2015 Look-Ahead: Back to a Bowl (Power 5 Edition)

When predicting bowl matchups, I’ve seen instances where the teams from the previous year were simply copied, pasted, and shuffled to be consistent with preseason rankings. And often with rational explanations. But looking through some recent history, I cannot agree with an approach that simple. 

 

In each of the last 5 years, anywhere from 6 to 9 Power-Conference teams found themselves bowl eligible after failing to reach the 6-6 mark the previous year. Those years/teams are as follows:

 

 

2010 (8 teams)

NC State, Maryland, Kansas State, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois, Washington, Mississippi State

 

2011 (9 teams)

UVA, Wake Forest, Purdue, Texas, Iowa State, Arizona State, Cal, UCLA, Vanderbilt

 

2012 (6 teams)

Duke, Minnesota, Texas Tech, Oregon State, Arizona, Ole Miss

 

2013 (6 teams)

Maryland, Boston College, Iowa, Washington State, Auburn, Missouri

 

2014 (7 teams)

NC State, TCU, West Virginia, Illinois, Utah, Tennessee, Florida

I didn't include the Big East, even though it was an AQ conference from 2010-13. I also didn't include teams returning from sanctions (e.g. USC, Miami, Penn State).

So, tying this in to 2015, the "pool" of bowl ineligible Power Conference teams are listed below. I limit this piece to P5 teams, since - generally speaking - a P5 team that is eligible for a bowl will go to one (not quite the case with the Group of 5).

 

Bowl-Ineligible P5 Teams from 2014

ACC (3): Syracuse, Wake Forest, Virginia

Big 12 (3): Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech

Big Ten (4): Indiana, Michigan, Northwestern, Purdue

PAC-12 (4): Cal, Colorado, Oregon State, Washington State

SEC (2): Kentucky, Vanderbilt

 

It's hard to imagine this entire pool of 16 teams staying below 6-6 in 2015. Many predictions are quick to include Michigan and new coach Jim Harbaugh as heading back to a bowl. But who else?

 

I'll follow the trend from 2010-14 and predict 6 teams heading back to the postseason. Those half dozen are as follows:

• Michigan (I don't predict much higher than 6-6, but I do give Harbaugh credit)
• Kentucky (so close last year, I think the growth continues)
• Wake Forest (the best chance, in my opinion, of the three ACC teams...and the best coach)
• Texas Tech (offensively positioned the best out of the Big 12 teams)
• California (high-powered offense, like Washington State, but slightly more balanced)
• Indiana (Kevin Wilson has had the Hoosiers on the cusp...2015 they get it done)

Stay tuned for the pessimistic cousin to this piece - teams staying home - in the next week or so.