Wednesday, December 11, 2013

CFP Primer: The Orange Bowl

Starting in the 2014 season, as the College Football Playoffs replace the BCS, the major bowls are adjusting their tie-ins.

The Orange Bowl is still the destination for the ACC champion.  If the ACC champion is in the semi-finals, then another ACC team will replace them in the Orange Bowl, unless the Orange Bowl is a semi-final.

For example, if we use the 2013 season, Florida State is the ACC champ, but will play for the national title.  If the Orange Bowl is not hosting a semi-final game, they will choose a replacement ACC team, as they did with Clemson.  However, if the Orange Bowl is a semi-final game, Clemson would not be guaranteed a spot in one of the other CFP spotlight bowls.  If FSU were not playing for the national title, and the Orange Bowl was a semi-final, then FSU would be guaranteed a spot in another CFP bowl.

But what about the opponent?  The Orange Bowl will select the highest ranked team of the SEC, Big Ten, or Notre Dame that is not already in the semi-finals, Rose Bowl, or Sugar Bowl.

Here's how they will determine that second team.  First, take the primary top 25 poll that will be used to determine CFP rankings. 

For our example here, we're using the 2012 BCS rankings.  Obviously, we will not have BCS rankings in the future, but that's all we have now.  Also, 2012 had a better mix of Big Ten and SEC teams in the polls, unlike 2013, where there were only two Big Ten teams, and neither would have been eligible for the Orange Bowl.

In 2012, Florida State was the ACC champ, and would not have been in the playoffs, so let's figure out who they would play.

Step 1:  Cross off any teams not in the SEC or Big Ten.  If Notre Dame is on the list, leave them on too.

1 Notre Dame 12-0
2 Alabama 12-1
3 Florida 11-1
4 Oregon 11-1
5 Kansas State 11-1
6 Stanford 11-2

7 Georgia 11-2
8 LSU 10-2
9 Texas A&M 10-2
10 South Carolina 10-2
11 Oklahoma 10-2
12 Florida State 11-2
13 Oregon State 9-3
14 Clemson 10-2
15 Northern Illinois 12-1

16 Nebraska 10-3
17 UCLA 9-4
18 Michigan 8-4
19 Boise State 10-2
20 Northwestern 9-3
21 Louisville 10-2
22 Utah State 10-2
23 Texas 8-4
24 San Jose State 10-2
25 Kent State 11-2



Step 2:  Cross off the Big Ten and SEC conference champs.  In this particular year, Wisconsin actually won the Big Ten, but was unranked, so they can't be crossed off the list.

1 Notre Dame 12-0
2 Alabama 12-1
3 Florida 11-1
4 Oregon 11-1
5 Kansas State 11-1
6 Stanford 11-2

7 Georgia 11-2
8 LSU 10-2
9 Texas A&M 10-2
10 South Carolina 10-2
11 Oklahoma 10-2
12 Florida State 11-2
13 Oregon State 9-3
14 Clemson 10-2
15 Northern Illinois 12-1

16 Nebraska 10-3
17 UCLA 9-4
18 Michigan 8-4
19 Boise State 10-2
20 Northwestern 9-3
21 Louisville 10-2
22 Utah State 10-2
23 Texas 8-4
24 San Jose State 10-2
25 Kent State 11-2



Step 3:  Cross off the teams in the semi-finals, most likely just #1-4.  Yes, in this example, the committee could decide to not put Florida in, and would choose another team, but for our purposes, we're sticking with just #1-4, even though two of those teams were eliminated in previous steps.

1 Notre Dame 12-0
2 Alabama 12-1
3 Florida 11-1

4 Oregon 11-1
5 Kansas State 11-1
6 Stanford 11-2

7 Georgia 11-2
8 LSU 10-2
9 Texas A&M 10-2
10 South Carolina 10-2
11 Oklahoma 10-2
12 Florida State 11-2
13 Oregon State 9-3
14 Clemson 10-2
15 Northern Illinois 12-1

16 Nebraska 10-3
17 UCLA 9-4
18 Michigan 8-4
19 Boise State 10-2
20 Northwestern 9-3
21 Louisville 10-2
22 Utah State 10-2
23 Texas 8-4
24 San Jose State 10-2
25 Kent State 11-2



Step 4:  If it's a year where the Rose and Sugar Bowls are not semi-finals, cross off the teams selected by the Rose and Sugar Bowls.   They would get first pick at replacements after the semi-finals.  The Rose Bowl would already have unranked Wisconsin from the B1G, and would not need a replacement.  Since two SEC teams are in the playoffs, the Sugar Bowl would select the highest ranked SEC team on this list.

1 Notre Dame 12-0
2 Alabama 12-1
3 Florida 11-1

4 Oregon 11-1
5 Kansas State 11-1
6 Stanford 11-2

7 Georgia 11-2
8 LSU 10-2
9 Texas A&M 10-2
10 South Carolina 10-2
11 Oklahoma 10-2
12 Florida State 11-2
13 Oregon State 9-3
14 Clemson 10-2
15 Northern Illinois 12-1

16 Nebraska 10-3
17 UCLA 9-4
18 Michigan 8-4
19 Boise State 10-2
20 Northwestern 9-3
21 Louisville 10-2
22 Utah State 10-2
23 Texas 8-4
24 San Jose State 10-2
25 Kent State 11-2


This will give us the following list:
8 LSU 10-2
9 Texas A&M 10-2
10 South Carolina 10-2
16 Nebraska 10-3
18 Michigan 8-4
20 Northwestern 9-3

Step 5:  Pick the team closest to the top of the list not crossed off.

In this example, it would be #8 LSU.

Step 6:  Look at the regular season schedule and see if there is a rematch.  If not, then the game is set.  If FSU and LSU had played during the season, then skip to the next team, but LSU gets to go to one of the other CFP spotlight bowls.

I'm sure the rematch rule is included primarily because of several cross conference rivals in the ACC and SEC, as well as the ACC's deal with Notre Dame, where they play 5 ACC teams a year.

There was also talk that Notre Dame might have access to ACC bowls with their status as a partial member of the conference.  It is plausible that they could take the ACC spot if the ACC champ is in the playoffs, but nothing has been confirmed on that front.

In the years that the Rose and Sugar Bowls are semi-final games, thus displacing the normal participants of those games, the SEC and/or Big Ten champ cannot be selected for the Orange Bowl.

During the 8 non-semifinal years of this first 12 year cycle, Notre Dame can only appear a maximum of twice, while the SEC and Big Ten are both guaranteed a minimum of three appearances each.  I wouldn't be surprised that by years 10-12, we'll be crossing off the SEC teams because the Big Ten hasn't gotten their three appearances in.

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