Saturday, December 8, 2018

2018 Season Thoughts: Post-Regular Season

From the August Week 0 games to today's Army-Navy game, the regular season is now in the books. With that being the case, let's look back on what made it so different/special.




Multiple Unbeaten Teams
For the first time since 2010, we have more than one bowl-eligible "power" team that finished undefeated*. And for the first time since 2004, we have more than two**. Regardless of opinions over whether Ohio State, Georgia, or Oklahoma finished in that #4 spot, I'm just glad we have the CFP in place for this year's Alabama, Clemson, and Notre Dame teams.

For the third year in a row, we have an unbeaten Group of Five team. The 2016 season let us Row the Boat with Western Michigan, while the past two seasons have given us the UCF Knights. All three teams found their way into the New Year's Six, with the Head Coach sticking around for the game. It looks like this year's UCF team is special in two ways: (1) the CFP Committee actually put them in the Top 10, and (2) it looks like Head Coach Josh Heupel will continue on with UCF. The Fiesta Bowl against LSU figures to be an entertaining showdown, with neither team employing the "didn't want to be there" excuse.

* In 2012 we had Notre Dame and Ohio State at 12-0, but tOSU was bowl-banned.
** This doesn't count 2009, which saw Cincinnati (part of the then-AQ Big East) join Alabama and Texas as undefeated. Nor does it count 2010, where TCU (still in the non-AQ Mountain West) join Auburn and Oregon as undefeated.


Top 4 Teams
Everyone has an opinion on who #4 should have been. As far as I'm concerned, I was quite pleased to see the order come out the way it did.

  • Alabama and Clemson - No discussion needed. Clear-cut top two, and in that order.
  • Notre Dame should not have been dropped just because of its 12-game schedule. The Irish, although not world-beaters, were quite balanced and wound up undefeated against some good wins and a back-end travel stretch.
  • Oklahoma, although not a defensive stalwart, really controlled just about every game. People point to the close games, but I counter that the Sooners were up multi-scores in just about all of them and managed to drain the clock very effectively. That's how a Prevent Defense is supposed to work!
  • Georgia played close against Alabama, yes. But it wasn't really a "back-and-forth, Bama had the ball last" kind of game. Georgia flat-out CHOKED...AGAIN! Despite Herbie's pleas, this just does not warrant keeping a Top 4 ranking vs. Oklahoma, much less passing up Notre Dame! Kudos to the committee for proving they weren't just an extension of ESPN.
  • I could have lived with Ohio State at 5, but I'm glad to see the committee remind us that 1-loss champ isn't the end-all, be-all. Some might argue that this was a token gesture, and might have gone the other way if this were between 4 and 5 (instead of 5 and 6). But this should give hope to 2-loss teams, even non-champs, in future years if the situation is just right.

New Year's Six Thoughts
  • I'm a little surprised that Washington State got punished the way it did for a fairly competitive loss in the snow-filled Apple Cup. I thought the Cougars would have been well-suited ahead of Florida and LSU (giving the PAC-12 a second NY6 team, rather than the SEC getting a 4th). But I also looked over the computer numbers, which seemed to have WSU in a position to how the committee ranked them. I guess the margin of error really was just that thin.
  • I wonder how many people thought we'd actually see a "Champ vs Champ" non-semifinal Rose or Sugar Bowl in the CFP era? Well, we've got that in Ohio State and Washington! And with this being Urban Meyer's swan-song, it should be a memorable one!
  • Florida and Michigan again?!? Apparently, UF's Athletic Director (a CFP committee member) said he did not try to steer the committee away from a UF-UCF matchup. Whether or not you actually buy that, the committee does have a rankings justification: Michigan is higher-ranked than UCF, so the Wolverines get the closer spot in Atlanta. Same thing with Florida and LSU (with the Gators also touting a head-to-head over LSU).
  • In the other two out of three years, Syracuse would have been in a NY6 Bowl - getting the back-fill spot in the Orange Bowl. With a Rose/Sugar semi, it would have been Syracuse-Georgia. With Peach/Fiesta, it would have been Syracuse-Michigan. Tough break for 'Cuse and the ACC, though the lack of NY6 at-large could prove helpful with the overall bowl record.

Revisiting Preseason Predictions
Instead of waiting to the cusp of next season, I'll man up and own my wrongness right here and now!

