Conference Championship Games: Battle of the “Best”?

With the Big 12 Commissioner’s statements about Conference Championship Game (CCG) deregulation, fan discussions have started once again regarding how these championship games ought to be.

The NCAA legislation is still forthcoming, and it’s hard to say exactly what will be allowed under the new rules.  Whether we have more conferences with a divisionless setup, the status quo of two divisions, or even three divisions, it’ll be interesting to see how things operate.

Much of the discussion has focused on “the best two teams” participating in the CCG.  And while logic would suggest that a championship should be contested by “the best”, is it really something that is absolutely necessary, or even possible, 100% of the time?

Top Two Teams

Some CCG’s between the clear-cut top two include:

• 2008 and 2009: Florida vs Alabama

• 2010: Virginia Tech vs Florida State

• 2011: Virginia Tech vs Clemson

• 2012: Kent State vs Northern Illinois

• 2013: Ohio State vs Michigan State; Marshall vs Rice

• 2014: Oregon vs Arizona; Florida State vs Georgia Tech

“Snubbed” from the CCG

While some of the above games were absolute classics, it’s certainly not something that happens all the time.  A few teams that have arguably been “snubbed” from theirown CCG’s, despite being a clear-cut #2, include:

• Ole Miss, 2003.  The Rebels finished 7-1, but Georgia made the SEC CG by winning the East at 6-2.

• Miami, 2005.  The Hurricanes finished 6-2, but Florida State made the ACC CG by winning the Atlantic at 5-3.

• Stanford, 2011…and Oregon, 2012.  Both teams finished 8-1 in both years.  UCLA represented the South both years, despite a 5-4 record in 2011 (USC at 7-2 would have went if not for probation) and a 6-3 record in 2012 (UCLA won the South outright in 2012).

• Clemson, 2012 and 2013.  In both cases, the Tigers were 7-1 in ACC play.  In 2012, Georgia Tech represented the Coastal Division (coming out of a 3-way tie with sanctioned UNC and Miami).  In 2013, Duke won the Coastal Division outright at 6-2.

Hidden Benefits

While Clemson is a great example of a team that has been “robbed” of competing for the ACC title, despite being the second-best team in the ACC in 2012 and 2013, one could also argue the Tigers have benefitted from being in such a position, particularly in 2013.  

In 2013, the 10-2 Tigers were #12 in the BCS, and were picked by the Orange Bowl to replace the BCS Title Game-bound Seminoles – a thriller against Ohio State that Clemson ended up winning!  Had Clemson played in and won the rematch, FSU would have dropped out of Title Game contention, with the Tigers still in the Orange Bowl. Had Clemson lost, the 10-3 Tigers would probably have dropped out of BCS range altogether.

Other instances where a team arguably “benefitted” by avoiding a CCG:

• Kansas, 2007.  The Jayhawks missed out on the Big 12 Championship Game by virtue of its head-to-head loss against Missouri on Thanksgiving weekend, though their 7-1 conference record was good enough for second-best in the Big 12.  However, by remaining 11-1, Kansas managed to nab an Orange Bowl spot over two-loss Missouri when the Tigers lost to two-loss Oklahoma in the Big 12 CG.  The Jayhawks would end up winning the Orange Bowl (at the expense of my Hokies) and finishing 12-1, which would not have been possible had they played Missouri again (win and it’s the Fiesta Bowl, lose and it’s no BCS Bowl at all most likely).

• Stanford, 2010.  Now, granted, this was by virtue of there still being the PAC-10 without a CCG at all (though, Oregon and Stanford would have both likely been in the same division had there been divisions).  At this point, before Stanford was considered “cool” again, they almost got left out of the BCS altogether before their lofty 11-1 record carried them into the #4 spot and an application of the “3/4 Rule”.  Had there been a CCG, with Oregon and Stanford, a win would have knocked Oregon out of the BCS Title Game, while a loss would have likely knocked the Cardinal out of the BCS.  Instead, Stanford got to enjoy an Orange Bowl romp (again, at the expense of my Hokies), a 12-1 finish, and a program resurgence.

• Alabama 2011!  No one benefitted more than this team.  Another loss to LSU in Atlanta, and Bama’s National Championshp hopes are done.  A win against the Tigers, and we could have been looking at a BCS Rubber Match in New Orleans (ugh!), or maybe an Alabama-Oklahoma State title game.  Considering the real-life end result (Alabama vs LSU in the BCS Title Game, with Bama winning big) directly attributing to the creation of the CFP, I suppose we all benefitted from that one after all!

Conclusion

As you can see, no setup is perfect, though each does have its virtues.  As the conferences continually debate whether “the best two teams” should be in the CCG, it’ll be important for those conferences to balance fairness, competitive balance, attractiveness to fans and TV partners, all with the conferences’ own post-season aspirations.