TX with a 39-37 upset.
What If: Tough to say.  Even though the real game happened in Texas, I'm sure there were more Colorado fans that attended than there would have been in Austin (though there would have still been the revenge factor).  With a possible National Championship Game berth on the line, I think the Texas faithful does just enough to keep the Longhorns ahead (though they still lose to the super-talented Miami Hurricanes a month later in the Rose Bowl).

2002: Oklahoma at Colorado.
Real Life: In Houston, Oklahoma beats Colorado for the 2nd time that season (the first time being in Norman).
What If: Hard to say what Boulder would have brought.  The Sooners beat Colorado convincingly both times, but they were both in Sooner-friendly territory.  Oklahoma lost 2 road games (at Oklahoma State, and at Texas A&M), so it's certainly possibly the Sooner Magic gets lost on the way to Colorado.  My gut tells me the Sooners pull it off, but that it's close.

2003: Kansas State at Oklahoma
Real Life: K-State pulls off a big upset, dominating #1 Oklahoma 35-7 in Kansas City.  Oklahoama remains #1 in the BCS, primarily due to a more objectively-based formula.
What If: With that much difference, it's hard to see Oklahoma making up so much ground - even in Norman.  K-State still wins, not by as much, and Oklahoma still plays (and loses to) LSU in the BCS Title Game. 

2004: Colorado at Oklahoma
Real Life: Heavy favorite and #2 Oklahoma dominates Colorado 42-3 in Kansas City.
What If: Probably a similar result in Norman.

2005: Colorado at Texas
Real Life: Heavy favorite and #2 Texas dominates Colorado even worse - 70 to 3 - in Houston.
What If: Probably a similar result in Austin.

2006: Nebraska at Oklahoma
Real Life: Oklahoma wins convincingly against Nebraska - 21 to 7 - in Kansas City.
What If: Given the passion of the Oklahoma-Nebraska rivalry, the Sooners probably win even more convincingly in Norman.  However, I wonder if they go overboard and don't even get it to within an overtime loss against Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl.

2007: Oklahoma at Missouri
Real Life: In San Antonio, Oklahoma beats Missouri for the 2nd time in 2007 (the first time being in Norman)
What If: With a #1 ranking, BCS Title hopes, and the revenge factor, the Tigers have a great chance to pull off a win in Columbia.  However, the Sooners did win convincingly both times (albeit in Sooner-friendly confines), making this hypothetical a real toss-up.

2008: Missouri at Oklahoma
Real Life: This time a heavy favorite, Oklahoma blasts Missouri 62-21 in Kansas City.
What If: Probably a similar result in Norman

2009: Nebraska at Texas
Real Life: A modern classic in Cowboys Stadium, with Texas getting one more second to edge out Nebraska 13-12 to make it to the National Championship Game. 
What If: Probably a competitive game, though perhaps not down to the absolute last play.  Texas wins by about a touchdown in Austin.

2010: Nebraska at Oklahoma (both teams 6-2, no regular season head-to-head, Oklahoma higher in the BCS Rankings)
Real Life: At Cowboys Stadium, Oklahoma comes back from 17 points behind to win 23-20.
What If: Oklahoma probably doesn't go down by 17 in Norman, with the magnitude of this rivalry and Nebraska heading out to the Big Ten the following season, and wins more convincingly.


While I agree 100% with the ACC, SEC, Big Ten, and PAC-12's approaches to where they hold their games, I don't know if I'm sold on the way it was done in the Big 12.  With the locations either being "Big 12 North" cities or "Big 12 South" cities, it really paid to be a reasonable underdog in a year that just so happened to coincide with a location in your favor - somewhat of a random draw, if you will.

This was clearly the most upset-prone conference championship game of them all, and it is certainly missed. That hasn't stopped de-facto championships in 2011 and 2013, and if the NCAA eases up, then we could be looking at different criteria altogether (no divisions, 12 teams not necessary, etc.).

Well, now that we've looked at how things might have been a little different with all the Championship Games being done differently, I look forward to seeing where the future really does take us.  On to the 2014 season and the inaugural College Football Playoff!

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