2022 Season Look-Back

 With the National Championship Game almost a week in the past, and the 2023 Week 0 games about 8 and a half months in the future, we've made it to the off-season.

I plan to do a couple of "butterfly effect" posts in the months to come, along with some other unusual looks into the past, present, and future of the sport.

But for now, I thought I'd take the opportunity to look back at the season that was, sharing some highlights and areas I'd like to see improved in the future.

Pre-Season Polls vs Final Rankings

According to The Athletic, there were a whopping 15 teams ranked in the preseason AP poll that failed to end the season that way. This breaks last year's record (14), with 1997 and 2010 rounding out the Top 4 (12 apiece).

The most epic fails are Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Baylor. All three started the season as pre-season Top 10 teams, and all ultimately finishing with losing records (the latter two after bowl losses).

While some would take this to argue against pre-season polls, I actually think this strengthens the argument of "it doesn't matter".  The underachievers and overachievers work themselves out. And as frustrating as it might be to see it take a while for unconventional teams to work their way into the rankings in September and early October, the teams ranked in the final poll have generally earned the honors.

That being said, it makes some early-season matchups much different in retrospect. For example: 

• An unranked Florida State-LSU Sunday night kickoff in New Orleans ended up a thrilling battle between two eventual ranked 10-win teams.  Next season's opener between these two in Orlando will certainly be a ranked showcase!
• Conversely, a week 2 ranked matchup between Florida and Kentucky ended up being a matchup against two teams that would finish unranked and lose their bowls in embarrassing fashion.
• Even worse, a ranked Texas A&M-Miami matchup, featured in ESPN's Saturday Night Primetime slot and called by Chris and Kirk, ended up being between two teams that weren't even bowl-eligible!
• NC State-Syracuse in October and NC State-Wake Forest in November were both ranked-vs-ranked matchups. Alas, none of the three teams would end up ranked (though NC State did finish the regular season ranked before losing its bowl).
• Perhaps the brightest example on the "positive" side.  A Week 3 matchup featured unranked Kansas State vs unranked Tulane. Both would win their conferences and appear in a NY6 bowl. Special props to Tulane, who WON their bowl in an epic comeback against USC, and finished in the Top 10!

The Positives

• Seeing Gameday make a conscious effort to go places they hadn't been previously. Appalachian State, Kansas, Jackson Sate, and Montana State all saw Gameday on campus for the first time!
• Seeing ESPN take to heart the criticisms of "too much playoff talk."  It was clear to me that more attention was being paid to the games on the field, with considerably less speculation and off-topic chatter about the "monster matchups."
• Seeing the college football community come together after two horrific tragedies: the shooting of three UVA players; and the sudden death of Mike Leach.  It was heartwarming to see the outpouring of love and support.  Some teams (Tennessee comes to mind, and I'm sure there were others) even found room on their helmets to support BOTH during their bowl game.
• Seeing more bowl games matter!  Not from the national title perspective, but from the personal perspective.  Sure, there were opt-outs.  But there were also some very notable teams and players at near-full strength (Alabama in the Sugar Bowl being a very emphatic example). I've long maintained that larger playoffs don't HAVE to come at the expense of bowl games.  Seasons like this are a great reminder of that!
• More analysts stepping up to say that the Vegas line is not the end-all, be-all for deciding who the "best" team is.  After all, if a 2-loss team with a bunch of star talent lost 2 games as a favorite, who's to say they wouldn't lose a playoff game as a favorite?
• The media and coaches NOT over-reacting to the domination of the National Championship Game. TCU ended the season #2, as they should have for making it to the game. Some fans/pundits posited that the Horned Frogs "didn't belong", or shouldn't have even been in the CFP.  I could not disagree with those pundits more, and applaud the AP (for the most part, as Rece Davis ranked TCU 6th) and Coaches Polls (again, some outliers, including UTEP's Dana Dimel ranking TCU 9th!!!) for keeping its cooler head.

Room for Improvement

• Be more intellectually honest regarding "close losses" when the team in question also has a similar number of close wins.  Alabama was the main target of this talk in 2022 after close losses to Tennessee and LSU and some people saying "2 plays from undefeated."  Thing is: Alabama also had 3 close WINS: at Texas, at Texas A&M, and at Ole Miss.  To some people's credit (Rece Davis, for one), this double-standard was pointed out during Alabama discussions.
  
• Greater consistency regarding a team's ranking after a star player's injury.  I think a lazy narrative has developed, saying that the CFP committee "will" drop a team if their star player is injured (such as Hendon Hooker and Tennessee). This served as justification for many pundits to jump 2-loss Alabama ahead of 2-loss Tennessee.
• The greater nuance of this narrative is: the committee has previously said they would drop a team IF they show to be inferior due to the missing player (2014 Ohio State and the late-season QB situation).  
• Tennessee was already losing (considerably) to South Carolina before Hooker was injured, and the Vols dominated Vandy the following week without him (a trendy Vandy team that Kirk Herbstreit picked to beat the Vols). Thus, Tennessee never truly revealed themselves as an "inferior team."
• Finding ways to reign in the "wild west" feeling of NIL and the transfer portal. I understand that before these were implemented, the sport was too tilted toward the coaches and administrators, generally at the expense of the players.  And while players undoubtedly deserve flexibility and opportunities, it would help to get controls in place before any one side (players, coaches, TV, or anybody) becomes TOO powerful.

Other Interesting Notes

• For two power conferences, their highest-ranked team in the final poll was a team that wasn't even in a NY6 bowl. The ACC's 10-3 Florida State (#11 AP), who won the Cheez-It Bowl.  And the PAC-12's  11-2 Washington (#8), winners of the Alamo Bowl.
• As was pointed out during the bowl selection weekend, only one bowl featured a matchup of conference champs: the Cure Bowl between Troy and UTSA.  Because Michigan lost to TCU, the National Championship Game failed to be a showdown between conference champs, allowing the Cure Bowl's distinction to remain intact.
• South Carolina certainly took a step forward as a program, with their November wins against Tennessee and Clemson showing that Shane Beamer has the potential to take the Gamecocks to Spurrier-level heights.  In a classic case of "what if", Gamecock fans can also wonder what if they had gained their late-season form earlier in the season. Three of their four regular season losses were to 6-6 teams (Arkansas, Missouri, Florida)! Wins against any two of them would have kept those other teams home, and probably allowed SC into a NY6 bowl of their own!
• Virginia Tech was "this" close to a ranked (at the time) win twice in Pry's first season. 
• First, against NC State, the Hokies allowed an 18-point 3rd quarter lead to turn into a 1-point loss. 
• Second, UConn upset Liberty and knocked the Flames out of the rankings a week before the Hokies would play (and beat) them in Lynchburg!
• Hopefully that last game serves as a springboard for an improved 2023!  After seeing Mike Norvell take a step up at Florida State in his 3rd year, along with South Dakota State's John Stiegelmeier win an FCS title in his 26th season, it's OK not to get instant gratification as long as there is progress!