A New Era: Who Wins?

With July 1 just around the corner (less than 4 hours from the time of this post), the latest round of Conference Realignment will be mostly complete (with a few Group of 5 moves still forthcoming). But in general, the next "alignment era" of college football is here, and I thought I'd take a shot at who some big winners could be!

Big Ten
For Rutgers, there seems to be a bit of administrative uneasiness - which appears to have trickled down to the Head Coach.  Personally, I do see Rutgers coming in at the bottom, but not for a lack of effort.  I have to wonder just how bad this season will be.  Nothing against the Scarlet Knights, but I think things were starting to come undone in the American; and as bad as that was for Rutgers, they could be in for a rude awakening in the Big Ten East.

For Maryland, I see the Terrapins shocking some people.  They get the big games (Ohio State, Michigan State) at great times, and if they can continue their improvement they showed in 2013, there's no reason Maryland can't finish in the upper half of the Big Ten East.  Perhaps 8, 9, even 10 wins overall if the turtles catch a string of good breaks?


ACC
Welcome, Louisville, complete with props by Jennifer Lawrence.  I was impressed by this news back when it hit, and I truly believe the Cardinals will hit the ground running.  Now, I doubt they'll dethrone Florida State from the ACC (and National) throne this first time out.  And I suspect the Cardinals will take a step back (say, to 8-4 or so due to a tough non-conference game at Notre Dame) in their maiden ACC voyage.  But I do believe that they can give the Seminoles a heck of a game - perhaps FSU's toughest one of the year - and keep in the discussion for a large part of this season.


Group of Five
A handful of teams are making moves within the Group of Five.  Tulane, Tulsa, and East Carolina all jump into the American Conference and could all find themselves as contenders or also-rans quite early in the season with some meaningful August/September games.  It'll also be interesting to see if any of these teams break through the favored UCF/Houston/Cincinnati trio in 2014. Looking at the team make-up, I think East Carolina is probably in the best shape to contend, but an always tough non-conference schedule and the three aforementioned favorites look too keep the Pirates down a notch.  Tulane looks like they can maintain their momentum from a year ago, while Tulsa appears to be in a rebuilding phase.

Old Dominion and Western Kentucky join Conference USA and could also become contenders in that league (though ODU has to wait one more year before it can contend for bowls).  I don't think either team makes an immediate impact, with Marshall appearing to be an Access Bowl favorite if the Herd's favorable schedule can yield a 13-0.  But I also believe both new teams will indeed pose a formidable challenge.

The Sun Belt gains four new members - two ex-WAC teams that were Independent in 2013 (Idaho and New Mexico State), and two teams transitioning from FCS (Appalachian State and Georgia Southern).  With Arkansas State and Louisiana-Lafayette demonstrating great stability (particularly the Red Wolves, with their revolving door of head coaches), I doubt any of the new teams will take a big step up the conference standings...but then again, some interesting things can happen in the Sun Belt!


Predicted Records of all 12 moving teams:
1   East Carolina (9-3)
2   Louisville (8-4)
3   Maryland (8-4)
4   Western Kentucky (7-5)
5   Tulane (6-6)
6   Old Dominion (6-6)
7   Appalachian State (5-7)
8   Georgia Southern (5-7)
9   New Mexico State (5-7)
10 Tulsa (3-9)
11 Rutgers (2-10)
12 Idaho (2-10)