College Football 2018 - First Take

It's been a quiet off-season on this blog - much thanks to Chip for helping to bridge the gap earlier this Summer. But in the lead-up to Week 0, it's time to dig into 2018 for REAL!




Bowl Outlook
This is Year 5 of the College Football Playoff. As was the case in Year 2, the semi-finals will be the Orange and Cotton Bowls.

This means that:

• The ACC Champ is guaranteed a spot in the New Year's Six (specifically, the Peach or Fiesta Bowls) if not in the CFP. But if the ACC champ is Playoff-bound, then a second ACC team is NOT guaranteed a NY6 spot.
• The SEC, Big Ten, PAC-12 and Big 12 are guaranteed a second NY6 spot if any of their champs are in the Playoff.
• The highest-ranked Group of Five champ will almost certainly find itself in the Fiesta Bowl.
• Since the Orange Bowl is a semi-final, the Big Ten/ACC Citrus/Orange agreement is not in play. This means that the 2019 Citrus Bowl will be SEC-Big Ten. And the first non-NY6 pick for the ACC (and Notre Dame, if applicable) will be the Camping World Bowl.

Season Outlook

The AP Preseason Poll has pegged Alabama at #1 yet again. I don't have a problem with it, since all of the rankings will ultimately work themselves out.

Clemson was a solid #2 pre-season, with a handful of first-place votes. Last time the Tigers were #2, they won it all (that's right, just 2 years ago). In fact, beginning with the 2011 season, Clemson has been able to meet or beat its pre-season ranking each season. Props to Dabo and the Tigers!

Another big change: the Redshirt Rule! With players now able to play up to four games without counting against their redshirt year, will the new rule reshape the game? If so, how will it in 2018?

Some more questions to consider:

• Will TWO power conference get left out of the CFP again? What if Notre Dame ends up being a factor?
• Can a Group of Five team make it higher than UCF's high-point of 12 in the CFP rankings? Would a Boise State win at Oklahoma State help the Broncos land a Top 10 spot if they're undefeated?
• Or how about the team that gets Boise in Week 1? Could this be the year Troy (or any team from the Sun Belt) cracks the rankings and contends for that NY6 spot?
• Which Big Ten East teams, of the four ranked, will end up being the real deal? Will any falter under the pressure and rack up a few too many losses?
• Washington vs Auburn will be our first Top 10 matchup, Week 1 Saturday afternoon. What's not so obvious: when will we get our second?

Coming up next week, I will go full-predictor mode as we get ready for the season proper. 

Revisiting 2017 Picks

Until then, I will leave you with some of my pearls of "wisdom" from last year's picks:

• ACC: picked FSU over Miami (right loser, wrong winner...boy, did FSU disappoint)
• Big 12: picked OK St over K-State (actual: Oklahoma over TCU)
• Big Ten: picked Wisconsin over Ohio State (right matchup, wrong outcome)
• PAC-12: picked USC over Washington State (right winner, wrong loser)
• SEC: picked Alabama over Florida (right winner, wrong loser)
• American: picked USF over Memphis (right loser, wrong winner, right about NY6 play-in)
• C-USA: picked Southern Miss over ODU (actual: FL Atlantic over North Texas)
• MAC: picked Ohio over Toledo (actual: Toledo over Akron)
• Mountain West: picked Wyoming over Hawaii (actual: Boise over Fresno)
• Sun Belt: Arkansas State, then App State (actual: App State and Troy co-champs, Ark St 3rd)
• SUMMARY: none exactly right, 2 right winners, 2 right losers, 1 right matchup (but wrong outcome)

• CFP: only picked one of four, but I did pick the right Sugar Bowl and overall Champ in Alabama
• Other CFP picks: Wisconsin (close), Oklahoma State (not so close), Florida State (D'OH!)
• Under-estimated: Oklahoma, Clemson, and Georgia (at least I had Clemson in the NY6)

• NY6: correctly picked Ohio State, Penn State, and USC as non-CFP NY6 teams
• NY6 "bad" picks: LSU, Kansas State, Washington State, USF

• Other miscellaneous predictions:
• ACC just misses a 3rd NY6 team but has another strong bowl season (wrong)
• A "coach reunion" bowl such as Miami-Georgia or VT-TCU (wrong)
• Texas and Oklahoma each top out at 8-9 wins with first year head coaches (wrong, but the average of the two going into bowls was exactly 9)
• Michigan State and Notre Dame both end up ranked, but in the lower portion (right about both being ranked, but both ended up Top 15)
• Kentucky contends for the SEC East but comes up just short to Florida (wrong about the first part, but right about the second part in terms of their in-season matchup)
• Oregon upsets Washington but struggles early, while USC clinches the South by early November (wrong about Oregon, right about USC)
• No true CFP contender from the Group of Five; USF lives up to expectations (right about CFP; wrong about USF)