- Conference Champs:

  • ACC: Clemson over Miami (right Champ, wrong loser [Pitt])
  • Big Ten: Wisconsin over Michigan (wrong on both [Ohio State over Northwestern])
  • Big 12: Oklahoma over West Virginia (right Champ, wrong 2nd place [Texas])
  • PAC-12: Washington over USC (right Champ, wrong loser [Utah])
  • SEC: Alabama over Georgia (exactly right)
  • American: Memphis over UCF (right matchup, wrong outcome)
  • Conference USA: Florida Atlantic over North Texas (wrong on both [UAB over Mid Tenn])
  • MAC: Ohio over Toledo (wrong on both [NIU over Buffalo])
  • Mountain West: Boise State over Hawaii (one right participant [Fresno over Boise])
  • Sun Belt: Arkansas State over Troy (wrong on both [App State over Louisiana])
On one hand, I got 4 of the 5 Power Conference Champs correct. My Group of Five picks...much more humbling.

- CFP/New Year's Six:

  • Orange Semifinal: Alabama (correct) vs Wisconsin (actual: Oklahoma)
  • Cotton Semifinal: Clemson (correct) vs Washington (actual: Notre Dame)
  • Rose: Stanford vs Michigan (Michigan in a different NY6 bowl, Stanford slipped back)
  • Sugar: Georgia (correct) vs Oklahoma (actual: Texas)
  • Peach: Miami vs Ohio State (Buckeyes in a better spot, Miami underachieved)
  • Fiesta: Boise State vs West Virginia (nope!)
2/4 CFP picks (and in the right spots); 3/8 non-semifinal NY6 picks (one in the right spot).

- Miscellaneous Picks:

  • The ACC will have the greatest number of bowl teams - at least 11 
    • Correct, with the SEC also having 11
  • In the Big Ten, Nebraska will emerge as one of the stronger teams by season's end, but not before taking a couple of losses to wind up out of division contention 
    • Somewhat correct. Nebraska got stronger as the season went on, but to call them "one of the stronger teams" would be a stretch.
  • In the Big 12, Texas takes a step up. I count on Tom Herman and the Longhorns to finish ranked in the Top 15.
    • Correct. And right at #15 in the final CFP Poll!
  • In the PAC-12, Kevin Sumlin and Arizona will have the most success of the first-year head coaches. Good (let's say 9-3), but not quite good enough to make it to Santa Clara.
    • Oops!
  • In the SEC, Auburn takes a step back, and the "we love Gus-we can't stand Gus" pendulum swings back to the darker side.
    • Correct on this one.
  • The Group of Five race will come down to the final weekend, with at least THREE conferences in contention. Boise will be the clear front-runner, with a solid win at Oklahoma State.
    • Somewhat correct. Boise disappointed! But it did come down to the last weekend for the American and Mountain West to contend for the NY6 spot.
  • Notre Dame finishes below preseason expectations, but not by much. An 8-4 campaign should be enough to keep the Irish ranked, but not really in NY6 range.
    • Sorry, Irish. I underestimated you.
  • For the second year in a row, we won't need to worry about "contingency" bowl teams (5-7 teams...or in 2018, Liberty). Everyone will be 6-6 or better.
    • Correct. Four bowl-eligible teams stayed home.
  • For the first time since 2015, the CFP will feature 4 conference champs. And like 2015, the selection will be a no-brainer.
    • Wrong on this one. Notre Dame blew this one right outta there!
  • We will get our first 15-0 team this season. In fact, we'll know that going into the Championship Game because both teams will be 14-0!
    • TBD. If Clemson and Alabama both win their semis, then this prediction will be right on!
(sing along with me now):
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 5 closing thoughts!!
- - - - 4 Right picks 
- - -  3 Wrong predictions
- -  2 part-correct
- And 1 pick still TBD!!!

And my final closing thought: Happy Bowl Season, everybody!






1 comment:

  1. In between the final CFP rankings coming out and the NY6 being announced, I correctly predicted the Fiesta and Peach Bowl matchups. We knew that Florida and LSU wouldn't be paired as conference foes, which meant that Michigan would anchor the Peach Bowl and UCF the Fiesta (per the G5 rotation).

    I think the biggest hit against a Florida/UCF matchup was bowl location. Had UCF/G5 been destined for the Peach Bowl, we would have seen them against Florida. But it doesn't make a lot of sense to send two Florida teams all the way out to Arizona.

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