What would the BCS have given us this year?

What if the CFP hadn't come into existence and we were still watching the BCS?  I've gone through and come up with what I feel are the most likely bowl matchups.  I'm basing my rankings off of the AP Poll, which I feel is much closer to what the BCS formula would have determined rather than the CFP poll.  I'm also keeping with the current rule of the Power 5 conferences, thus determining that the American (formerly Big East) would have been bumped out of the AQ this season regardless of the playoff.  This also means that the bowls probably aren't playing hot potato with the conference champ without a guaranteed home.

The hardest part of this little exercise is determining the exact matchups.  I looked back to the January 2007 BCS games (for the 2006 season), and trying to see if there was any sort of pattern.

2007 - Sugar, Orange, Fiesta
2008 - Orange, Fiesta, Sugar
2009 - Fiesta, Sugar, Orange
2010 - Orange, Fiesta, Sugar
2011 - Sugar, Orange, Fiesta
2012 - Fiesta, Sugar, Orange
2013 - Fiesta, Sugar, Orange
2014 - Orange, Sugar, Fiesta

Of course, there is no discernible pattern.  Perhaps it had to do with historical performance of the conferences tied to those bowls, and how often the bowl would have to find a replacement team anyway.

For this exercise, I will say that the Sugar Bowl would get first choice, seeing as how they rarely got that option.  Since the Orange and Fiesta Bowls are evenly split between second and third choices (both have been #2 twice and #3 three times out of eight years), I just have to pick one.  I'm going with Orange for the second choice, since they have been third choice more often.

So, to be clear, the selection order that I'm using is Sugar, Orange, Fiesta.

The BCS had the rule that each conference could only send a maximum of 2 teams to the bowls.  The only non-AQ team in the AP Poll is Boise State at #21, and that includes teams in the American.  Therefore, they are not high enough to qualify, nor would they be attractive enough for an at-large.

So, pretty much, the Power 5 would all be guaranteed two teams in BCS bowls.

National Championship:  #1 Florida State (ACC champs) vs. #2 Alabama (SEC champs)
I think the only reason the AP switched the rankings was to follow the committee.

Rose Bowl:  #3 Oregon (Pac-12 champs) vs. #5 Ohio State (B1G champs)
The traditional matchup could have actually happened in the playoff if the committee had flipped a couple of seeds.

Sugar Bowl:  #8 Mississippi State (SEC replacement) vs. #6 TCU (Big 12, at-large)
I'm pretty sure the Sugar Bowl would like to keep an SEC team if at all possible, and Mississippi State was the highest one left.  For the at-large spots, I simply took the highest ranked teams available and went in that order.

Orange Bowl:  #10 Georgia Tech (ACC runner-up) vs. #7 Michigan State (B1G, at-large)
There is a slight chance the Sugar Bowl would want Michigan State (you would know that MSU would win), but I think TCU would travel better to the Sugar Bowl.

Fiesta Bowl:  #4 Baylor (Big 12 champs) vs. #12 Arizona (Pac-12, at-large)
Baylor beat TCU head-to-head, and thus would earn the BCS bid, even if the Big 12 decided to backtrack on their own rules.  #9 Ole Miss and #11 Kansas State both get left out due to the two team restriction, although Kansas State probably wouldn't have made it in anyway as the BCS would have avoided in-conference rematches unless it was the SEC in the title game.