College Football Hypotheticals

May 9 marks the midpoint between the 2014 season’s Championship Game and the 2015 season’s kickoff.  And with the offseason in full swing, I thought I’d take a look at some hypotheticals that have been discussed throughout the college football community.

Undefeated but Unimpressive

Last year, Florida State finished as the only unbeaten team in FBS.  And predictably, they made the College Football Playoff.  Not so predictable was FSU’s #3 seed!  Recently, Florida State’s Board of Trustees expressed concern over their late-season slip in the 2014 CFP Rankings.  One trustee specifically blamed the bias against the ACC.

Ultimately, what I believe caused FSU to slip in the rankings was the unconvincing fashion in which the Seminoles kept winning (see Oklahoma State, Boston College, Florida).  The reactions were varied:

• The goal is to WIN!  Florida State is the only unbeaten, they should be #1!

• You can’t keep an unbeaten, let alone the ONLY unbeaten, from a Power Five out of the CFP!

• If one, two, or even three 1-loss teams can be ranked above FSU, why not four?  

In the Rose Bowl, those Seminole pessimists were vindicated: Oregon defeated FSU by a pretty large margin (59-20, to be exact).

So, moving forward, how should the committee treat these undefeated teams in the future?  

• Will they point to the results from FSU and say “that’s not a Top 4 team!”?  

• Will an undefeated Power Conference team always finish in the Top 4, no matter what?

• Or, is this all a moot point, with 2014 simply being an anomaly?

Army/Navy Game and the New Year’s Six

A point of discussion among the Group of Five teams has been the possibility of the Army/Navy Game impacting the G5’s automatic New Year’s Six spot.  

With Navy joining the American Conference in 2015, the Midshipmen could theoretically win the conference, be the highest-ranked G5 team, and earn a place in the New Year’s Six.  However, with the Army/Navy Game a week after the final CFP Rankings, it’s possible that an upset by Army could throw a wrinkle into things.  I agree that this should be addressed; and I’ve seen a few proposals:

• Move the Army/Navy Game to earlier in the season

• Move the final CFP ranking release to after the Army/Navy Game

• Declare Army and Navy ineligible for inclusion in the CFP or a New Year’s Six Bowl

• Keep the status quo; let the final rankings after Championship Saturday “speak”.

Personally, I think a compromise would work best for all.  Perhaps something like:

• Keep the Army/Navy Game in its current unique time slot (concession to Army/Navy).

• If another G5 champ is ahead of American Champion Navy, award the NY6 slot to that team – even if Navy is somewhat close in the rankings (concession to rest of G5 conferences).  

• Allow for contingency agreements where necessary, to allow for the possibility that Navy might “barely” be the highest-ranked G5 team, or that Navy or Army could be close to CFP or NY6 At-Large range (fair to all).

Regardless of what compromises/decisions are made, it’ll be interesting to see how Navy and Army progress over the rest of the CFP cycle.  Might this all be simply academic?

Overreactions from Year One

As the conferences and teams do what they can to enhance their playoff chances, it’s seems to me that some might be looking at 2014 a little too closely.

Some fallacies I’ve seen include:

• Having a Conference Championship Game is an absolute must!  The Big 12 is in bad shape without one!  They all need to be changed!

• The ACC is an inferior conference, since unbeaten FSU finished below one-loss Alabama and Oregon.  A 12-1 ACC Champ will never stand a chance!

• The system’s biased toward “name brand” teams.  It’s all about the money!

• A Group of Five team will never come close to contending for a Playoff Spot!

Truth be told, no two seasons of college football are exactly the same.  That’s part of the magic of the sport!  And as much as I certainly understand the desire for teams to maximize their potential, I also think it’s critical that the conferences and schools remember to keep things in perspective.

• A CCG can bounce a team out of the Top 4 just as much as it can help.  Also, refer to my recent post concerning CCG’s to see some of the other benefits of the different conference setups.

• Being a consistently dominant team, along with beating other strong teams, is what ultimately leads to top rankings.  If an ACC team, or any team, can do this, they’ll be just fine!

• Was the resume of the non-“name brand” team clearly better?  If not, then it’s all speculative.  Based on other committee decisions (FSU’s ranking, Oregon/Ohio State not matched in the Rose Bowl), I am convinced that moving forward, the best four teams will play.

• I don’t know about the G5 one way or the other.  But I do know that I’m not going to use 2-loss Boise State – or Marshall’s ranking before its loss – as my definitive reference.