Looking at a 9 game ACC schedule

The rumors and discussions are starting to swirl again about the ACC possible adding a ninth conference game to its schedule.  One of the major points would be an increase in inventory for ESPN.  It's easy to see how a ninth conference game will increase the quality of the ACC package, but would it necessarily increase the quantity?



ESPN owns the rights to any home game played by an ACC team.  Just with conference matchups, that would be 56 games a year (14 teams with 4 home games, or you can look at it as there are a maximum of 7 conference games per week, and 8 weeks of conference games).  All of the teams have at least two home OOC games, most of the teams have three.  At a minimum, that adds 28 additional games.

Expanding to 9 conference games would only increase the number of ACC vs. ACC games to 63.

So, let's break it down, and see how a 9 game schedule would affect the 2016 slate of games.  I chose 2016, because it was easier to find than to track down all of the individual teams' future schedules, which are not all as complete as others.

These teams have 3 home OOC games:  Boston College, Clemson, NC State, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Pitt
These teams have 2 home OOC games:  FSU, Louisville, Duke, Miami, UNC, UVA, VT

FSU, UNC, and VT each have a neutral site OOC game, which for the purposes of this exercise, I will not be counting, because TV deals can get a little weird for those.

That provides ESPN with rights to 35 nonconference games, for a total of 91 games in the ACC TV package.

Now let's try to figure out which games each team is most likely to drop in favor of a ninth conference game.  We have to keep in mind that in 2016, the Atlantic teams would be travelling to Coastal teams.  While we as fans would probably just love to drop the FCS team off of the schedule, we also have to keep in mind that schools like as many home games as possible.  Of course, this exercise is not completely accurate, because any expansion of conference games would come with enough time to restructure existing deals to push games into future seasons.

Boston College (7 home games)

at UMass, Wagner, Buffalo, UConn

Most likely to drop: at UMass

Clemson (7 home games)

at Auburn, Troy, SC St., South Carolina

Most likely to drop: at Auburn  (Dabo's already been complaining about the ninth game)

Florida State (6 home games)

vs. Ole Miss, Charleston Southern, at USF, Florida

Most likely to drop: at USF

Louisville (6 home games)

Charlotte, at Marshall, at Houston, Kentucky

Most likely to drop: at Marshall or at Houston

NC State (7 home games)

William and Mary, at ECU, ODU, Notre Dame

Most likely to drop: at ECU

Syracuse (7 home games)

Colgate, USF, at UConn, Notre Dame

Most likely to drop: at UConn

(I don't think Syracuse would get rid of the FCS game, and it's a toss up between USF and UConn, which I'm sure are both part of longer deals.  I think the UConn game would be easier to attempt to reschedule.  Plus, it would keep them at 7 home games.)

Wake Forest (7 home games)

Tulane, Delaware, at Indiana, Army

Most likely to drop: I could see any of them dropping, really.

Duke (6 home games)

NC Central, at Northwestern, at Notre Dame, Army

Most likely to drop: any except Notre Dame

Georgia Tech (7 home games)

Mercer, Vanderbilt, Ga. Southern, at Georgia

Most likely to drop: really doesn't matter, because they're replacing a home with a home game

Miami (6 home games)

Florida A&M, FAU, at App St., at Notre Dame

Most likely to drop: at App St

UNC (6 home games)
vs. Georgia, at Illinois, JMU, The Citadel

Most likely to drop:  JMU or The Citadel

Pitt (7 home games)

Villanova, Penn State, at Oklahoma St, Marshall

Most likely to drop:  Villanova or Marshall

UVA (6 home games)
Richmond, at Oregon, at UConn, Central Michigan

Most likely to drop: Central Michigan

VT (6 home games)

Liberty, vs. Tennessee, ECU, at Notre Dame

Most likely to drop:  Liberty or ECU

Just for fun, because I don't think it really affects any of the numbers, here are my proposed ninth games:  Boston College at UVA, Clemson at VT, Florida State at Pitt, Louisville at UNC, NC State at GT, Syracuse at Duke, Wake Forest at Miami

Pretty much, if an Atlantic team drops an away game or a Coastal team drops a home game, it doesn't affect the number of games that ESPN gets.  In this scenario, we have Miami replacing an away game with a home game, so that adds one overall.   Duke could end up adding one, but Wake Forest would most likely drop one.  It appears that overall, ESPN would only be adding 3 games at best.

Thinking ahead, and trying to work with a blank slate, would the inventory increase that much?

I would imagine that in most years, teams would be scheduling at least two home OOC games, especially in the years that they have 5 away conference games.  The Notre Dame deal does put a bit of a monkey wrench into those numbers, especially since NBC has the home game rights for that.

Let's just assume that in most years, 7 teams will have 7 home games, and 7 teams will have 6 home games.  That still leaves us at 91 total home ACC games for ESPN to broadcast.  The maximum number of home games will be 8 for one division and 7 for the other, which would reach a total of 105 games, and that's assuming all OOC games are played at home.  But we have to subtract 2 or 3 for Notre Dame games, and then either 1 or 3 for the SEC rival games.  So, it's really only somewhere between 99 and 102 games available.

Ultimately, I don't think the quantity of the ESPN inventory is going to be a factor so much as the quality.